從加沙到烏克蘭，全球南方發出了自己的聲音，但內部分歧威脅着它的崛起。

2024年5月13日，巴西總統路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦在巴西利亞的普拉納爾托宮參加部長級會議。（檔案照片：Evaristo Sa /法新社）

最近，巴西總統路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦以加沙戰爭為由，撤回本國駐以色列大使。此舉已超越兩國外交爭端的範疇。通過表明反對以色列的立場，盧拉也在強調自己作為全球南方重要代言人的地位不斷提高。

全球南方是由發展中國家組成的多元化集團，它在一系列全球政治事務上發出越來越多的聲音，包括以色列在加沙的戰爭。實際上，另一個著名的全球南方國家南非已經率先將以色列告上國際法院，指控其在加沙實施種族滅絕。

大國在傾聽它們的聲音。今年 3 月，中國外交部長王毅在北京舉行的全國人民代表大會上表示，全球南方不再是世界事務中“沉默的大多數”。他說 ，這個由亞洲、非洲、拉丁美洲和太平洋島國的新興國家組成的多元化集團，是“國際秩序變革的關鍵力量，是百年變局的希望所在”。

那麼，2024 年是否會像他說的那樣，成為“全球南方”合作的豐收年，成為亞非拉團結的新起點？這些國家的內部團結似乎在增強，至少體現在它們對全球南方的定義及其面臨的共同挑戰和關切方面，包括加沙、烏克蘭、糧食安全、氣候變化、債務減免以及對塑造世界秩序的全球機構進行改革。

然而，尚不清楚全球南方能否將共同關切轉化為富有意義的行動。要做到這一點，它們必須解決內部分歧，應對因為大國競爭特別是中美關係惡化而走向分裂的世界。這並非易事。

如今，全球南方國家被迫做出它們不希望做出的選擇。太平洋島國地區正在上演的競爭就體現了這一趨勢。隨着中國與這些國家的經濟和安全關係不斷加深，美國及其盟伴希望通過恢復與這些國家的接觸和開設新大使館（包括在所羅門群島和湯加），來抗衡中國的影響力。事實上，中美競爭是最近舉行的所羅門群島選舉中的主要話題。

北京和華盛頓似乎有着相同的不滿情緒。中國認為，美國在破壞自己的合理合作，無論是在太平洋、非洲還是拉丁美洲。最近訪問巴布亞新幾內亞時，外交部長王毅表示，“太平洋島國有權同所有發展夥伴開展友好合作”。中國與該國簽署了一系列協議，涉及可可和咖啡出口以及加強信息和通信技術領域的合作，而這些協議都受到西方的高度關注。王毅同時表示，太平洋島國是島國人民的家園，不是任何大國的“後院”。

美國也有自己的擔憂。它認為，中國正利用與發展中國家日益擴大的經濟合作，來削弱自己的影響力。中國積極推動世界事務多極化的努力得到了全球南方國家的支持，但在華盛頓看來，這是赤裸裸的旨在削弱美國影響力的行動。中美之間的互不信任日益加深，影響到了它們和許多第三國的關係。這些國家處於尷尬的境地，不得不做出原本不希望做出的決定。

當然，全球南方內部也存在分歧。以全球南方國家內部兩個最知名成員國中國和印度為例，兩國關係目前正處於40年前關係正常化以來最嚴重的下滑階段。它們仍在參與金磚國家等多邊論壇，但目前的雙邊關係狀況顯然不利於雙方深化在擁有共同利益的多邊事務上的接觸。雙邊關係變得冷淡時，談論多邊合作就很困難，即使這種合作的空間顯而易見。

“77國集團和中國”第三屆南方首腦會議在烏干達首都坎帕拉舉行，這是一個發展中國家聯盟，旨在促進成員國的經濟利益，並在聯合國建立談判能力。（圖片：法新社）

中國和印度都已採取措施，旨在團結全球南方國家。明年，中國將主辦兩場重要的全球南方峰會：中非合作論壇和中拉論壇。兩國都在金磚國家的擴容過程中發揮了作用，吸納了埃及、埃塞俄比亞、伊朗和阿聯酋加入。今年，擴容後的金磚國家將在俄羅斯舉行峰會。

全球南方國家感覺到，它們目前面臨著一波“多重危機”。這種說法來自印度在2023 年 11 月主辦的新德里 “全球南方之聲”峰會上發表的宣言。這份宣言在西方世界沒有引起太多關注，但值得仔細閱讀。它強調了南半球國家的重點工作——就像讀一份章程，上面羅列着它們關注的問題。

