法國大選被認為是2017年歐洲乃至世界上最重要的選舉，其影響不僅僅決定法國發展走向，而且對歐盟的前途命運具有決定性影響。正因為如此，法國大選一直受到國際上的高度關注。

5月7日，法國中間派、前進運動候選人埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍在第二輪投票中擊敗極右翼國民陣線候選人瑪麗娜·勒龐，以大幅優勢當選法蘭西第五共和國第八任總統。馬克龍當選讓歐洲國家大大鬆了一口氣。在第一時間歐盟各國以及歐洲理事會、歐盟委員會、歐洲議會均向馬克龍表示祝賀。美國也很快做出反應。特朗普總統在自己的推特上表示，“祝賀埃馬紐埃爾・馬克龍以一場大勝當選新一任法國總統。我非常期待與他進行合作。”

馬克龍已宣布，他的第一個出訪國家將是德國。但對於這位39歲的法國新總統來說，未來5年他面臨的最主要挑戰將來自國內。法國實行半總統半議會制，總統負責外交、安全，總理負責經濟和內政事務，而總理及其領導的內閣則是由議會推舉。這意味着如果總統和總理不是來自於同一政黨，總統的政策主張將得不到議會通過批准，總統的權力將受到明顯掣肘。因此對於馬克龍來說，眼下最重要的任務就是要力爭其領導的新改名的“共和國前進運動”在6月11、18日舉行的議會選舉中取得多數席位。

如果說，法國第一輪大選決定的是法國要不要改革，第二輪大選決定的是如何改革，那麼接下來的議會選舉（也可以稱為第三輪大選）決定的則是改革能走多遠。法國近年來飽受經濟增長疲軟和失業率高企之苦，2016年法國經濟僅增長了1.1%，今年預計增長在1.3%和1.5%之間，失業率高於歐盟平均水平達到10%，25歲以下年輕人的失業率更高達25%。與此同時，自2015年以來法國遭遇了數次重大恐怖襲擊，239人喪命。法國社會瀰漫著悲觀、失望和憤怒的情緒。前任法國總統薩科齊、奧朗德均未能使改革取得進展，現在改革的重任落到了馬克龍肩上。他承諾將把刺激經濟增長、增加就業、放寬勞動力市場作為其首要任務。人們普遍認為，如果馬克龍改革失敗，勒龐5年後將很可能捲土重來。

儘管馬克龍將會投入大量的精力推動國內改革，其在外交上也會力爭有一番作為。對於這位以親歐為主要特徵的法國新總統來說，外交上的首要任務是重啟法德發動機。歐盟近年來面臨的各種危機之所以得不到有效應對，與法德發動機在一定程度上的熄火有關係。過去數年由於深陷經濟社會安全困境，法國已經難以承擔領導歐盟的責任。德國雖然扮演了歐盟事實上的領導者角色，但沒有法德共同協力推動，歐盟很難形成合力應對各種挑戰。對於歐盟來說，亟待解決的問題之一是歐元區治理問題。歐債危機爆發後歐元區曾一度面臨解體危機。馬克龍在競選期間表示，他將推動統一歐元區預算、設立歐元區財政部長。但這一主張會遭到德國的反對。在難民危機、打擊恐怖主義等方面，法國和德國將能夠帶領歐盟其他國家開展積極有效的合作。針對近年來歐洲出現的民粹主義思潮，德國總理默克爾提議歐盟一體化可以採取“多速歐洲”的發展模式，在這一問題上馬克龍和德國的想法是相同的。事實上這也是目前歐盟唯一可行的一體化發展途徑。總體上來看，法國在歐盟內的影響力的回歸將主要有賴於未來幾年法國經濟的重振。

馬克龍上台對歐俄關係的影響目前還不非常清楚。在歐盟內法國一直主張與俄羅斯保持合作關係，但烏克蘭危機後多數歐盟國家的對俄態度趨於強硬。此次法國總統大選其他幾個候選人如共和黨候選人菲永、國民陣線候選人勒龐均被視為親俄派。馬克龍將傾向於與德國等國協調達成共同的歐盟立場。這意味着歐俄關係不會很快實現轉圜。

對美關係將是馬克龍領導的法國的外交重點。儘管美國總統特朗普可能希望勒龐獲勝，但如前所述特朗普已在第一時間向馬克龍表示祝賀，並在8日與馬克龍通電話時強調，他願意與馬克龍展開緊密的合作、共同應對挑戰。特朗普同時表示，法國是美國最長久的盟友之一，兩國有着長久、堅實的合作歷程。兩位領導人同意在5月25日出席在比利時布魯塞爾舉行的北約峰會期間舉行雙邊會晤。預計反恐以及北約未來發展將成為法國未來合作的重點。但在氣候變化、經濟全球化等問題上馬克龍和特朗普的分歧也將存在。

馬克龍當選後中國國家主席習近平表達了願意與法國發展關係的意願。在競選期間，馬克龍強調了與中國加強合作的重要性。他喜歡引用鄧小平的“不管白貓還是黑貓抓住老鼠就是好貓”的思想，可見他是一位務實家。長期以來中法合作不僅限於雙邊，在歐洲以及國際多邊層面，中法一直保持着良好的合作。相信未來不論是經濟、文化、安全領域還是全球治理，中法合作都將得到擴展和深化。

The 2017 presidential election of France has been viewed as the most important election of the year for Europe and even the world. It would determine not just the future of France but also make a decisive impact on the destiny of the European Union. It is precisely because of this that the election has received an unusual amount of international publicity.

