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| Voters react to election results in Paris on 7 July. (Photo: Christophe Ena/AP) |
Results of the latest British general election and French legislative election came out in early July, revealing a sharp contrast between the two major European countries' political environments.In terms of comparative partisan strengths, the center-left won an absolute majority in Britain, while the far-right showed increasing influence in France. In terms of government functioning, the British prime minister and cabinet got in place swiftly, while the governing team has yet to emerge in France. In terms of foreign policy, Britain has displayed a clear and stable orientation, while France shows uncertainty.As a result, Britain, which is now officially outside the European Union but more concerned about it, has gained greater visibility and impact in China-EU relations, while the French capacity for action has encountered limitations owing to troubles with its parliament. Some adjustments are unavoidable for China-EU ties in such areas as security, trade, global issues and values.
Security takes prominence
The Ukraine crisis will profoundly affect China-EU relations. Britain and France are highly aligned on the idea that the Ukraine crisis has undermined Europe's security architecture. They wish China would play a positive role in finding a fair and lasting solution and stop providing Russia with military-civilian dual-use goods. Britain prioritizes security in its diplomacy, believes guaranteeing European security is the most important and has even expanded the concept of security into economic realms, advocating for “securonomics” to enhance offshore supply chain resilience.Meanwhile, the new prime minister, Keir Starmer, claims to have worked to change Labour's doubts about NATO since he took the party's helm and is happy to see NATO membership expand and show strength against Russia. In France, continuing to support Ukraine has become a consensus in political circles: President Macron put forward the idea of sending troops to help Ukraine in February, turning to a tough stance on aid for Ukraine. The left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire, which won the most votes in legislative elections, will do its best to preserve Ukraine's sovereignty, as well as provide weapons. Marine Le Pen, head of the far-right Rassemblement National, who had been criticized for being close to Russia, also pledged her party would sustain the current policy of assisting Ukraine once she assumes the office of prime minister.
Mixed news for trade
The negative impacts of protectionist practices and trade countermeasures brook no neglect. Both the British and French economies are recovering. According to IMF estimates, Britain'g growth in 2024 is expected to be 0.7 percent, and France's is expected to be 0.8 percent, but both are under pressure. Britain needs to shift from a soft-landing to strong growth, and the French deficit for fiscal 2023 reached 5.5 percent of GDP.Considering China is the third-largest trading partner of Britain and France in Europe and the EU, as well as their largest in Asia, they are normally supposed to maintain pragmatic engagement with China and continuously tap new potentials for cooperation. Because of the impacts of increasing trade deficits with China and the EU's “de-risking” policy, the competitive aspects of the two countries' China policies are on the rise.In Britain, the new foreign minister is expected to maintain “deliberate strategic ambiguity,” getting rid of overdependence on China in trade, technologies and critical raw materials. In France, after France pushed for an EU anti-subsidy investigation against Chinese electric vehicles, the Chinese side launched anti-dumping probes targeting EU brandy and pork products. Ttade frictions between the two countries as well as between China and the EU have increased. No matter what cabinet is organized in France, this will be difficult to reverse in the short term.
Cooperation and values
Neither Britain nor France can get around China as a partner. Britain can be expected to return to the global stage via “progressive realism,” aiming to help the world accomplish goals of fairness by means of realistic approaches, assuming leadership in such areas as climate change and world economic development. The Labour Party plans to build a clean power alliance and is even preparing to fill the climate leadership vacuum if Donald Trump is re-elected in the United States. France has always considered China to be a partner that it cannot get around on global issues. Given that the left-wing alliance has won quantitative advantage in legislative elections, its policy proposals on domestic energy efficiency, pollution reduction, biodiversity conservation and climate refugee accommodation will naturally extend to the realms of international cooperation. So there is plenty to do for China and France.Considering that the British Labour Party is center-left and that the center-left alliance is gaining traction in French decision-making, the China policies of both may raise the visibility of human rights and values issues, bringing those cliche topics back into limelight.
Suggestions
Here are some suggestions for improving China-Europe relations:As China and Europe are important forces for preserving world peace and prosperity — as well as indispensable front-runners and leaders in resolving global issues — trying to broaden cooperative aspects and control competitive ones will not only benefit both sides but will also contribute to other actors in the world.At present, the China policies of both Britain and France follow a generally similar path: Britain emphasizes “compete, challenge and cooperate,” while France and the EU identify China as “systemic rival, economic competitor and cooperation partner.” Both reflect Europe's emphasis on the competitive aspects of relations with China.
Thus, while we can understand Europe's concerns, we also need to remind Europe that one-sided emphasis on competition is not conducive to the healthy development of China-Europe relations.We expect to strengthen cooperation with the European side on global issues, as well as in areas related to economic development. In particular, we anticipate that Britain — being reconnected outside of the EU but leading Europe again — will work actively to expand common interests with China.
In such fields as security and values, China and Europe should increase consultations to find consensus at operational levels. This will increase mutual understanding and reduce misgivings and demonization through international meetings and people-to-people exchanges. In this way, it will not only contribute to world peace but also promote mutual learning between civilizations.
