2015年2月6日，奧巴馬政府發佈了新的國家安全戰略報告，這是繼2009年美國宣布重返亞太以來的第二份報告。報告把推進亞太再平衡戰略排在第一位，把亞太地區作為美國對外政策的長期重心，並認為中美關係是對21世紀起決定性作用的夥伴關係之一。2月11日，習近平主席應約同奧巴馬總統通電話，雙方表達了在各領域展開務實合作，共同應對全球挑戰的意願，反映出中美在年初就籌劃雙方關係良性發展的姿態。

隨着中國的崛起及中國特色大國外交的展開，近年來亞太經濟格局與安全格局均出現向雙軌結構變化的趨勢。雙軌是指美國主導的一軌，以及非美國主導的一軌。亞太經濟格局的雙軌，體現為美國主導的亞太經濟體系，以及非美國主導的亞太經濟體系，後者包括東亞經濟合作和中國驅動的亞洲經濟一體化等。亞太安全格局的雙軌，則體現為美國雙邊同盟體系，以及非美國主導的地區安全合作機制，後者包括亞洲中小國家建立的多邊安全對話與合作機制和中國積極推動的多邊安全機制等。

在亞太經濟格局和安全格局的兩個雙軌結構中，均是美國主導的一軌強，而非美國主導的一軌弱，但非美國主導的那一軌處於上升勢頭。雙軌間既相互競爭又相互補充。在此新形勢下，亞太地區經濟相互依存與安全對立的主要矛盾通過中美與第三方的互動暴露出來，加劇了諸如南海、釣魚島、朝鮮半島等一系列地區安全問題，以及TPP和RCEP之間的地區經濟規則之爭，以及美國等亞太國家對中國主導的“一帶一路”建設的疑慮。因此，中美兩國優化亞太雙軌格局，增強雙軌之間的一體性和互補性，而非二元性和競爭性，使亞太既發展又安全，勢在必行。

從過去兩年的政策看，中國在2015年優化亞太格局的做法或許可概括為“一二三四，齊步走”。

一個願景，建設亞太命運共同體。習近平多次在國際場合提出要建設亞太命運共同體。2013年10月，習近平主席在印尼舉行的APEC會議上首次提出“我們要牢固樹立亞太命運共同體意識，形成各經濟體良性互動、協調發展的格局”，強調“亞太之大容得下大家共同發展”。在2014年11月的北京APEC會議上，習近平主席再次呼籲“堅持亞太大家庭精神和命運共同體意識”。估計習近平主席會在年底的菲律賓APEC會議上繼續闡述這一理念。

兩個輪子，轉動發展與安全兩個輪子。在2014年12月7日舉行的中央外事工作會上，習近平主席指出要“統籌發展安全兩件大事”，“推動建立以合作共贏為核心的新型國際關係，堅持互利共贏的開放戰略，把合作共贏理念體現到政治、經濟、安全、文化等對外合作的方方面面”。根據這一思路，估計今年中國將大力推進亞太和東亞的多邊經濟和安全合作，而既包括美國又包括中國，既包括發展又包括安全合作議題在內的東亞峰會，將變得更加重要。

三種變量，存量、增量、流量。尊重存量，是指中國尊重美國主導地位，不挑戰，不對抗，不把雙軌視為保守和改革的對立，積極建設現存的國際治理體系，最大限度使其發揮正能量。繼續增量，是指中國着力做美國不願意做或做不了的事，發揮補充性作用，比如建立亞投行，積極推進RECP談判與建設亞太自貿區等。加大流量，暢通中美對話渠道，促進中美的相互融合，促進中美及周邊國家的良性互動，比如去年7月，中國首次參與美國主導的環太平洋軍演，推進海空行為準則談判等，為今年的交流合作打下了良好基礎。

如此來看，中國的行為並不難預測，美國會如何應對呢？在世界權力重心東移亞太的背景下，奧巴馬總統邀請中、日、韓、印尼四國領導人年內訪美。不管怎樣，美國和中國是塑造亞太新格局和新秩序的關鍵力量，如果雙方都能遵守四項規範，自我剋制、相互適應、矛盾管理、共同責任，則將有利於亞太格局的優化。其實，中美新型大國關係的“不衝突、不抵抗、相互尊重，互利共贏”也同樣適用於亞太地區，如果中美雙方致力於將這16個字推進為亞太地區的共同規範，則有利於亞太雙軌格局向更加一體互補的方向發展。如果中美能通過東盟地區論壇（ARF）等平台與其他亞太國家共同探討此問題，必是極有建設意義的。

On February 6, the Obama administration issued the 2015 National Security Strategy, the second such report since the United States announced its “return to the Asia Pacific” initiative in 2009. The new report prioritizes its “pivot” to the Asia Pacific, highlights the Asia-Pacific region as a long-term focus in the U.S. foreign policy, and categorizes the China-U.S. relations as a partnership with a decisive role in the 21st century. On February 11th, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a telephone conversation with his U.S. counterpart Barack Obama, and they expressed strong willingness to carry out pragmatic cooperation in all aspects and to jointly address global challenges. All these point to a trend of sound development in bilateral relations to begin the year.

