11月7日，全球矚目的兩岸領導人首次會面在新加坡舉行。在這次習馬會上，雙方都表達了對2016年可能當選執政的民進黨能否維持兩岸現狀的擔憂，並提出了預警。兩岸領導人為管控可能出現的陳水扁式危機，特意強調了“九二共識”的重要性。

習馬會上，熟悉兩岸政治運作方式的習近平，用兩岸中國人都熟悉的方式向至今對“九二共識”不表明態度的民進黨人喊話。習近平非常懇切地表示，這次習馬會就是為了不讓歷史的悲劇重演，不讓兩岸關係和平發展的成果得而復失。習近平在與馬英九交換意見時，表達了對民進黨務實開放的態度。他強調，希望台灣各黨派各團體能正視“九二共識”，無論哪個黨派和團體，不論其過去主張過什麼，只要承認“九二共識”的歷史事實，認同其核心意涵，我們都願意同其交往。習近平這一不帶任何偏見的表態，就是希望民進黨為了亞太地區尤其是台海地區的和平穩定認同“九二共識”。

其實，今年3月4日，習近平在看望參加全國政協會議的委員時就強調了“九二共識”在兩岸和平發展中不可替代的重要作用。他提出，如果“九二共識”的共同政治基礎遭到破壞，兩岸互信將不復存在，兩岸關係就要回到動蕩不安的老路上去。習近平提出這一警告的目的，是希望民進黨能夠正面回應“九二共識”，但是這一警告並沒有引起民進黨人的重視。習近平不希望兩岸關係和平發展中斷，不希望台海地區動蕩不安，才一再重申兩岸關係的這個關鍵詞。問題是，不認同或者迴避“九二共識”可能造成台海危機嗎？

 同樣熟悉兩岸政治運作、熟悉台灣政壇規則的馬英九也一再對民進黨不承認、迴避“九二共識”表示了強烈的憂慮、不安和警告。熟悉蔡英文性格並深知美國在亞太地區利益的馬英九，在習馬會前一再提醒蔡英文不要妄圖通過迴避“九二共識”而收穫兩岸關係和平發展的成果。蔡英文不僅不聽，而且姑息民進黨籍台南市長賴清德公開鼓吹“台獨”觀點，挑釁大陸。很清楚，蔡英文一直否認“九二共識”的存在，並保留了未來進一步挑戰兩岸底限的彈性空間。2000年當選執政的陳水扁曾經一度鬆口承認“九二共識”，但立即被時任陸委會主委的蔡英文否定。這也是後來陳水扁鋌而走險，導致兩岸關係危機、嚴重危及台海地區安全的最初始原因。

蔡英文否認“九二共識”的立場從來沒有改變過。儘管現在蔡英文說維持現狀，但對於“九二共識”這個議題，一直迴避回答。馬英九深知，維持和加強台海穩定符合包括美國在內的世界上諸多國家和地區的利益，要實現這一目標，最核心的問題就是承認“九二共識”而非否認或迴避“九二共識”。因此，今年4月份視察陸委會時，他對“九二共識”作了系統的闡述。但是，馬英九的這一積極行為依然被民進黨以種種方式否定。民進黨候選人蔡英文及民進黨團隊基本上對馬英九視而不見，認為他不過是個“看守總統”，要讓他在任期最後階段一事無成。馬英九在窮盡各種警告方式之後，仍然無法阻止民進黨暗中搞“台獨”,製造“兩個中國”或者“一中一台”的行為，也無法在“總統”任上更好地行使與兩岸問題有關的職權。為了穩定和促進兩岸和平及地區穩定，馬英九與習近平會面，並重點強調了“九二共識”。這種情況下的保證與再保證，是為了提醒台灣選民，一個不支持“九二共識”或者其他形式的“一個中國”的台北政府，將會遭遇兩岸關係的各種挫折，甚至和平發展的中斷。

習馬會後，蔡英文一方面提出自己當選後也想與大陸領導人進行“習蔡會”，儘管她明確知道大陸領導人不可能跟堅持“台獨”觀點的台灣方面領導人會面；另一方面，積極煽動選民讓所謂不能捍衛台灣的國民黨下台。蔡英文的這些表態顯示了她純熟的選舉技巧。不過，馬英九在習馬會上的表態非常謹慎，他通過重申“九二共識”表達了對民進黨一旦上台執政可能造成危機的深深憂慮。習馬會過程中，馬英九一直在重複既有的觀點。會後，民進黨指責馬英九賣台。但事實上，儘管民進黨有表達意見的權利，但從習馬會中馬英九的表現看，並沒有傷害台灣人民尊嚴的任何言行出現。民進黨的這種指責，確實是在變相地煽動台灣民眾，力圖在選舉中獲得“總統”職位和多數立法席位。早在2000年和2004年，民進黨就遺憾沒能在獲得“總統”職位的同時，獲取絕大多數的立法席位。因為一旦兩個選舉都獲勝，他們就可以全面執政，就可以走“法理台獨”之路，實現“台灣獨立”。國民黨主席朱立倫對民進黨過分指責國民黨的行為表示憤怒。他說，民進黨的特色就是，它做的就是對的，別人做的就是錯的。朱立倫同時表示，習馬會對兩岸是有正面幫助的，請民進黨不要逢中必反。

習馬會對“九二共識”維持台海和平與穩定的作用有充分的共識：“九二共識”是兩岸關係和平發展的一部分，維持現狀就要承認“九二共識”。這為未來的兩岸關係明確了方向。這表明，現任兩岸領導人在維持現狀的定義上具有高度的一致性。下一屆台灣當局領導人只要認同“九二共識”，台海地區的和平穩定就將繼續；不認同“九二共識”，就是公開挑釁兩岸關係，就必然迫使大陸採取回擊行動。勿謂言之不預也！

On Nov 7, President Xi Jinping and Taiwan leader Ma Ying-jeou met for the first time in Singapore, amid worldwide attention. During the meeting, both sides expressed concern about the prospect that the cross-Strait status quo may be interrupted should the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) get elected to office in the upcoming 2016 election in Taiwan. With this in mind, the two leaders emphasized the importance of the 1992 Consensus with a view to forestall any new disruption in cross-Strait ties like that caused by the former DPP leader Chen Sui-bien.

