美國共和黨總統候選人特朗普爆冷贏得總統大選，這一消息最初曾在伊朗以及中國多多少少掀起一陣驚喜。因為和更加咄咄逼人的民主黨總統候選人希拉里相比，一個與俄羅斯總統普京關係融洽、意識形態對抗色彩淡化的生意人特朗普似乎更有利於中美在伊朗以及中東地區開展合作。但隨着特朗普逐漸圈定其保守鷹派的內閣人員名單，並且與台灣領導人蔡英文通電話，美國國會又以壓倒性多數通過今後10年延長對伊朗制裁的法案，一度出現在伊朗及北京的喜悅情緒又逐漸被憂慮和巨大的不確定取代。

首先，特朗普及保守鷹派團隊對伊朗的強硬政策為未來美伊關係蒙上陰影。美國與伊朗關係的顯著改善、特別是伊朗核協議的達成是美國奧巴馬政府的最大外交遺產之一。對具有歷史意義的伊朗核協議，特朗普在競選時就稱之為“災難”和“最糟糕的協議”，他還威脅當選後要撕毀伊朗核協議。由於特朗普競選時的各種離奇言論不勝枚舉，而且經常出現前後不一致的情況，因此，即便是伊朗的戰略分析家此前也並不把特朗普的競選言論特別當回事，認為不能把競選言論等同於外交政策。

然而，當特朗普內閣的外交政策團隊逐步成型後，其保守鷹派的伊朗政策不得不讓伊朗人對未來美伊關係捏一把汗。如國務卿第一候選人、曾任美國駐聯合國代表的約翰•博爾頓曾多次敦促美國幫助以色列轟炸伊朗，認為伊朗才是中東地區和平與安全的主要威脅。近期他又公開呼籲美國出力，幫助推翻伊朗現政權。除了博爾頓，將出任白宮國家安全顧問一職的前美國國防情報局局長邁克爾·弗林以及美國國防部長人選詹姆斯•馬蒂斯等均是對伊朗政策的鷹派人士，一直以來都將伊朗稱為美國安全的最大威脅。因此不難想像，在上述反伊朗鷹派人士的輔佐下，特朗普的伊朗政策與奧巴馬相比必然出現巨大的倒退。

果然，對伊朗的打擊在特朗普還未正式入主白宮就已提前到來。12月1日，美國參議院以99票對1票通過了一項今後10年延長對伊朗制裁的法案，該法案之前以419票對1票在眾議院獲得通過。面對如此壓倒性的表決票數，奧巴馬已無力回天，表示將簽署這項法案。同樣沒有懸念的是，伊朗的反應是憤怒和強硬，伊朗議會絕大多數議員發表集體聲明，呼籲政府採取包括重啟鈾濃縮在內的反制措施。伊朗最高領袖哈梅內伊也發出警告，稱美國如果重新啟動對伊朗的制裁，將遭到報復。

其次，中國和伊朗都希望維護和繼續推進伊朗核協議，以穩定和儘可能小的變化來應對最具不確定性的美國新政府及其新政策。伊朗核協議的達成曾被伊朗總統魯哈尼視為“伊朗與西方關係的一個轉折點”，“將開闢伊朗與西方關係的新篇章”。核協議的達成不僅在外交層面緩和了美伊關係，使伊朗贏得了寶貴的外交空間，打破了長期以來的外交孤立，而且在地緣政治層面鞏固了其在中東地區的大國地位，在經濟層面大大緩解了經濟壓力。因此，伊朗不希望協議“紅利”得而復失，希望全力維護協議的繼續推進。而加強與中國的經貿和外交戰略聯繫，自然成為其應對美國特朗普政府外交不確定性的重要一環。

中國在長達12年的漫長伊核談判中，不僅作為伊朗核問題六國（聯合國安理會五常美國、英國、法國、俄羅斯、中國加德國）中的一員全程參與，而且參與度近年來不斷加深，貢獻率也不斷增長。中國還非常看重伊朗在“一帶一路”倡議推進中的重要節點地位。2016年1月23日，伊核協議執行剛剛一周，中國國家主席習近平就訪問了伊朗，成為近14年來首次訪問伊朗的中國最高領導人。在訪問中，習近平主席指出，中方願同伊方加強“一帶一路”框架內各領域務實合作，把能源合作作為“壓艙石”、互聯互通作為“着力點”、產能合作作為“指南針”、金融合作作為“助推器”，共同努力，推動雙邊各方面互利合作邁上新台階。一年來，無數的中國企業家代表團訪問伊朗，尋求擴大在解除制裁後的伊朗市場的商機。

除挖掘商機外，中國國防部長常萬全還於2016年11月14日訪問伊朗，並與伊朗國防部長德赫甘簽署了一項協議，兩國承諾將在防務合作、軍事經驗交流，尤其在軍事人員培養培訓方面進行全面協作。無獨有偶，當美國國會通過延長制裁伊朗的法案後，伊朗外長扎里夫訪華，在與中國外長王毅共同舉行的記者會上，中伊共同表達了堅決維護和推進核協議執行的決心。扎里夫稱“伊朗不會容忍任何國家單邊採取行動踐踏協議。”王毅外長則表示，有關伊朗核計劃的國際協議“不應受到相關國家國內情形發生變化的影響”。

