美國在台協會開幕式（圖片來源：美國在台協會）

據近日美國多家媒體報道，美國海軍計劃以所謂“航行自由”行動為名，派遣其太平洋艦隊於11月在台灣海峽和南海海域開展一系列“展示武力”的軍事演習，以“警告中國並展示美國有能力對抗其軍事行動”。在美國將中國作為全面戰略競爭對手、中美貿易爭端日益加劇的大背景下，在美國海軍剛剛在南海執行所謂“航行自由”行動並進入我南沙部分島礁12海里以內海域以及台灣即將進行地方選舉之際，美國軍方釋放出這樣的消息，無疑對當前中美關係和台海局勢的穩定產生負面影響，台海發生危機的概率陡增。

美國系列“挺台”舉動背後蘊深意

特朗普執政以來，美國逐步調整其對台政策，在口頭宣稱遵守“一個中國”政策的同時，重視美台關係，意欲提升台灣在遏制中國大陸崛起中的“棋子”價值。首先，特朗普執政後的首份《國家安全戰略》報告不僅將中國列入其“主要戰略競爭對手”，同時也把台灣納入“印太戰略”，拉攏台灣對抗中國的意圖明顯。其次，連續出台了多個涉台法案，為擴大美台官方和軍事交流立法鋪路。再次，不顧中國的強烈反對，批准總額約為3.3億美元的對台軍售案，增加兩岸不穩定因素。此外，針對薩爾瓦多等三個中美洲國家與台灣“斷交”，與中國建交，指責中國“破壞現狀”，並召回美駐三國大使，威脅採取“報復”行動等。這一系列所謂“挺台”舉動條條呈現出美國旨在遏制中國發展的戰略意圖。

台地方選舉再添變數，台海局勢火上澆油

11月底，台灣將舉行地方選舉，目前各方力量競爭激烈。此次選舉被視為2020年台灣領導人選舉的“風向標”，也關係到國民黨能否重新贏回台灣民眾的信任。在美國看來，民進黨繼續執政，更有利於美國控制台灣配合其遏制中國的政策，以便在兩岸關係中撈取戰略利益。因此，在這個敏感時刻，美國釋放在台灣海峽和南海軍事演習的消息，如實施，一方面可兌現其對盟國和台灣的安全承諾，同時達到所謂的“航行自由”行動目的，另一方面，可對中國大陸“秀肌肉”，展現其遏制中國的決心。對民進黨而言，如果美國在台灣海峽舉行軍演，中國大陸基於維護國家主權和領土完整的核心利益，勢必會予以回應和反制，台海局勢再度緊張或不可避免。而民進黨則會依據其以往“套路”，肆意渲染炒作“中國大陸威脅台灣”，操縱民意，以期贏取選舉。

美國對台政策或又將“口惠而實不至”

美國對台政策服務於對華戰略和目標。回顧歷史不難看出，美國的“挺台”政策有“口惠而實不至”的先例。里根總統在競選期間批評卡特政府與台灣“斷交”，並聲稱當選後將支持重建與台灣的“官方關係”，甚至在當選後邀請台灣代表團參加其就職典禮。但執政後，基於美國的利益訴求，改變了其競選時的承諾，不但沒有與台灣重建“官方關係”，甚至還簽署了限制美對台軍售的《九一八公報》。縱觀特朗普政府，雖然通過了系列涉台法案，但多以不具強制執行力的“國會意見”為主，且目前為止並未有實施的跡象。相反，特朗普當選之初即質疑美國從保護台灣中可以獲得什麼？因此，美國的諸多所謂“挺台”政策，不過是對華政策的一個手段。在當前形勢下，雖然美國利用台灣問題遏制中國的意圖增強，但隨着中國實力的增長，美國利用台灣問題遏制中國的能力逐步減少。作為“棋子”的台灣，在中美較量中勢必會失去自主權和話語權，更不用妄談台灣所謂的“利益”。

保持足夠定力，提升掌控台海局勢的能力

“樹欲靜而風不止”。面對當前中美關係由貿易爭端向全面戰略博弈轉變和形勢嚴峻的兩岸關係，中國應保持足夠定力和清醒認識。一方面，美國將中國作為“主要戰略競爭對手”和利用台灣遏制中國發展的策略不會變，將會繼續以各種方式“支持”台灣，挑戰“一個中國”原則，謀求其戰略利益。另一方面，台灣民進黨當局的“台獨”政策不會變，將會繼續在島內實行“台獨”分裂活動，謀求長期執政的政治利益。因此，未來無論是面對美國的對台政策調整和“挺台”動作挑釁，還是面對台灣島內執政當局的兩岸政策變化和“台獨”分裂活動，中國都應遵循以下原則來應對。首先，堅守體現“一個中國”原則的“九二共識”的底線。“一個中國”原則是中國處理中美關係和兩岸關係的基本原則，是兩岸和平發展的基石。中國有捍衛“一個中國”原則的決心和能力。面對任何違反“一個中國”原則的行為和分裂活動的挑釁，中國都應堅守底線，表明立場，及時回擊。其次，切實履行好各項對台政策，促進兩岸經濟社會融合發展。再次，提升中國的綜合實力，增大中國大陸對台灣的向心力，提升掌控台海局勢的能力。最後，對美國的涉台行動和台灣當局的分裂活動應及時跟蹤、準確研判，早做應對預案。

American Institute in Taiwan Opening Ceremony (Picture Credit: American Institute in Taiwan)

According to multiple American media reports, the US Navy is planning to dispatch its 7th Fleet to conduct a series of military drills at the Taiwan Straits and South China Sea in the name of "freedom of navigation" in a show of force to "warn China and demonstrate that the US is capable of confronting their military actions". As the US takes China as a strategic competitor, China-US trade disputes intensify and Taiwan prepares for local elections, such a message from the US military will undoubtedly have a negative impact on China-US relations and stability in the Taiwan Straits, and the probability of a new crisis over Taiwan has suddenly increased dramatically.