峰會上提出的一項主要問題，是地緣政治衝突對糧食和能源安全的影響。人們普遍認為，北方國家更在乎讓南方國家在政治衝突中表明立場——當然最好與西方國家的立場一致——而不是解決這些衝突對發展中國家經濟、民生和安全的影響。

典型案例便是圍繞烏克蘭戰爭對糧食和能源安全影響的爭論不斷升溫，這反映出南北雙方對這場危機的看法截然不同。同樣，對於很多全球南方國家來說，加沙地帶衝突持續，體現了西方世界的虛偽。這些西方國家以前會迅速譴責發展中國家的問題，現在卻對其親密盟友以色列的問題視而不見。

同樣，在氣候變化問題上，全球南方國家在去年11 月的新德里峰會上重申，“任何國家都不應該在消除貧困和保護地球之間做出選擇”，認為這是強加給它們的。它們認為，西方國家沒有履行其財政承諾，同時卻要求發展中國家採取行動，並隨時準備對氣變問題的不作為追責。在南方國家看來，氣候行動的未來應該以公平、氣候正義和“共同但有區別的責任”原則為指導。

鑒於“全球南方國家面臨的債務脆弱性日益增加”，它們還在推動建立靈活的債務重組框架。曾經主導世界經濟的七國集團現在佔全球經濟的 30%，份額與金磚國家相同。全球南方認為，這種經濟上的再平衡並沒有帶來相應的政治再平衡，最主要的場合便是聯合國。

這些國家在尋求政治再平衡的共同立場時將面臨更加複雜的挑戰。因為全球南方國家的重要成員和支持者中國是聯合國安理會五常之一，它和美國一起抵制和拖延安理會的改革，而巴西、印度和許多非洲國家都要求進行改革，希望聯合國這個世界上最重要的安全機構能更具代表性和更加公平。當然，改革的前景似乎仍然遙遠。

如果說全球南方的未來，以及這些國家在尋求團結的道路上能走多遠，仍充滿不確定性，那麼可以肯定的是，全球南方的崛起反映出全球秩序的持續動蕩。對於世界其他地區來說，這也為解決全球重大問題提供了全新的、有價值的視角。有人認為，隨着全球南方國家的崛起，“國際領域的主要分歧”將出現在“佔據主導地位的北方國家和憤憤不平的南方國家”之間，而不是“民主國家和獨裁國家”之間。但是，全球南方國家發出自己的聲音，並不意味着南北分歧註定會擴大，只要這種聲音能夠被聽到。

From Gaza to Ukraine, the Global South is speaking out, but divides threaten its emergence.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva during a ministerial meeting at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia, Brazil, on May 13, 2024. (File photo: Evaristo Sa / AFP)

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's recent decision to withdraw his ambassador from Israel over the war in Gaza was more than just a diplomatic spat between two nations. Lula, by taking a stand opposing Israel's actions, was also underlining his growing status as a key voice of the “Global South.”

A disparate grouping of developing nations, the Global South is increasingly making its voice heard in global politics on a range of issues, including Israel's war on Gaza. Indeed, it was another prominent Global South nation, South Africa, that took the lead in bringing a case against Israel to the International Court of Justice, accusing it of committing genocide in Gaza.

Big powers are listening. The Global South is no longer “a silent majority” in world affairs, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in March during the National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing. This diverse grouping, comprising emerging nations in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Pacific Island Countries (PICs), is, as he described, a “key force for reforming the international order and a source of hope as the world undergoes profound changes unseen in a century.”

Will 2024 indeed be remembered as “a year of harvest,” as Wang put it, for the Global South and “a new starting point for unity?” There certainly appears to be a growing sense of unity, at least when it comes to how the Global South is defining its shared challenges and concerns on issues ranging from Gaza and Ukraine to food security, climate change, debt relief and, more broadly, reforming the global institutions that shape the world order.

However, it is less clear whether this broad grouping can translate shared concern into meaningful action. To do so, it will have to navigate differences from within as well as a world divided by great power rivalries – marked, especially, by worsening relations between the two biggest powers, China and the United States. This will be no easy task.

Global South countries are today being pushed to make choices they would rather avoid. The current competition underway in the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) exemplifies this trend. As China's economic and security ties with these nations deepen, the U.S., along with its allies and partners, is intensifying its efforts to counterbalance China's influence by renewing engagement and opening new embassies, including in the Solomon Islands and Tonga. Indeed, China-U.S. rivalry emerged as a major talking point during the recent elections in the Solomon Islands.

