中國共產黨第十九次全國代表大會召開前夕，學界研究和媒體報道都把焦點集中在習近平個人或中共內部不同派系的權力鬥爭上。然而，習近平再次當選為中共中央總書記，並不會從根本上帶來太多政策轉變。在過去五年中，習近平推出了多個政治計劃，而在其執政的第二個任期中，習必須開始啟動並加速推進這些計劃的實施。為了更好地理解中國未來的發展方向，審視習近平提拔的、在未來五年貫徹其戰略的官員們至關重要。

習近平用人的大趨勢是什麼？簡單來說，就是科技官僚捲土重來，並在中國經濟發展戰略中扮演關鍵角色。但這次，他們並非來自諸如石油或機械製造等傳統產業，而是來自高科技或所謂的戰略新興產業。通過將先進的軍事科技應用於民間領域，並將軍事工業與本土經濟發展融合，這些官員將在未來十年為中國經濟發展創造新引擎。為達成目標、追趕美國，中國向軍事工業投入了巨額資源，積累了大量先端科技儲備。一些專家認為，軍事工業甚至可能成為中國未來科技創新的主要動力，以及推動經濟發展的主導力量。

科技兩用最著名的例子就是北斗衛星導航系統的商用化。北斗衛星導航系統由中國國家航天局於1994年開始研製，旨在結束中國對由美國空軍運營的全球定位系統（GPS）的依賴。自2011年起，北斗衛星導航系統開始用於快速增長的衛星導航商業領域。在中國境內，越來越多的公共汽車、輪船、智能手機和共享單車開始使用北斗衛星導航系統。截至2016年，北斗衛星導航系統在商業導航領域的市場份額達到了30%，市場價值高達2000億元人民幣。目前北斗衛星導航系統只覆蓋中國境內和幾個周邊國家，但中國計劃到2018年向“一帶一路”倡議沿線國家提供導航服務。一旦所有35台衛星全部投入使用，北斗衛星導航系統將覆蓋全球。到那時，中國境內的北斗衛星導航系統將超過全球定位系統，其市場份額將增長至60%。

未來十年，中國最大的科技提供者很可能是航空航天業。該行業已經成功完成了一些大型國家項目，如月球探測工程（又名嫦娥工程）和載人航天工程（又名神州飛船工程）。為了理解習近平如何高度重視這些工程及負責工程的官員們，我們只需看一下這些技術官僚的仕途發展軌跡就明白了。黑龍江省省委書記、中國人民解放軍中央軍委裝備發展部部長以及廣東省省長（分別為張慶偉、李尚福和馬興瑞）曾分別擔任無人繞月探測工程嫦娥一號、嫦娥二號和嫦娥三號的總指揮。浙江省省長（袁家軍）曾擔任神州載人飛船工程總指揮。中央軍民融合發展委員會辦公室常務副主任（金壯龍）曾擔任中國首個自主研發的大型噴氣式客機C919項目總指揮。這些官員還曾在國有機構中國航天科技集團公司和中國商用飛機有限責任公司擔任過要職。中國航天科技集團公司的著名產品包括神州飛船和長征火箭，而中國商用飛機有限責任公司則是中國大型噴氣式客機C919的研發者和製造商。

由航空航天專家轉型的技術官員在位時間比較短，還無法通過促進軍事科技與民用科技融合發展來證明自身能力。自2016年以來，很多地方政府——尤其是上海、湖南、四川和河北——已經出台計劃，推動軍事科技用於地方經濟發展。在這些省份中，湖南設定了最具雄心的增長目標：軍事科技用於民用產品帶來的年經濟增長率要達到15%。

航空航天專家的崛起也可以部分地解釋為中共內部權力鬥爭的結果。這些官員都在一定程度上與“派系政治”保持着距離，這令他們更傾向於效忠最高領導。當然，僅有忠心是不夠的，這些官員必須能夠勝任各自的職責。這些航空航天專家擁有技術知識和在大型企業的工作經歷，以及廣泛的行政管理經驗。與其他官員相比，這些技術官僚被認為是目標導向型，擁有不可或缺的解決問題能力，以及“作出必要但不受歡迎決策”的意願。習近平的計劃將在很大程度上令諸如中國航天科技集團或中國商用飛機有限責任公司這樣的大型國有企業受益。然而，這些任命也透露出習近平在他擔任中共中央總書記第二個任期內想要達成哪些目標。

本文原載於《中國政策研究所：分析》（China Policy Institute: Analysis）

In the run up to the 19th Party Congress, both academic studies and media coverage focused either on Xi Jinping or the power struggle between different factions of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The re-election of Xi Jinping as General Secretary of the CCP, however, will not lead to much fundamental policy change. In the past five years, numerous political programs have already been adopted, and in the second term he must launch and speed up the implementation of these programs. To understand the future direction of China, it is crucial to look at the officials he has already appointed to oversee his strategy for the next five years.

