美國總統選舉競爭激烈。民主黨候選人、原副總統拜登當選已經基本確定，儘管特朗普總統拒絕承認並表示要訴諸司法程序，但從目前情況看其論據嚴重不足，翻盤可能性較小。然而，兩位候選人獲得的選票數均超過奧巴馬當選得票數，且兩人選票數極其接近。這一方面反映了美國政治和社會的高度分裂和兩極化，另一方面也意味着新總統當選後，這種內部對立的彌合仍然任重道遠。

作為世界上唯一的超級大國，大選後美國外交戰略上的動態對國際關係影響極大。拜登在競選活動中已經明確展示出重回多邊主義的姿態，但他並未提及外交戰略的重點和優先地區是什麼。2009年，奧巴馬政府上台後明確提出“亞洲再平衡”戰略，筆者認為，從地區重點來說，拜登新政府在外交上將朝着“歐洲再平衡”方向發展。

“歐洲再平衡”的必要性

此次美國大選後，國際反應中一個非常讓人驚訝的現象是，在美國尚未正式確認誰最終獲勝的情況下，美國的主要盟友就以直接或間接方式承認拜登為美國下一任總統。大選後，英國、法國、德國、澳大利亞、日本等國的首腦以推特、臉書或接受媒體採訪等形式對拜登表示祝賀。即使曾被拜登調侃為“克隆了特朗普”的英國首相約翰遜，也迅速在美聯社採訪中表達了要與拜登新政府合作的明確意願。這種反常現象一方面說明美國的盟友，特別是歐洲國家對特朗普政府的確已經到了忍無可忍的地步，另一方面也反映了他們試圖迅速給拜登以國際承認，通過對美國國內政治施加“外壓”以儘快結束亂局的強烈願望。美國皮尤調查中心在2020年夏天進行的調查顯示，認為美國總統對國際形勢有正確認識的被調查者在德國僅佔10%，法國為11%，這與奧巴馬時期的超過80%相比幾乎是自由落體式下降。

當選總統拜登同樣很清楚，對美國外交來說，過去四年受損最大的不是美中關係，而是美歐關係。歐洲國家經營多年的外交成果，如應對全球氣候變化的《巴黎協定》、伊朗核問題框架協定等，都被特朗普政府無情拋棄。此外，美歐自由貿易投資協定談判已停止。美國還以撤離駐德國美軍相威脅，要求歐洲盟友支付高額軍費。美國撤出敘利亞導致當地局勢進一步惡化，更使大量難民流入歐洲。對於拜登來說，要在外交方向上重回多邊主義和國際合作，無論是伊朗核問題、氣候變化還是安全保障，首先都必須要修補大西洋兩岸關係。因此，拜登在11月10日一天之內連續與英法德三國首腦進行了電話會談。拜登在電話會談後對媒體說，美國回來了，美國不孤立。他還披露，英國首相在電話中已經邀請他參加2021年11月在倫敦舉行的第26屆聯合國氣候大會（COP26）領導人峰會。

“歐洲再平衡”對中美關係的影響

正如當年奧巴馬提出“亞洲再平衡”不意味着美國在外交上會放棄歐洲，拜登的“歐洲再平衡”同樣不會放棄亞洲，只是可能將更多精力投入到歐洲地區。因為只有抓住歐洲這個焦點，美國外交才會有較大轉機。那麼，這個轉向對於美國與亞太的關係特別是對美中關係有什麼影響呢？

第一，筆者認為，美國新政府的“歐洲再平衡”對中美在多邊領域合作的空間擴大、成果增加是一個利好，對緩和中美雙邊關係的緊張有益。最值得期待的就是在《巴黎協定》履約問題上，中美歐三邊共同引領，將為世界各國儘快設立各自的減排目標提供巨大推力。中美歐在WTO的改革和強化上增加合作，將為世界貿易帶來更多確定性。中美歐在伊朗核問題上重回多邊合作軌道，將有助於為大國協調管控重大地區熱點問題積累更多經驗。這些通過多邊合作發展的互信和協調習慣，反過來又會對中美雙邊關係產生良性影響。

第二，與此同時也要看到，美國新政府的“歐洲再平衡”也可能對中國產生新的戰略壓力。歐洲對特朗普的“美國優先”和單邊主義做法極其不滿，對他在對華政策上一味打壓、徵收高額關稅的反自由貿易原則做法也頗有微詞。然而，歐洲對中國在市場准入、國有企業改革等方面的不滿與美國是一致的，在香港等問題上美歐立場也相近。這意味着美國的“歐洲再平衡”並不等於其戰略重心會從特朗普時代的對華全面打壓完全轉移。

面對美國外交可能出現的“歐洲再平衡”，如何努力順應新形勢，趨利避害，儘可能地擴大中美歐的合作空間，提高合作質量，就顯得十分重要。逆水行舟，不進則退。

The 2020 United States presidential election was a hotly contested game. The Democratic candidate, former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, has won the election but President Donald Trump refuses to concede defeat and is attempting to overturn the result through ill-fated legal actions. There is virtually no chance that his poorly supported arguments will change anything.That said, both candidates received more votes than Barack Obama, and their vote tallies are extremely close — within about 3 percent. This reflects the high degree of political and social division and polarization in the United States, and it means that much remains to be done to heal the huge internal antagonism even after the election of a new president.