總之，在錯綜複雜的中東局勢中，伊朗絕不是一個“軟柿子”可任由特朗普新政府拿捏。對伊核協議這樣一份歷經數年談判博弈並在與歐洲盟國的協商一致下才最終達成的協議，美國方面如果輕言放棄或單方面撕毀協議，那對美國自身的國際形象、國際道義以及特朗普執政後的外交開局都只能是負能量，並且會搬起石頭砸自己的腳。如果一意孤行的話，特朗普不僅會把一個失信的美國置於天下，而且在戰略上會徹底失去伊朗以及美國在中東的話語權，同時還要付出與歐洲盟國關係破裂的巨大代價。

Republican candidate Donald Trump unexpectedly won the presidential election. At the beginning, the news was more or less received as a pleasant surprise by both Iran and China. Compared with the more aggressive Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, businessman Trump, who is on good terms with Russian President Putin and has minimal ideological tendencies, seems more poised to increase China-US cooperation in Iran and the Middle East at large. But as Trump revealed his cabinet and had a phone conversation with Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen, and as the US Congress passed a bill to extend sanctions on Iran for another 10 years with an overwhelming majority, the once joyful mood in Teheran and Beijing has been gradually replaced by worries and a huge sense of uncertainty.

First, Trump and the tough policy towards Iran advocated by his team of conservative hawks overshadow future US-Iran relations. The markedly improved relationship with Iran and conclusion of the Iranian nuclear agreement in particular has been one of Obama Administration's biggest diplomatic legacies. The historic accord was described by Trump during his campaign as a 'disaster' and 'horrible agreement', which he threatened to break. With his numerous absurd comments and inconsistencies, even Iranian strategic analysts did not take Trump's statements seriously and thought that campaign speeches should not be equated to foreign policy.

However, as the future Trump Administration's foreign policy team gradually takes shape, Iranians must be seized with anxiety due to its conservative hawkish policy towards Iran. For example, Ambassador John Bolton, former US representative to the UN who was considered for Secretary of State, urged repeatedly that the US help Israel to bomb Iran, believing that Iran is the main threat to international peace and security in the Middle East. More recently, he publicly called on the US to help overthrow the current Iranian regime. Meanwhile, former Defense Intelligence Agency chief Michael Flynn was named White House national security advisor and retired general James Mattis Secretary of Defense. Both are hawks on Iran and both have been describing Iran as the biggest threat to US security. As such, it is not hard to imagine a huge policy setback when Trump's in power.

The blow actually has come before Trump enters the White House. On Dec 1, the US Senate voted 99-1 to extend sanctions on Iran for another 10 years; the bill had already been approved by the House of Representatives, 419-1. In face of such overwhelming votes, President Obama had little choice but to sign the legislation. It is equally predictable that Iran reacted in an angry and tough manner. An overwhelming majority of Iranian MPs issued a joint statement urging the government to resume nuclear activities including uranium enrichment. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, also warned that reactivation of sanctions on Iran invites retaliation.

Second, both China and Iran hope to maintain and advance the nuclear accord and to respond to the most uncertain new US administration and its new policies with stability and minimal changes to the extent possible. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani once regarded the conclusion of this agreement as a 'turning point' in Iran's relations with the West and hailed 'new chapter' in these relations. The deal relaxed US-Iran relations at the diplomatic level, winning Iran a valuable diplomatic space and breaking its diplomatic isolation. Moreover, it has strengthened Iran's position as a major power in the Middle East geopolitically, and mitigated pressures over the country economically. Iran does not want to lose these 'dividends' and needs to maintain the agreement with all its strength. Strengthening economic, trade, diplomatic and strategic ties with China has become an important link in Iran's effort to deal with diplomatic uncertainties of the incoming Trump Administration.

China took part in the protracted 12-year negotiation as a member of the six countries (P-5 plus Germany) versus Iran, with a deepened level of participation and increased contribution in recent years. China attaches great importance to Iran's position as an important node in advancing the Belt and Road development framework. President Xi Jinping visited Iran on Jan 23, just one week into implementation of the Iranian nuclear accord. He was the first Chinese head of state to visit Iran in nearly 14 years. During his visit, Xi expressed China's readiness to strengthen pragmatic cooperation in all fields within the Belt and Road framework. He described energy cooperation as a ballast stone, interconnection cooperation as a focal point, productivity cooperation as a compass and financial cooperation as a booster, urging the two sides to work together to further cooperation in all this fields. In the past year, numerous business delegations have visited Iran, seeking opportunities on the Iranian market after the lifting of sanctions.

In addition, Chang Wanquan, Chinese Minister of National Defense, visited Iran on Nov 14 and signed an agreement with his counterpart, Hossein Dehghan. The two countries vowed to have comprehensive defense cooperation, extensive exchanges in military experiences and full collaboration in training of military personnel. After the US Congress extended sanctions on Iran, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif visited China. At a joint press conference, ministers of both countries expressed determination to safeguard the agreement and advance its implementation. Zarif made it clear that 'Iran would not tolerate any country's unilateral action to violate the agreement'. His Chinese counterpart, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, said that the relevant international agreement 'should not be affected by the changing domestic situation in any country.'

All in all, in the complicated situation of the Middle East, Iran is definitely not a pushover easily bullied by the Trump Administration. Should the US easily give up or violate the Iranian nuclear accord, an agreement reached after years of negotiation and with consent of European allies, it would only be negative for the US in terms of its international image, moral high ground and Trump's start on diplomatic front. It will be like lifting a rock only to drop it on one's own feet. Trump would be showing the whole world a US that cannot be trusted. Strategically such move will cost the US from Iran to its say in the Middle East to its alliance with European countries.