 President Xi said the meeting was essential to prevent that historical tragedy from repeating itself, and to prevent the fruits from peaceful development of cross-Strait ties from being lost again. This is a direct and sincere appeal, in a sense, to the DPP, which has been ambiguous about its stance on the 1992 Consensus. Furthermore, Xi adopted an open and pragmatic approach to the DPP. During the meeting with Ma, Xi emphasized his hope that all political parties and social organizations would accept and adhere to the 1992 Consensus. No matter what their past political propositions may be, as long as they recognize the historical facts of the 1992 Consensus, uphold its core content, China is ready to engage with them. Through this open-handed outreach, the Chinese president is appealing to the DPP to uphold the 1992 Consensus in the interest of peace and stability of the region, in particular across the Strait.

Back in March, Xi stressed the indispensable role of the 1992 Consensus in cross-Strait peace and development during a meeting with CPPCC members. He pointed out that, if the common political foundation enshrined in the 1992 Consensus should be eroded, the mutual trust across the Strait will evaporate, and cross-Strait relations will be drawn back to the old path of turbulence. The warning was meant to appeal to the DPP, but the message has so far gone unheeded by the DPP. Xi reiterated the message because no one wants to see disruption in cross-Strait relations, or turbulence in the region. Some may dare to ask: If the DPP dismisses or goes against the 1992 Consensus, will tensions flare up across the Strait?

Ma Ying-jeou is well versed in the political intricacies of Taiwan, and is familiar with the temperament of DPP leader Tsai Ing-wen, not to mention the US' high stakes in the Asia Pacific region. He has expressed unequivocally the concerns of bypassing or even denying the 1992 Consensus, and cautioned Ms Tsai against the illusion of maintaining peace and development in cross-Strait relations while bypassing the 1992 Consensus. His word of caution fell on deaf ears. On the contrary, she gave tacit support to Lai Ching-te, DPP member and mayor of Tainan, who has been advocating “Taiwan independence” in an unveiled challenge to Beijing. Tsai, by denying the existence of the 1992 Consensus, is apparently setting the stage for challenging the ultimate bottom line of cross-Strait relations, at least as a future option. Back in 2000, Chen Sui-bien loosened up on his stance and recognized the 1992 Consensus, which was met with strong opposition from Tsai, then the chair of the Mainland Affairs Council. Later, Chen hardened his stance on cross-Strait relations, which severely imperiled cross-Strait relations and undermined the peace and stability of the region.

In spite of her claimed desire to preserve the status quo, Tsai has been circumventing the 1992 Consensus, and her stance on denying that understanding remains unchanged, while Ma is conscious that preserving the status quo serves the interests of the US and other countries in the region. Ma made the case for this position during his visit to the Mainland Affairs Council in April this year, yet to no avail, as the DPP led by Tsai practically has written off Ma as a “caretaker president”, and is determined to make Ma a lame duck during his remaining term. Ma cannot stop the DPP from pushing for “Taiwan independence” under the table, or creating “two Chinas” or “One China, One Taiwan”, nor can Ma enforce his propositions for cross-Strait relations during his tenure. In order to promote the peace and stability of the region, Ma reiterated the 1992 Consensus during the meeting with President Xi. Ma's repeated assurance of adhering to the 1992 Consensus is meant as a reminder to the people in Taiwan that an administration turning its back on the agreement or pushing for Taiwan independence will rock the boat and even derail the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations.

After the Xi-Ma meeting, Tsai claimed that she would be willing to meet with the mainland leader, but she knows very well that mainland leaders will never meet with pro-independence officials from Taiwan. In the meanwhile, she is leading the campaign against the Kuomingtang (KMT) on the grounds that the party is unable to defend Taiwan. Admittedly, Tsai is a seasoned politician and an adept campaigner.To his credit, Ma conducted himself with propriety at the Xi meeting, and his reaffirmation of the 1992 Consensus indicates his deep concerns about the prospects of DPP leadership it the party wins in 2016. The DPP then accused Ma of “selling out” Taiwan, which is untenable as Ma didn't say or do anything that may compromise the dignity of the people of Taiwan. The misguided accusation is a veiled attempt to manipulate public opinion against the KMT so as to gain ground in the “parliamentary and presidential elections”. Back in 2000 and 2004, to its regret, the DPP failed to win a parliamentary majority though they carried the day at the “presidential election”. If the DPP has won both, its leaders would have embarked on “de jure independence”, which they see as eventually leading to full independence of Taiwan. Eric Chu, the chairman of the KMT, scorned the DPP's indiscriminate allegations against the KMT as a “DPP is always right, others are always wrong” philosophy. Chu also said that the Xi-Ma meeting is a positive development, and appealed to the DPP to reconsider its “anything but P.R.C.” policy.

In sum, the Xi-Ma meeting reaffirmed the fundamentally important role of the 1992 Consensus in maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, including that it underpins the status quo of peace and development. It provides guidance to the future development of cross-Strait relations. Also, it indicates a high level of consensus between the incumbent leaders of both sides of the Strait. As long as the next leadership of Taiwan upholds the 1992 Consensus, the peace and stability in the area will be maintained. Any attempt to the contrary constitutes a blatant challenge to cross-Strait relations, and it will definitely be met with counteractions from the mainland.