What is the overarching trend of Xi Jinping's appointments? Put simply, the technocrats are back and have taken over key positions in China's economic development strategy. But this time they no longer come from traditional industries such as the petroleum or mechanical engineering, but from high-tech industries or the so-called strategic new industries. These officials aim to create a new engine force for the coming decade by applying advanced military technology to civilian fields and integrating the military industry into local economic development. To achieve these goals, China has put a large amount of resources into the military industry and has accumulated highly advanced technology in order to catch up with the United States. Some experts believe that the military industry might even become the main source of China's future technological innovation and a leading force for economic growth.

The most well-known adoption of dual-use technologies is the commercialization of the BeiDou Satellite Navigation System, which was initiated in 1994 by the China National Space Administration (CNSA) and aimed to end the reliance on the US Global Positioning System (GPS) operated by the US Air Force. Since 2011 when BeiDou opened the door to the rapidly expanding commercial use of satellite navigation, more and more buses, ships, smartphones and bike sharers within China have been using the Beidou Navigation services. By 2016, its market share had reached 30% of the commercial navigation sector, which had a total volume of 200 billion RMB. Beidou only covers China and several neighboring countries, but China plans to provide navigation service to the countries along the 'Belt and Road' by 2018. Once all 35 satellites are in operation, the Beidou System will have worldwide coverage. Until then, the market share of Beidou Navigation System within China should exceed that of GPS and reach about 60% of market share.

The largest technology provider in the next ten years will likely be the aerospace industry. This industry has already carried out various national mega projects such as the Lunar Exploration Program (also known as Chang'e Program) and the Manned Space Program (Shenzhou Program). To understand how highly Xi values these projects and the officials responsible, one need only look at the career trajectories of the technocrats in charge. The party secretary of Heilongjiang, the head of PLA's general armament department, and the Governor of Guangdong (Zhang Qingwei, Li Shangfu, and Ma Xingrui respectively) were former chief commanders of Chang'e 1, Chang'e 2 and Chang'e 3, the unmanned lunar-orbiting spacecraft. The Governor of Zhejiang (Yuan Jiajun) was the chief commander for the Shenzhou Program. And the Acting Deputy Director of Bureau for Central Civil-Military Integration Commission (Guo Jinlong) was previously the chief commander of the C919 Project, the first passenger jetliner developed by Chinese engineers. The above named officials were also GeneralManagers of the state-owned concerns China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) and China Commercial Aircraft(COMAC). The well-known products of CASIC include the Shenzhou spacecraft and the Long March rocket, while COMAC is the developer and manufacturer of the C919.

Table indicating complete list of positions held by the above mentioned individuals:The aerospace experts are not long in power and still have to prove their competency by advancing the integration of military and civilian technological development. Since 2016 many local governments – particularly Shanghai, Hunan, Sichuan and Hebei – have worked out plans to improve the integration of dual-use technologies into the local economy. Of these provinces, Hunan has the most ambitious growth target – an annual 15% increase in the value of gross output in terms of adoption of dual-use technologies in civilian products.

The rise of the aerospace expert can be explained by the internal power struggles within the CCP. These officials have a certain 'detachment from factional politics', which makes them more likely to be loyal to the top leadership. But of course loyalty is not enough. The leading officials must also be competent. These aerospace experts have technological know-how, experience with large corporations and extensive administrative management. In comparison with other officials, the technocrats are considered to be goal-oriented, have essential problem-solving skills and also a willingness 'to make necessary but unpopular decisions'. Xi Jinping's plans will mostly benefit the large national corporations such as CASIC or COMAC. Still, these appointments give an indication of what Xi Jinping intends to do in his second term as General Secretary.