中日韓外長會議近日在東京舉行。作為“三方外長會談”自然有其自身的任務和使命，而由此形成的契機則在相當程度上為重新構建三國關係提供了條件。

8月24日，中日韓三國外長會議在東京舉行。（選自：觀察者網）

事實上，三方外長在東京會談，不僅給韓日、中日外長會談創造了機會，也給自民黨幹事長二階俊博與中國外長王毅直接會面提供了順理成章的機緣。

眾所周知，二階俊博既是日本自民黨的黨務領袖人物，精通國事選舉和國會對策，曾輔佐小泉奪取“郵政大選”勝利，也支持安倍贏得近期的參院選舉，過了“修憲門檻”。同時更因為其曾擔任三屆經產大臣，諳熟東亞地區合作的各種博弈關係，曾公開主張在地區整合上日本要從後台走上前台，不再容忍“東盟當頭”，直接掌握“東亞共同體的主導權”。在日本政界，二階俊博是毫不掩飾的“親華派”，曾在2007年專程與時任駐日大使的王毅商談重建“日中友好議員聯盟”事宜，在涉華事務上表現出積極、友好態度。尤其是，在擔任對華推銷新幹線項目牽頭人期間，他在與時任中國國家發改委主任曾培炎會談時，坦誠地說日本的新幹線技術不過是在學習中國的過程中積累的一個閃光點而已，為支持中國經濟發展，日本願意“拿出一條給中國先用着”，並提供技術支持。這樣的表態，可以說為中日高鐵項目合作創造了友好的氛圍。而前不久，面對日本官方和媒體炒作釣魚島附近海域中國漁船驟增問題時，二階俊博作為新任幹事長與駐日大使程永華會面，表達了與外務省不同的富有彈性的看法。這也為今天的中日關係走向緩和提供了不可多得的條件。

在日本政界，二階俊博是毫不掩飾的“親華派”。（二階俊博資料圖）

在安倍政權中，二階俊博接替谷垣禎一出任自民黨幹事長，反映了安倍對其政策和威望的仰仗。他的東亞地區合作與整合政策，獨特的對華政策思路與管道作用，都堪稱安倍面對世界經濟和日本經濟低迷沉浮一籌莫展時的希望之光。

安倍是急於見到中國領導人的。一方面，他的“地球儀外交”和內政選舉都取得了積極成果，需要在中國問題上畫一個圓滿句號。另一方面，在經濟上，“安倍經濟學”可謂山窮水盡，投資不增，消費停滯，出口負增長，金融抑制型日元貶值政策到了極限。而此前，安倍曾依賴的美國經濟增速下滑，且面臨加息的不確定性風險，日本對美擴張出口困難。尤其是，日美經濟矛盾開始升溫。年初以來，日美財長多次隔空吵嘴，日元美元匯率政策擦出火花。在歐洲方面，英國脫歐導致歐盟市場分裂，日本出口風險陡增。在亞洲，亞洲各國經濟增速普遍停滯，出口佔比接近60%的區內貿易缺少亮點。在這種情況下，中國市場再成日本經濟走出谷底的唯一出路。

問題是，在歷史、領土、海上安全、地區威脅認識以及地緣政治等問題上，安倍政權持續與中國作梗，使中日關係凸顯一個“冷”字。雖然中日首腦已三次見面，但安倍並不珍惜，總是抱着“一事一辦”的態度，凡事以己為中心，在經濟與安全兩條線上使中日關係懸在不確定之中。而今，安倍再次希望借G20峰會之際實現首腦會談，是真實推進中日關係緩和，還是重演“一事一辦”，這需要安倍認真對待。

9月5日，出席二十國集團領導人杭州峰會的日本首相安倍晉三在杭州舉行新聞發佈會。（選自：新華網）

這一次不再那麼簡單，多種地緣政治風險迫在眉睫，經濟增長的不確定性也令日本經濟充滿風險。安倍要腳踏實地，認真環顧四海，審視周邊，正確判斷形勢，嚴肅認真地與中國展開經濟、安全兩條線上的合作。如此，中日關係才能發揮有利於地區和平、穩定、發展的關鍵作用。

特別是，面對美國大選，作為安倍政權最大戰略亮點的TPP直面夭折風險。而這並不是日本單方面努力就可以成功的。只要美國不認賬，不能通過議會審議，那麼TPP生效需要贊成國GDP佔比達70%的條件就不能成立。如此就意味着其他所有國家的努力都是徒勞。安倍政權曾經為了追求TPP失去凝聚東亞、主導東亞共同體的機遇，如今能否重新回歸中日韓合作道路，重構東亞共同體核心圈，堪稱擺在日本面前的全球戰略挑戰。

從這個意義上看，安倍不僅須認真對待首腦會談，更要認真對待中日韓首腦會議，腳踏實地推進自主經營的地區合作機制，為東亞、為日本經濟發展創造機會。

Not long ago, China, Japan and the ROK finally got their foreign ministers together in Tokyo. The foreign ministers' meeting naturally had an important mission, and the opportunity it created may, to a considerable extent, reshape the relations among the three countries.