Amid the many commentaries and discussions, the question of U.S. strategic and diplomatic direction has risen to great importance. The United States is the world's sole superpower, and the strategic direction of its diplomacy and development of its strategic priorities have significant implications for international relations. On foreign affairs, Biden made it clear on the campaign trail that he would shift the focus of U.S. strategy toward multilateralism, although he didn't specify what strategic focus or regional priority the U.S. would adopt if he entered the White House. When Obama took office in 2009, he put forward a strategy known as “rebalance to Asia.” I believe a Biden administration will work to rebalance to Europe as a priority region.

Why does the U.S. need to rebalance to Europe?

After the election, a rather surprising international reaction is that major U.S. allies have recognized Biden, directly or indirectly, as the next president of the United States because of the electoral math, even before the results were officially certified. For example, the heads of state of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Australia, and Japan congratulated Biden in the form of tweets and Facebook posts or in interviews with the media. Even British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, whom Biden has called a “Trump clone,” quickly signaled his willingness to work with the new administration in an interview with the Associated Press.The anomaly indicates that U.S. allies, especially European countries, have indeed lost patience with the Trump administration. Recognizing Biden as the president-elect shows their overwhelming desire to end the international chaos caused by the United States by placing external pressure on the country's domestic politics.A public opinion survey by the Pew Research Center in the summer of 2020 found that only 10 percent of German respondents and 11 percent of French respondents believed that President Trump had a correct understanding of the international situation — a virtual free-fall from the more than 80 percent when Barack Obama was in office. Even among America's strong allies in Asia, the decline has been more than 50 percent — 53 percent in Japan and 61 percent in Australia.

President-elect Biden knows well that the biggest victim of U.S. diplomacy over the past four years has not been U.S.-China relations but U.S.-Europe relations. Diplomatic gains that European countries made through years of tireless effort have been abandoned by Trump, including the Paris agreement and the Iran nuclear deal. In addition, talks on a bilateral free trade deal have been frozen for years. The United States coerces its European allies to contribute more to military defense by announcing it would pull its soldiers out of Germany. And the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria has worsened matters locally and led to a massive influx of refugees to Europe.Biden knows that the top priority is to mend transatlantic relationships before he can shift the focus of U.S. diplomacy toward multilateralism and international cooperation on such issues as Iran's nuclear program, climate change and international security. So he spoke by phone with the leaders of the UK, France and Germany on Nov. 10 and then told reporters, “We're going to be back in the game. It's not America alone.” He also disclosed that the UK prime minister had invited him to the United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP26, set for November 2021.

What does Rebalancing to Europe mean for China?

The rebalance to Asia strategy doesn't mean that the United States will abandon its diplomacy in Europe. Similarly, a rebalance to Europe won't necessarily mean the U.S. will stop focusing on Asia. It will simply devote more resources to Europe. Why? Because only by stabilizing relations with Europe can the U.S. achieve a big turnaround in its foreign affairs. Then what does this strategy mean for U.S. ties with Asian countries, especially China?

First, a rebalance to Europe is a positive development for China-U.S. relations because both countries will have more opportunities to expand areas of cooperation and success at the multilateral level. In addition, it has the potential to ease tensions between the two countries. The most anticipated story is that China, the United States and Europe take the lead in the implementation of the Paris agreement, thus providing a strong incentive for other countries to establish their own emission reduction targets. Their enhanced cooperation on the reform and improvement of the World Trade Organization promises to add certainty there. Also, their cooperation on the Iran nuclear issue will produce more experience on how the world's major countries address hot-button issues in the Middle East. Mutual trust and coordination that the three sides achieve in the process of cooperation will in turn produce a positive impact on China-U.S. relations.

Second, Rebalancing to Europe may put new strategic pressure on China. Europe is most displeased with Trump's foreign policy stance of “America first,” as well as its unilateral actions. It is also critical of Trump's policy of suppressing China and anti-free trade principles characterized by protectionism in the form of high tariffs.At the same time, Europe shares U.S. dissatisfaction with China when it comes to market access and the reform of state-owned enterprises. It also takes a similar position on Hong Kong. All this means that in adopting a Rebalance to Europe strategy, the Biden administration will continue to place enormous pressure on China across the board, as the current administration does, and this pressure will not be slackened in an absolute sense.

For China, it is imperative to maximize the benefits and minimize the risks when expanding cooperation with the United States and adapting to a potential rebalance to Europe strategy. In this sense, the quality of cooperation between China, the United States and Europe will be a critical indicator of international relations once Biden takes office. As the old Chinese saying goes, “A boat sailing against the current must forge ahead or it will be driven back.”