我們今天所面臨世界呈現為經濟全球化、政治多極化、社會信息化、威脅多元化、文化多樣化。這“五化”相互激蕩、互為因果、相互連鎖反應並推波助瀾。在這樣的世界新秩序中，中美的國際地位以前是“一超”與“多強”（之一）的關係，現在變成“老大”與“老二”的關係。以前美國是世界警察，現在重心要回歸亞太。以前中國專註經濟發展，現在則要構建大國外交，戰略擴展、主動經營的意識增強。中美雙方在亞太地區全方位的迎頭相向，是過去百年以來的新變局，加上國內民意對政策的影響，第三方因素對中美關係的綁架，以及網絡、太空、極地、氣候等新議題的湧現，這些都決定了中美關係必須有新的框架和思維去指導，需要有新政策、新辦法，否則不經意之間容易失控。特朗普上台，正好處在中美關係發生重大變化的關頭。

應當看到，美國對華既有戰略有其內在規律和特點，不致因特朗普當選總統被全面推翻。美中關係和其他關係非常不同，是世界上最複雜的雙邊關係，二者既有包括地緣政治、意識形態、文明衝突等在內的一系列矛盾，也有經貿、區域安全、全球治理等一系列深刻合作，由此形成了深度相互依賴，所以是十分複雜的雙邊關係，要想全面顛覆不大可能。另外，經過這些年的交往，美國對中國的認識越來越成熟，自中美關係正常化以來，也形成了一些基本規律。不過，外界對特朗普比較擔心，這也不是空穴來風。

第一，中美關係發展到一個新階段。過去一些指導中美關係的基本框架似乎現在指引不了了。諸如三個《聯合公報》和三個《聯合聲明》等六個政治文件，共同規範了中美關係成功運行30、40年，但現在單靠這些已難以維繫。原因就是兩國實力對比的變化、戰略態勢的變化、戰略環境的變化、戰略基礎的變化等四大變化同時發生。因此，需要指導中美關係的既有框架與時俱進，順勢調整，否則中美關係總會讓人感到不適。中方因此提出構建中美“新型大國關係”，但美方卻沒有深入思考和應對，自身又提不出符合時代發展的新框架。特朗普上台後，很多人關注下屆美國政府會不會有什麼新思維、新框架，尤其是會不會出現某種顛覆性的戰略轉向。這是大家關注的焦點。

第二，特朗普和他的團隊人們多不熟悉。儘管特朗普說他到過中國多次也了解中國和中國人，但做生意和治國理政畢竟大不同，他的團隊尤其是涉華團隊是什麼樣的，現在還不得而知，需要觀察。基辛格評價特朗普說，特朗普是他這輩子看到過的最獨特的美國領導人。他建議特朗普任命一個不僅懂中國時政而且還要懂中國歷史文化的人來處理中國事務。這是明智的建議，否則，由於彼此都不熟悉，而且不能從戰略高度和長遠角度把握中美關係，很容易因磨合不好出問題。

第三，特朗普在競選期間確實發表了一些不利於中國的言論。他會發明什麼概念或以什麼樣的政策來應對中國，這是我們思考中美關係發展走向的一個起點。歷史地看，美國對華戰略的每一步演進，基本上首先基於中國自身實力的變化，其次是基於中國戰略包括中國意圖、中國政治方向等的變化，再次則是基於美國自身國力與國際環境的變化。

從特朗普上台的背景來說，一方面，中美實力對比拉近的趨勢還在發展，尤其是中國國際影響力在明顯提升。另一方面，美國戰略界也認定中國的政治方向、戰略意圖越來越把不準、控不住。在這種背景下，美國有一種焦慮感和緊迫感，對華用強的聲音明顯抬高。問題是美國自身現在眾多問題待解，國際格局演變也對美國地位不利，所以特朗普必須考慮這個基本事實，以更加務實、理性、包容甚至創造性的思維去制定未來的對華戰略。從中國實力和意圖角度來看，美國對中國強硬的一面在明顯抬頭，但是從美國自身能力和國際格局變化來看，它又無法全方位遏制中國。今後，必須也只能繼續在二者之間尋找某種平衡。

中國對美外交這些年也越來越成熟，開始主動和美國打交道而不是等待，所以中國領導人第一時間向特朗普發去賀電，又進行了通話。習近平主席和特朗普就中美關係未來發展進行了初步溝通，達成了包括相互尊重在內的重要共識，這就為下階段兩國關係發展指明了方向。在利馬APEC會議期間，習主席與奧巴馬總統還對中美關係過去的發展進行了全面總結。中美整體關係在美國政治過渡階段是有條不紊的。