What's behind the US' pro-Taiwan stunts?

Since Donald Trump assumed the US presidency, the US has gradually adjusted its Taiwan policy. While stating its commitment to the "one China" policy, it has paid greater attention to relations with Taiwan, intending to increase Taiwan's value as a pawn in containing the rise of Beijing. First, the first "National Security Strategy" of the Trump administration not only defines China as a "major strategic competitor", but also incorporates Taiwan into its "Indo-Pacific strategy", showing an obvious intention to woo Taiwan and confront China. Second, it has passed multiple Taiwan-related laws, paving the way for expanding official and military exchanges with Taiwan. Third, in disregard of the mainland's strong opposition, it approved a $330 million arms sales package for Taiwan, increasing factors of instability across the Taiwan Straits. Besides, it blamed the mainland for El Salvatore and two other Central American nations' switch of diplomatic recognition from Taiwan, accusing the latter of "sabotaging the status quo", recalled ambassadors to the three countries, and threatened to take "retaliatory" actions. Such pro-Taiwan moves indicate the US' strategic purpose to contain China's development.

Local elections in Taiwan see deterioration in cross-Straits relations

Taiwan is to hold local elections at the end of November, for which various factions are competing fiercely. The elections are considered the "wind vane" for the island's 2020 presidential election; they may also determine whether the Kuomintang can win back voter confidence. From the US perspective, it will be more conducive to its control over Taiwan and ensuring the latter cooperates with it in containing China if the Democratic Progressive Party continues to rule Taiwan. That way the US can continue profiting from the cross-Straits standoff. Therefore, at such a sensitive juncture, the US releases conducts military exercises near the Taiwan Straits and in the South China Sea. Once that is put into practice, it will on one hand honor US security commitments to its allies and Taiwan, while carrying out "freedom of navigation" operations; on the other hand, it can show its muscles to the mainland, demonstrating its capability to contain the latter. If the US conducts drills in the Taiwan Straits, the mainland will inevitably respond and based on its core interest in preserving its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and tensions may be inevitable between the two sides of the Straits. The DPP will, like it did before, take advantage of such tensions and spread fears of a "mainland threat" and manipulate public opinion so as to win the elections.

Trump's Taiwan rhetoric may be just lip service

US Taiwan policy serves its China policy. There have been times when "pro-Taiwan" US policies ended up being just empty talk. On the campaign trail, Ronald Regan had criticized the Carter administration for cutting ties with Taiwan, and promised to support restoring "official relations" with Taiwan, even invited a Taiwan delegation to his inauguration. After assuming office, however, based on US national interests, Regan not only didn't rebuild "official relations" with Taiwan, but even signed the September 18 Communiqué that restricted arms sales to Taiwan. Although the Trump administration has passed a series of Taiwan-related acts, most of them were "Congress opinions" that are essentially not legally binding, and so far there is no sign they will be implemented. On the contrary, soon after getting elected, Trump questioned what the US could get from protecting Taiwan. The various so-called "pro-Taiwan" US policies, therefore, are just tools for its China policies. Under present circumstances, though the US has a stronger intention to contain China with Taiwan, it is increasingly incapable of doing it as China's might grows. Taiwan as a pawn will inevitably lose autonomy and say in China-US competition."

Stay poised and consolidate control over the Taiwan issue

"The tree may crave calm, but the wind will not subside." Facing the reality that China-US relations are turning from trade disputes to comprehensive strategic competition and deteriorating relations across the Taiwan Straits, China must show composure and maintain a cool head. On one hand, the US strategy of taking China as a "major strategic competitor" and using Taiwan to contain China's development will not change, and the US will continue to "support" Taiwan in various manners, challenge the One China principle, and pursue its own strategic interests. On the other hand, the DPP in Taiwan will not change its independence-oriented policies, will continue to engage in activities targeted at splitting Taiwan from China, and strive to sustain its rule. Therefore, in the face of changes in US Taiwan policy and "pro-Taiwan" provocations, or changes in Taiwan authorities' mainland policies and independence-oriented moves, the mainland should adhere to the following principles. First, hold fast to the "1992 consensus" as a bottom line that embodies the One China principle, a cornerstone of peace and development across the Straits. In the face of any actions in violation of the One China principle and any separatist provocations, China should secure the bottom line, clarify its position, and fight back in a timely manner. Second, make sure all policies tailored for Taiwan are implemented well, and promote integrated economic and social development across the Straits. Third, raise the country's comprehensive strength, increase the mainland's appeal to Taiwan, upgrade its own capabilities for controlling the situation in the Straits. And last, closely monitor the US' Taiwan-related actions and the Taiwan authorities' separatist activities, make informed judgments, and prepare contingency plans as early as possible.