August 24,China, Japan and the ROK finally got their foreign ministers together in Tokyo.

The Tokyo event not only allowed the three foreign ministers to meet but also offered a convenient chance for Director-General Toshihiro Nikai of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party to meet face to face with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

It is well-known that Nikai has been an LDP leader, a big-time expert in the nation's business including political elections and parliamentary proceedings. He helped Junichiro Koizumi win his “postal elections” and Shinzo Abe cross the “constitutional threshold” in the recent Senate elections. Owing to his long-standing service as a cabinet minister, he is well-versed in the complex issues of regional cooperation in East Asia. As a strong advocate for Japan's dominance in the East Asian community and regional integration, he openly called Japan to move itself from backstage to the front and stop leaving “ASEAN in the driver's seat”. In domestic politics, Nikai made no attempt to hide his pro-China stance. It was he that worked with the then Chinese ambassador in Japan, Wang Yi, to re-establish the Japan-China league of friendly parliamentarians, and his general performance on China-related issues has been positive and friendly. In particular, when serving as Japan's chief representative to promote Shinkansen in China, he told then Chinese Minister of Development and Reform Zeng Peiyan that the Japanese bullet train's technology was nothing but a little bright spot in Japan's overall learning from China and that he would be more than happy to let China have a high-speed rail line first, complete with technology backup. It was such a supportive attitude that laid the groundwork for amicable China-Japan cooperation in the high-speed rail area. Not long ago, in the face of a joint official statement and media hype in Japan concerning a surge of Chinese fishing boats in Diaoyudao area, Nikai, in his new capacity as LDP director-general, met with Chinese Ambassador Cheng Yonghua and the views he expressed were flexible, unlike those by Japan's Foreign Ministry. This has provided a valuable atmosphere for more relaxed bilateral relations.

In domestic politics, Nikai made no attempt to hide his pro-China stance.

Nikai's recent replacement of Tanigaki Junchi as LDP director-general reflects Mr. Abe's respect for his policy and prestige. In particular, his thoughts on East Asia cooperation and integration, his unique approach to China and his personal connections present some hopes for a stranded Mr. Abe confronting a sluggish global and domestic economy.

Mr. Abe is eager to meet Chinese leaders. On the one hand, he has basically succeeded in his “overlooking the globe” diplomacy and a series of domestic elections, and he needs to succeed also in his dealings with China. On the other hand, Mr. Abe is at the end of his “Abenomics” rope, with flattening investment, stagnant consumption, negative export growth and the yen's devaluation policy going nowhere. The US economy, now suffering a growth slowdown and facing the uncertain prospect of an interest-rate boost, has made increasing Japan exports to the US highly difficult. On top of that, the two countries seem to have been locked in heated economic bickering. Their finance ministers have exchanged harsh words quite a few times since the beginning of the year while clashing over differences of currency-exchange rate policies. In Europe, the Brexit controversy threatens a fragmented EU market, making it risky for Japan to increase exports there. In Asia, with growth in most countries grinding to a halt, Japan's exports within Asia– nearly 60% of its total regional trade – looks gloomy. Against such a backdrop, the China market stands out as the only way out for the sluggish Japanese economy.

Now, the problem seems quite clear. It is the Abe administration's sustained confrontational approach to China across the whole range of issues of history, territory, maritime security, regional security perception, geopolitics and others, sending China-Japan relations in a deep freeze.Though top leaders of the two countries have met three times already, Mr. Abe shows little enthusiasm. He seems to follow an issue-specific approach, always asking the other side to accept his agenda while leaving the important issues of economic and security cooperation dangling in uncertainty. With the G20 Hangzhou Summit just around the corner, Mr. Abe once again expresses hopes for meetings with Chinese leaders. Does he genuinely want to ease bilateral relations or does he just want to play his favorable “issue-specific” tricks again? This is something Mr. Abe must think through carefully.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe attends a news conference on 5th Sep. in Hangzhou after the Hangzhou G20 summit.

Why? Things are not so simple this time. In addition to a large number of geopolitical imperatives, Japan's own economic future is at stake given serious widespread uncertainty about growth. Mr. Abe should take a sober look at the world as well as Japan's own neighborhood, make a sound judgment of the situation and act in a down-to-earth manner to seriously engage China for economic and security cooperation. Only in such way can Japan's relations with China play a decisive role of contributing to peace, stability and development of the region.

What is more, the coming US elections threaten to derail Mr. Abe's most strategic asset, TPP. Japan's efforts alone are not sufficient to save the project. If the US side cannot get it passed by Congress, then TPP will not fly, for it would fail to meet the required 70% of GDP of all consenting parties. This means that the other TPP members have just worked in vain. The Abe administration has wasted an opportunity of integrating East Asia and dominating the East Asia community by going all out for TPP. Now, Japan's global strategy faces a choice: Will it come back to the path of China-Japan-ROK cooperation and rebuild the core for the East Asia community?

In this sense, not only must Mr. Abe take his talks with Chinese leaders seriously, he must also treat the China-Japan-ROK leaders' meeting seriously, by solidly contributing to Asia-based mechanisms of regional cooperation and creating more opportunities for economic development in East Asia and Japan itself.