Both Beijing and Washington have grouses that appear to mirror the other's. From China's perspective, the U.S. is now looking to derail what Beijing sees as legitimate cooperation, whether in the Pacific or Africa or Latin America. "Pacific Island countries have a right to invite friendly cooperation with all development partners," Foreign Minister Wang said during his recent visit to Papua New Guinea, where both sides signed a range of agreements, from the export of cocoa and coffee to working more closely on information and communication technology – agreements scrutinized by the West. "Pacific Island countries are the home of the people in this region,” he said. “They are not the backyard of any major country.”

The U.S. has its concerns too. From America's point of view, China is using its broadening economic cooperation with the developing world to actively undermine American influence. China's push to increase multipolarity in world affairs – a push backed by much of the Global South – is seen in Washington as a thinly-veiled attempt to dilute U.S. influence. This deepening distrust between China and the U.S. is now affecting their relationships with many third countries, now put in the uncomfortable position of having to make choices they didn't sign up for.

To be sure, there are also differences from within. Consider two of the Global South's arguably most prominent members, China and India, currently navigating the worst downturn in bilateral relations since they normalized their relations four decades ago. While China and India do remain engaged in multilateral fora such as BRICS, their current state of bilateral relations is certainly not conducive to deepening engagement on multilateral issues where they share undeniable common interests. But when ties at the bilateral level are frosty, it is difficult to talk about multilateral cooperation, even if the space for it is certainly evident.

The G77 plus China, which is holding its third summit in Kampala, is a coalition of developing countries designed to promote its member states’ economic interests and create negotiating capacity in the United Nations. (Photo: AFP)

Both China and India have taken steps aimed at bringing Global South countries together. China, in the coming year, will host two key Global South summits – the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) as well as the China-Latin American and Caribbean Forum (China-CELAC). Both countries have played a role in the expansion of BRICS, bringing on board Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates, with the newly expanded BRICS set for a key summit this year in Russia.

The feeling among Global South countries is that they are currently facing a wave of “multiple crises,” as a statement declared following the “Voice of the Global South Summit” hosted by India in November 2023 in New Delhi. The declaration that followed the summit did not get much attention in the West, but it merits close reading. It highlights the key priorities for southern hemisphere nations, reading almost as a charter listing the issues that matter to them.

One key concern flagged at the summit was the impact on food and energy security from geopolitical conflicts, with the widespread impression that the Global North is more concerned about getting the Global South to take a stand on political conflicts – in alignment, of course, with Western positions – while not addressing how those conflicts were impacting the economies, livelihoods and security of the developing world.

The evolving debate surrounding food and energy security impacts from the war in Ukraine is a case in point, reflecting somewhat contrasting perspectives of the crisis from the North and the South. Likewise, the ongoing conflict in Gaza has become emblematic of Western hypocrisy for many in the Global South, with countries that were quick to denounce developing countries' shortcomings now turning a blind eye to one of their close allies.

Similarly, on climate change, Global South countries reiterated in the November summit, that “no country should have to choose between fighting poverty and fighting for our planet” – a choice that many nations believe is being foisted on them. They see the West as not living up to its financial commitments, but at the same time demanding action and all-too-ready to apportion blame for inaction. The future of climate action, in the South's view, should be guided by the principles of equity, climate justice and “Common but Differentiated Responsibilities.”

In light of “increasing debt vulnerabilities faced by countries of the Global South,” they are also pushing the need for flexible debt restructuring frameworks. The G7, which once dominated the world economy, now accounts for 30% of it – the same as the BRICS nations. The Global South view is that this economic rebalancing hasn't been matched by political rebalancing, starting at the UN.

Finding a common position on political rebalancing promises to present an even more complex challenge, considering that one prominent Global South member and supporter – China – is among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, along with the U.S., resisting and delaying UNSC reforms, which countries, including Brazil, India and many in Africa, are demanding, to make the world's most important security institutions more representative and fairer. That prospect, of course, still appears remote.

If the future of the Global South – and how far its constituents can go in their search for unity – still remains far from certain, what is clear is that its emergence reflects the continuing churn in the global order. For the rest of the world, it also presents a new – and valuable – perspective on the global issues that matter. Some have suggested that with the emergence of the Global South, “the central divide in the international sphere” will be between “the dominant North and the aggrieved South,” rather than that between “democracies and autocracies.” The Global South finding its voice does not necessarily imply a widening of the undeniable divides that exist between the North and the South – so long as the voice is heard.