6月9日,五年一度的歐洲議會大選落幕，親歐洲、中右立場的歐洲人民黨黨團保住第一大黨團位置，但疑歐主義色彩濃厚的極右翼政黨選票增長勢頭迅猛，特別是在法國和德國這兩個歐盟核心國家分別成為選舉排名第一和第二的政黨。歐洲政治右傾化使包括法德在內的歐洲主要國家領導人陷入信任危機，也會減少中國與歐洲在共同應對氣候變化、維護經濟全球化和加強全球治理等領域的共同語言。

極右政黨崛起

歐洲政治右傾最主要的表現是極右政黨崛起，成為一支足以在歐洲政壇對主流政黨構成嚴重威脅的政治力量。目前，極右政黨已經在意大利、匈牙利、斯洛伐克和荷蘭作為最主要政黨領導聯合政府，芬蘭、克羅地亞和捷克的執政聯盟中也有極右政黨。此次歐洲議會選舉，中左和自由派政黨議席大幅減少，極右翼黨團席位卻有所增加，兩個極右黨團——歐洲保守派和改革主義者黨團、“身份與民主”黨團共贏下130個歐洲議員議席，比上一屆增加12席，如果再加上持相同意識形態但沒有參與任何黨團的德國選擇黨和奧爾班的匈牙利青年聯盟議員，極右翼在歐洲議會中的總議席很可能超過150席，成為僅次於中右色彩的人民黨黨團的第二大力量，其議席加總超過720個總議席的20%。

此外，法國、德國、比利時、奧地利、荷蘭等多個歐盟國家的極右翼政黨在本屆歐洲議會選舉中的得票率均領先於執政黨。在法國，勒龐領導的極右翼國民聯盟贏得31.5%的選票，而法國總統馬克龍的復興黨只有14.5%，未到國民聯盟的一半。在德國，極右翼的德國選擇黨（AfD）的得票率高達15.6%，僅次於中右的基督教民主聯盟的30.3%，但高於德國總理朔爾茨本人所在的社會民主黨（SPD）的14.1%。比利時極右翼的兩個弗拉芒黨成為得票率第一和第三政黨，兩黨都主張比利時北部說荷蘭語的弗拉芒地區獲得更大行政獨立性，對待移民要採取更嚴厲立場，同時對氣候變化政治持反對態度。

儘管主流政黨歐洲人民黨黨團、社民黨黨團和復興歐洲黨團仍在歐洲議會佔據多數席位（加總406席，超過半數所需的360席），極右政黨相互之間也不團結，但極右政黨已使移民、氣候變化成為歐洲政治的焦點議題，它們所強調的經濟增長疲軟和民眾生活成本問題也成為歐洲主流政治人物無法忽視的決策考量因素，歐洲政治向右轉的趨勢明顯。

歐洲領導力危機

此次歐洲議會選舉之後，極右政黨影響力開始從原來歐洲的邊緣和中小國家走入歐洲核心。法國總統馬克龍鑒於自己的復興黨在選舉中的糟糕表現，在國民聯盟威逼下於6月9日宣布解散國民議會，並將在6月底和7月初舉行兩輪選舉，選出新一屆國民議會、總理和內閣。中右翼政黨共和黨已同極右翼的國民聯盟結盟，而法國現代政治史上以前從未有傳統主流政黨與極右政黨結盟的先例。民調顯示，國民聯盟的支持率達到34%，而馬克龍陣營支持率只有19%，國民聯盟將在法國議會選舉中獲勝。如果事實符合民調預測，國民聯盟的候選人、年僅28歲的巴爾代拉將擔任法國新總理，同馬克龍形成“左右共治”格局，馬克龍在經濟社會領域的權力將被大大削弱。

德國朔爾茨領導的“紅綠燈”聯合政府（社民黨、自民黨、綠黨的執政聯盟）在歐洲議會選舉中的表現比馬克龍更差，社民黨得票率創下歷史最差成績，但朔爾茨拒絕解散政府提前舉行大選，表示德國與法國的政治體制不同，執政聯盟要堅持等到明年任期屆滿時再舉行聯邦議會選舉。英國7月4日即將舉行大選，據英國權威民調機構YouGov近期民調結果，執政黨保守黨已落後反對黨工黨19個百分點，支持率僅為18%，工黨的支持率高達37%。保守黨受歡迎程度甚至低於由脫歐黨改造而來的“改革英國”黨，該黨的支持率為19%。預計連續執政14年的保守黨將迎來“世紀慘敗”，蘇納克難逃下台命運。

歐盟委員會主席馮德萊恩的連任之路相對順暢，她是歐洲議會最大黨團——歐洲人民黨黨團推薦的“領銜候選人”，近期又成功使法國總統馬克龍和德國總理朔爾茨改變了對她的態度，再加上美國拜登政府原本對她就青睞有加，預計可在6月底的歐盟理事會峰會和7月中的歐洲議會信任票投票中過關。在米歇爾表示將卸任歐盟理事會主席職位後，葡萄牙前總理安東尼奧·科斯塔是該職位的有力候選人，愛沙尼亞總理卡婭·卡拉斯則可能接替博雷利，擔任歐盟外交與安全政策高級代表。

對中歐關係的可能影響

歐洲政治右傾、法德領導人陷入領導力危機和馮德萊恩連任歐盟委員會主席意味着歐盟未來政策取向的地緣政治化恐將愈演愈烈，其在貿易和投資領域的“防禦工具箱”還會進一步擴充，將中歐經濟相互依賴關係“武器化”和“泛政治化”“泛安全化”的行為會進一步增多，馮德萊恩提出的對華“去風險”操作也會延續一段時間，對此中國應有一定的心理準備。另外，在右翼勢力的壓力下，歐盟可能會調整其既定的應對全球氣候變化的目標承諾，增加對外轉嫁其減排責任的關稅和非關稅手段，這無疑也會削減中歐之間已經不多的全球共識和共同語言。

