2018年以來，中美貿易摩擦不斷升級。特朗普當選美國總統後，試圖遏止經濟全球化的大趨勢，改變貿易合作，扭轉貿易逆差。特朗普聲稱美國在“全球化”中“輸了”，來自中國的進口搶走了美國人的工作機會。而2018年美國政壇將迎來中期選舉，特朗普出於政治目的，更是不斷對中國挑起貿易糾紛。

首先，我們認為，中美經貿摩擦的根源在於中美兩國各自國內的政治經濟格局都發生了深刻變化。美國國內“精英的美國”與“傳統的美國”激烈博弈，雙方唯一一致的靶子就是中國，而中國在十八大以來，自身發展道路和體制已然清晰，邁入了社會主義現代化發展的新時代。中美兩國的這種改變讓特朗普總統上台以來的中美關係發生了本質性的變化，這是我們必須面對的客觀事實。

第二，面對貌似嚴峻的形勢，必須明晰底線。我們認為，中美關係並不會走向全面對抗，而中美貿易摩擦的成本我們完全可以承擔。一是中美利益深度交融，美國跨國公司在中國擁有廣泛的、關乎公司發展根基的重要利益，美國享受美元霸權體系紅利亦需要中國的支持和參與； 二是目前以特朗普總統為代表的、在美國佔上風“傳統的美國”與“新時代的中國”的訴求在戰略上是互補的，特朗普總統代表的美國所希望“減倉”的，如擴展全球貿易、改善氣候變化、改革全球治理等，是當前中國所希望“加倉”的。三是，我們認為中方能夠做到以史為鑒，精準管控分歧，不給極端派、挑釁者任何可乘之機，不會擦槍走火。

第三，面對中美經貿摩擦所帶來的影響與衝擊，必須保持戰略定力。短期內，中方需要把握主動權，以戰促合，可以在中美貿易順差問題上盡量甚至超預期地滿足特朗普的要求，換取特朗普在中國核心利益上的讓步，但是對於“精英的美國”所提出的阻礙中國經濟升級的無理要求，則必須予以堅定的拒絕。長期來看，中方要做好持久準備，防止輿論放大不理性的認知，同時苦練內功，以最大的決心精準落實各項改革方針大略。

最後，我們認為，如果應對得當，中美經貿摩擦將會“磨和”出中美合作的新格局。這個中美合作的新格局有三個重要標誌，即美方的“三個接受”。第一，必須接受中國與美國發展道路不同、中國不可能走西方式政治經濟發展道路的事實，中美雙方“和而不同”；第二，必須要接受人口第一大國和即將成為的經濟第一大國在周邊事務所擁有的主導力；第三，必須接受中國在改善全球治理中發揮與美國及西方“和而不同”、積極有為的、共利多贏的新型領導力。中美合作關係的新格局必須也一定能夠形成，這是中華民族偉大復興的破繭之工。

（摘自清華大學中國與世界經濟研究中心2018年7月8日的中美經貿關係戰略報告）

China-US trade frictions have continuously escalated since the beginning of 2018. After assuming the US presidency, Donald Trump has attempted to curb the general trend of economic globalization, change trade cooperation, and reverse trade deficits. He claims the US has “lost” in “globalization”, and that imports from China have robbed Americans of their jobs. As mid-term elections unfold in the US, he has constantly intensified the trade spat with China out of political considerations. Now what can we expect from China-US relations? Here are brief findings from our research.

First, we believe China-US economic friction is rooted in the fact that profound changes have taken place in the domestic politics and economics in both countries. In the US, while the “elite America” and “traditional America” engage in fierce wrangling and cannot reach any compromise on almost all issues, China is their sole common target. China, on the other hand, has demonstrated a clear development path and institutional arrangements since the Communist Party of China's 18th National Congress, striding into a new era of socialist modernization. Such changes have led to substantive changes in bilateral ties after Trump assumed office, which is an objective reality we cannot afford to ignore.

Second, both sides need to understand and avoid the worst case scenario. We believe China-US relations will not head towards all-out confrontation, while China can manage the damage from trade friction with the US. One reason is that Chinese and US interests are deeply entwined. For instance, US transnational corporations have important interests in China that are critical to the foundation of their development and China's support and participation are indispensable for the US to enjoy the dividends of the US dollar hegemony. The second reason is the appeal of the Trump-led “traditional America”, which is having the upper hand at home, and that of the “new-era China” are strategically mutually complementary. That is, the Trump-represented America wants to withdraw from things such as expanding global trade, harnessing climate change, and reforming global governance, while China seeks to participate more actively. The third reason is we believe the Chinese top leadership has solid control over the country, and are capable of drawing lessons from history, precisely managing and controlling any potential provocations from extremists and opportunists.

Third, strategic composure must be maintained in the face of the influences and shocks from China-US economic friction. In the short term, the Chinese side needs to take the initiative and promote cooperation through a limited trade war. It can more than satisfy President Trump's demands on the matter of US trade deficits in exchange for the latter's concessions on core Chinese interests. But it must resolutely refuse the unreasonable requests the “elite America” has made in order to hinder China's economic upgrade. In the long term, the Chinese side should prepare for the long haul, prevent public opinion from amplifying irrational ideas, and at the same time work hard to implement reforms with maximum resolve.

Last, we believe, handled properly, China-US economic friction may give birth to a new pattern of bilateral cooperation. Such a pattern will have three main hallmarks, i.e. “three acceptances” on the part of the US. 1) The US must accept the fact that China and the US have different development paths, and it is impossible for China to follow a Western path of political and economic development. China and the US should seek peaceful co-existence despite their differences. 2) The US must accept the fact that China will play a primary role in its surroundings regions, since China is the most populous country and will soon be the largest economy. 3) The US must accept a new type of leadership from China in improving global governance. This leadership is proactive, aimed at win-win scenarios as well as peaceful co-existence with the US and West despite differences. On the Chinese side, the country needs to be more transparent in the role of the government in promoting economic development and technologic progress and more open to foreign investment and trade. China also needs to articulate even more clearly its core interests and strategic intention in a language accessible to the Western world.We have confidence that the new pattern of China-US relationship will eventually shape up. It is an essential move for the China dream.

(Excerpted from the “Strategic Report on China-US Economic and Trade Relations”, Center for China in the World Economy (CCWE), Tsinghua University).