On May 7, centrist candidate from the En Marche movement Emmanuel Macron defeated far rights candidate from the National Front, Marine Le Pen, in a run-off election with an impressive lead to win the eighth presidency of the French Fifth Republic. Macron's election victory was met with a big sigh of relief in European capitals. Among those that showered immediate congratulations on Macron were the Council of European Union, the European Union Commission and the European Parliament. American response was also very quick. President Trump tweeted congratulations to Macron on his big win and said he looked very much forward to working with him.

Though Macron indicated that his first foreign visit would be to Germany, this 39-year-old new president would meet his most formidable challenges in the next five years from none other than his native country. France has a half-presidential and half-parliamentary system. The president would take care of foreign policy and security matters while the prime minister tends to economic and internal affairs. But the prime minister and his cabinet are appointed by the parliament. This means that if the two top leaders are not from the same political party, the president's policies or propositions may not get passed by the parliament, leading to a serious limit of presidential authority. The most pressing task for Macron right now, therefore, is to lead his “Republic on the Move”, renamed from the earlier En Marche, to win as many seats as possible in the parliamentary election scheduled for June 11 and 18.

If the first-round election was to decide whether France needed reform at all and the run-off election was about how such a reform would be conducted, then the forthcoming parliamentary election, often called the third round election, would decide the pace and extent of that reform. In recent years, France has suffered immensely from sluggish growth and high unemployment rate. Its economy, up by only 1.1% in 2016, is expected to grow by some 1.3% to 1.5% this year. Its 10% unemployment rate is higher than the EU average, with jobless rates for youth below 25 running as high as 25%. What is more, France has been hit by multiple large-scale terror attacks since 2015, claiming a total of 239 lives. The mood of the country was one of helplessness, disappointment and anger. Both Sarkozy and Hollande failed to push forward the needed reform, a job that is now on Macron's shoulders. The new president has pledged to revitalize economic growth, increase employment and deregulate the job market. As people widely believe, if Macron also failed in his reform, Le Pen is likely to stage a comeback five years from now.

True, Macron will focus an enormous amount of resources on domestic reform. But he will also try to accomplish something big in foreign affairs. As a pro-EU president of France, Macron will make the restart of the Franco-German engine his primary task. The sputter of that engine, is why EU has failed to respond as effectively to its multiple crises in recent years. France, owing to years of economic, social and security predicament it found itself in, could hardly shoulder the responsibility of leading the Union. Germany, though playing the role of de facto leader, found the job exceptionally challenging without the synergy of the Franco-German collaboration. For the EU, nothing is more imperative than the governance of the Euro Zone, which was once on the verge of complete unraveling after the outbreak of the European debt crisis. Macron, while campaigning for presidency, indicated readiness to unify budget procedures in the Euro Zone and set up the post of the Euro Zone finance minister, a position that Germany is likely to oppose. With respect to addressing the refugee crisis and cracking down on terrorism, France and Germany are likely to collaborate and lead the rest of EU in effective cooperation. In response to rising populism in Europe, Chancellor Merkel proposed that a “multispeed” model be followed in the pursuit of European integration, a position that Macron may embrace as well. In fact, it is the only practical way to solve the integration issue. But the return of French influence within EU, on the whole, requires the successful revitalization of French economy in the next few years.

The likely impact of Macron presidency on EU-Russia relations is still quite murky. France has been an advocate of cooperative EU-Russia relations. But the Ukrainian crisis has hardened the attitude of most EU members toward Russia. During the recent presidential election in France, several candidates, such as Fillon of the Republican Party and Le Pen of the National Front, were considered too pro-Russian. Macron might opt for a common EU position on Russia through coordination with other member countries such as Germany, which makes an early improvement of EU-Russia relations highly unlikely.

Relations with the US will be a diplomatic priority for France under the Macron presidency. Though President Trump may have preferred a Le Pen win, he immediately congratulated Macron on his successful election and, in his telephone conversation on May 8, he pledged close cooperation with the new French president to take on their common challenges. Trump also mentioned that France was one of the longest-standing allies of the US with a history of prolonged and solid cooperation. The two leaders agreed to hold bilateral meeting at the NATO summit in Brussels scheduled for May 25. It is predicted that anti-terrorism and future development of the transatlantic alliance will dominate France-US cooperation in the future. Yet such issues as climate change, economic globalization and others may continue to divide the two leaders.

Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed readiness to develop relations with France in the wake of Macron's election. During the election campaign, Macron emphasized the importance of stronger French ties with China. He often quoted Deng Xiaoping's idea -“I don't care if a cat is white or black as long as it can catch mice” - which shows that he himself was a pragmatist. Far from being just bilateral, China-France cooperation has long since extended into multilateral and other dimensions with European and even global ramifications. I believe that the sound cooperation between the two countries will continue on the existing basis and keep increasing in the economic, cultural, security and global governance areas in both scope and depth.