As a result of the resounding victories of right-wing parties, leadership crises in France and Germany and the potential re-election of Ursula von der Leyen as president of the European Commission, geopolitical factors are expected to feature prominently in the European Union's policy orientation. As its defense toolbox in trade and investment is enhanced, attempts to mix China-EU economic interdependence with political and security issues may increase.On June 9, voting to elect members of the European Parliament concluded. The pro-European, center-right European People's Party has retained its dominance, but far-right parties noted for their Euroscepticism have made significant gains. In France and Germany, two main players within the EU, far-right parties have emerged as the largest and second-largest political groups. This political shift to the right has plunged leaders of major EU countries into a trust crisis that threatens to undermine the consensus between Europe and China on major global issues, such as climate change, globalization and world peace.

Rise of the far right

In Europe, the shift to the right is most evident in the rise of far-right political parties, which now pose a serious threat to the dominance of mainstream parties. From Italy to Hungary, from Slovakia to the Netherlands, these parties have led coalition governments as the largest political force. They are also part of the coalition governments in Finland, Croatia and the Czech Republic. In the European Parliament election this year, center-right and liberal parties lost a significant number of seats; in contrast, far-right parties, led by the European Conservatives and Reformists Party (ECR) and Identity and Democracy Group (ID), won a total of 130 seats, up by 12 from the previous election. If the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Viktor Orban's Freedom Party (Hungary), which share the same far-right ideologies but are not affiliated with any parliamentary group, are taken into account, far-right parties would have more than 150 seats (20 percent of the 720 seats) — the second-largest voting bloc after the center-right EPP parliamentary group in the European Parliament.

In the European Parliament election, far-right parties won more seats than the ruling parties in many countries, including France, Germany, Belgium, Austria and the Netherlands. In France, Marine Le Pen's National Rally won 31.5 percent of the vote, while Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance (14.5 percent) was less than half of that. In Germany, the AfD won 15.6 percent of the votes, second only to the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (30.3 percent) and higher than Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party (14.1 percent). In Belgium, two far-right Flemish parties gained the most and third-most votes. Both advocate more administrative independence for the northern Dutch-speaking regions in the country and harsher immigration policies. They stand against climate change policies.

Although mainstream parties such as the EPP, SPD and Renew Europe still hold the majority, far-right parties have managed to bring immigration and climate change to the forefront of European politics, despite their lack of unity. Their constant emphasis on sluggish economic growth and the cost-of-living crisis makes it difficult for major European political leaders to ignore these issues in their decision-making. This shift toward the right is well underway across the political landscape of Europe.

European leadership crisis

Following the recent election, the influence of far-right parties has spread from small and peripheral countries to central regions in Europe. In light of his party's heavy defeat in elections for the European Parliament and under heavy pressure from the far-right National Rally, President Macron decided on June 9 to dissolve the National Assembly and launch two rounds of national elections starting from the end of June to early July to form a new National Assembly and elect a new prime minister.The center-right Republican Party has forged an alliance with the RN, setting a precedent in modern French political history in which a mainstream party allies with a far-right party. Current opinion polls show that with an approval rating of 34 percent, the RN could take the lead in the French parliamentary election. In contrast, Macron's party earned just 19 percent. If the poll prediction materialized, the 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, president of the RN, would serve as the new prime minister and form a coalition with Macron, which would significantly decrease the president's influence on economic and social issues.

In Germany, the “traffic light” coalition (SPD, Free Democratic Party and the Greens), led by Chancellor Scholz fared even worse than Macon's party in the European Parliament election, with SDP recording the worst vote share in its history. However, Scholz refused to dissolve the Bundestag and hold elections, stressing that the German and French political systems are different and that the ruling coalition will stay in power until its term ends.In the United Kingdom, the general election kicked off on June 4. According to the latest polling by YouGov, the ruling Conservative Party lags behind the opposition Labour Party by 19 points (18 percent vs. 37 percent). The Conservative Party (19 percent) was even worse off than Reform UK (previously Brexit Party). The Conservatives might be booted from power after 14 years running the government, and Rishi Sunak stepped down.

The re-election of von der Leyen as European Commission president seems relatively straightforward. She is the candidate of choice for the EPP, the largest political party group in the European Parliament. She convincingly transformed Macron's and Scholz's perception of her, won the favor of the Biden administration in the United States and was widely expected to win the vote of confidence in the European Council in late June and in the European Parliament in July.After President of the European Council Charles Michel announced his resignation, former Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa will take up the seat in December. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas will succeed Josep Borrell Fontelles as the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

Impacts on China-EU relations

As a result of the resounding victories of right-wing parties, leadership crises in France and Germany and the re-election of Ursula von der Leyen as president of the European Commission, geopolitical factors are expected to feature prominently in the European Union's policy orientation. As its defense toolbox in trade and investment is enhanced, attempts to mix China-EU economic ties with political and security issues may increase, and the de-risking initiative proposed by von der Leyen may continue in the long run. China should be fully prepared.Additionally, under the pressure of far-right parties, the European Union may adjust its stated climate goals and transfer its emissions reduction responsibility to other countries through tariffs and non-tariff measures. All these developments will undoubtedly undermine the already scarce China-EU consensus on global issues.