Along with China's rise and the development of major power diplomacy with Chinese characteristics, economic and security patterns in the Asia-Pacific region have shown a trend of changes towards a “dual-track structure” over the past few years. One track is the Asia-Pacific economic system dominated by the United States; the other is track is non-U.S. forces consisting of the East Asian economic cooperation and Asian economic integration initiated by China. The dual tracks of the Asia-Pacific security mechanism refer to the bilateral alliance system between the U.S. and its allies in the region; the alternative track is the regional security cooperation set up among medium-sized and small Asian countries and the multilateral security mechanisms vigorously advocated and promoted by China.

Of the dual tracks, the one dominated and promoted by the U.S. is stronger. However, a telling fact is that the one not dominated by the U.S. is gaining influence. The two tracks not only compete with each other, but also supplement each other. Under the new circumstances, a major contradiction between the economic inter-dependence and security confrontation in the Asia-Pacific region has emerged, as shown in the interaction with third parties by China and the U.S. This has led to the worsening of regional security issues such as the South China Sea, the Diaoyu Islands and the Korean Peninsula, the tussles on rules of regional trade between the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) as well as U.S. concerns over China's “One Belt, One Road” initiative. Therefore, it is imperative for China and the U.S. to optimize the dual-track pattern and strengthen their complementary features, rather than maintain a bipolar and competitive nature, so as to ensure development and security in the Asia-Pacific region.

Judging from the policies in the past two years, China's moves and plans for optimizing the Asia-Pacific security and economic structures in 2015 could be summarized as follows:

One vision to construct an Asia-Pacific community of common destiny. President Xi, on different international occasions, has proposed the construction of an Asia-Pacific community of common destiny. At the APEC meeting in Indonesia in October 2013, President Xi put forward, for the first time: “We should firmly establish an awareness of common destiny in the Asia-Pacific community, and form a pattern where all economies have good interactions and coordinated development,” and stressed that “the Asia-Pacific is the space for our joint development.” At the APEC meeting in Beijing in November 2014, Xi once again appealed to “uphold the spirit of community in the Asia-Pacific region and the awareness of building a community of common destiny.” It is widely believed that President Xi will continue to espouse this conception at the upcoming APEC meeting in the Philippines at the end of this year.

Two wheels to get the gears for development and security in motion. At the Central Conference on Work Relating to Foreign Affairs held in Beijing on December 7, 2014, President Xi stressed they must, “pursue development and security priorities in a balanced way” and “to pursue win-win cooperation and promote a new type of international relations featuring win-win cooperation, to continue to follow the win-win strategy of opening-up and a win-win approach in every aspect of our external relations such as political, economic, security and cultural fields.” With this thinking in place, it is believed that China will vigorously promote multilateral economic and security cooperation in Asia Pacific and East Asia this year, and the East Asia Summit, which encompasses both the United States and China and touches on topics of development and security cooperation, will become an important platform.

Three variables: the existing status, increment and the growing flow. By respecting the existing status, it means that China will respect the dominant role held by the United States, will not challenge or confront it, will not deem the dual tracks as the opposites to conservation and reforms, will vigorously join the construction of the existing international governance system, and will tap, to the maximum extent, the positive energy of the current system. By working to build up incrementally, it means that China will play a supplementary role by devoting effort to doing what the United States is unwilling or unable to do, such as establishing the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, pushing forward the RCEP negotiations, and building the Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific. By working to building up the growing flow, it means that channels for China-U.S dialogue will be both widened and smoothed, China-U.S. convergence will be promoted, and positive interaction between China and the U.S. as well as with neighboring countries will be promoted and elevated. For instance, China's participation (the first time ever in the Rim of the Pacific military exercise which was initiated and dominated by the U.S. in July last year) and the progress made in the discussions on the rules of behavior of military, air, and maritime activities all helped lay a solid foundation for this year's exchanges and cooperation.

Four norms: self-restraint, mutual adaptation, conflict management and shared responsibility. China's behaviors are not unpredictable, and the question is how the U.S. will respond to it. Against the backdrop of an eastward shift of world power to the Asia-Pacific region, Obama has invited leaders from China, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia to pay official visits to the United States this year. The U.S. and China are both key players in shaping the new pattern and new order in the Asia-Pacific region. If both of them can follow the four norms, it will be constructive to the optimization of the Asia-Pacific structure. As a matter of fact, the principles of “no conflict, no confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation,” in the new type of major power relations between China and the U.S. could also apply to the Asia-Pacific region. If China and the U.S. work together to apply the four norms as the common doctrine of the Asia-Pacific region, it would be beneficial for the dual-track pattern in the Asia-Pacific region to evolve and develop towards increasing integration. And if China and the US could, via the platforms such as ASEAN Regional Forum, explore and discuss the topic with other Asia-Pacific countries, it will certainly be of greater constructive significance.