The world today features a globalized economy, multi-polar politics, extensive application of IT in societies, diversified threats and pluralistic cultures. These five features interact and create many reverberations. In this new world order, the relationship between the US and China is evolving from one between the sole superpower and one of several major powers to one between the 'eldest' and 'second brother'. The US used to be a world policeman and now its center of gravity is moving back to the Asia Pacific. China used to focus on economic development and now is developing major-power diplomacy with a keener awareness for strategic extension and proactive management. The two countries now directly face each other in the Asia Pacific in almost all areas — a new situation not seen in the past hundred years. Additionally, new issues such as cyber, outer space, polar region development and climate have been emerging. All these require new frameworks and new thinking to guide China-US relations, otherwise the two countries may well lose control inadvertently. Donald Trump's taking office will happen at this critical moment of major changes in China-US relations.

Admittedly, America's existing China strategy has its inherent structure, laws and characteristics and will not be fundamentally overthrown with Trump's election as the next US president. Unlike many other sets of relationships, China-US relations is the most complex bilateral tie in today's world. Between the two countries, there are both a host of conflicts in geopolitics, ideology and civilization and as well as extensive and profound cooperation in economy, trade, regional security and global governance, on the basis of which a deep mutual dependence has developed. Turning that completely upside-down is quite unlikely. On the other hand, with years of exchanges, the American view about China has become more and more mature. Such basic patterns have emerged in bilateral relations since their normalization. Nonetheless, the outside world is fairly worried about Trump. The worry is not completely unfounded.

First, the China-US relationship is now in a new stage of development. Those basic frameworks that guided this relationship have become less effective. The six political documents (three Joint Communiqués and three Joint Statements) that powered successful operation of China-US relations for about four decades are no longer sufficient. This is because major changes have taken place in the two countries' balance of power, strategic posture, strategic environment and strategic basis. It is therefore necessary to follow the trend and readjust the existing frameworks of China-US relations. China has proposed to develop a new model of major-country relations, to which the US has not given in-depth thinking or response. Meanwhile the US has not been able to propose a framework that is abreast of the times. When Trump is in office, many will observe whether his administration will have any new thinking or new framework and whether there will be some disruptive strategic shifts. That will be the focus of attention.

Second, Trump and his team are not very familiar to many people. Although he has claimed that he's been to China many times and that he understood China and Chinese, governing a country is rather different from doing business. What his team (especially his China team) will be like is still unknown and yet to be observed. Kissinger described Trump as the most unique American leader in his lifetime; he advised that the next U.S. Ambassador to China should be someone who not only understands current Chinese politics but also its history and culture to handle affairs related to China, which is indeed a very wise piece of advice to Trump that could forestall problems in the future.

Third, Trump expressed views rather unfavorable towards China during his campaign.What concept or policy will Trump invent for China? This is the starting point of our thinking on the future development of China-US relations. Historically, almost every step of evolution in America's China strategy has been first of all the result of China's new strength, second based on changes in China's strategy including its intentions and political directions, and third attributable to changing national strength of the US and a changing international environment.

Against the background of Trump's election, on the one hand, the gap between Chinese and American strengths continues narrowing, with China gaining markedly higher international influence. On the other hand, the American strategic community feels increasingly unsure about China's political direction and strategic intentions. As such, the US has developed a sense of anxiety and urgency, with stronger voices emerging for showing (and using) strength with regard to China. The problem is, the US is confronted with many problems at home and the evolving international structure is not supportive of American status. Trump has to take this basic fact into account and draft his China strategy with more pragmatic, rational, inclusive and even creative thinking. Given China's strength, it's rather impossible for the US to comprehensively “contain China”. In the future, it will have to continue finding a certain strategic balance.

Chinese diplomacy towards the US has also become more and more mature in recent years. Beijing has gradually learned to engage the US rather than waiting for the latter to act. Chinese leaders lost no time to congratulate and talk with Trump. Xi Jinping and Trump had an initial conversation and agreed to respect each other, identifying the direction for bilateral relations in the next stage. During the APEC meetings in Lima, Presidents Xi and Obama comprehensively summed up the development of the China-US relationship, which has on the whole been in good order during the political transition in the US.