展望新的一年，世界充滿變數和挑戰。

首先，還是“笨蛋！問題是經濟”這個老問題。2016年世界經濟將繼續緩慢增長，金融風險不斷聚積。世界經濟仍處在“L”型的底部，根據共識預測（Consensus Forecasts）,2016年全球經濟增長速度為2.8%，略高於2015年的2.6%。除了美國和英國，發達國家2016年會是一片凄涼，GDP增速全都低於2%。

今年全球經濟景觀中有幾個關鍵點要留意：

1、隨着美聯儲加息和美元走強，一些債務纏身的發展中國家正經受足可以毀掉其經濟的資本外逃、信貸緊縮和財政緊縮。歐元區和一些資源出口國的債務危機似乎也迫在眉睫。系統性金融風險和傳染依然存在。2009年以來，各大央行創造了高達12萬億美元的廉價美元流動性，其結果是全球債務自2007年以來額外增加了57萬億美元。國際清算銀行稱這一債務水平“令人恐懼”。

2、大宗商品特別是石油的價格持續下跌，由於增長乏力全球需求依然低迷。這將給巴西、俄羅斯、南非、印度尼西亞、澳大利亞和加拿大等資源出口國帶來不利影響。巴西和俄羅斯2015年已經出現3.5%到3.8%的負增長，這種趨勢估計仍將繼續。

3、由於經濟變數增加，全球投資與貿易將再度萎縮，從而進一步打擊已經萎靡不振的世界市場。世界貿易過去幾年的年平均增幅為3%，而2008年金融危機之前為7%。未來的變數包括潛在的美聯儲加息、歐元區需求疲軟和高失業率，以及可能從債務纏身國家擴散到全球的系統性金融風險。

第二，中東等地的地緣政治動蕩依然存在，牽扯進來的大國競爭不斷加劇，這不僅使地區衝擊惡化，也沉重打擊了全球經濟增長。隨着美國大選來臨，選舉年熱將使地區衝突變得更複雜、更加難以解決。

我們來看看全球的問題地區：

烏克蘭危機持續惡化，軍事衝突沒有停止的跡象，導致俄羅斯與美國陷入戰略僵局，而這將影響未來歐洲的安全，以及俄羅斯同歐盟和美國的關係。烏克蘭、俄羅斯、美國與歐盟四方之間的衝突將在未來一段時間內繼續上演。

中東複雜而危險的局勢仍然看不到“隧道盡頭的光”。近期沙特與伊朗外交關係破裂，巴林和蘇丹跟隨沙特同伊朗斷交，該地區及其他地方遜尼派與什葉派穆斯林的衝突與“代理人戰爭”會愈演愈烈。近年美國的戰略收縮包括撤出中東專註於亞太，更多致力於實現“亞洲的再平衡”。

不過，被美國政府作為重大外交政策成就而大力吹捧的伊朗核協議，似乎成為沙特和伊朗所代表的遜尼派與什葉派穆斯林之間關係惡化的催化劑。在以色列、沙特等美國中東盟友看來，美國對它們的承諾變得不太可靠。在這種情況下，直接軍事對抗看來無法排除。

中東地區衝突的另一個方面是“伊斯蘭國”（IS）的擴張及其在全球的恐怖活動。儘管IS最近在伊拉克損失了小部分領地，但它肯定不會撤退，即使許多專家預測今年IS會滅亡，但沒有人說出怎樣才能打敗它。

隨着美國採取更積極的行動，在全球踐行它所謂的神聖不可侵犯的航行自由規則，南海與西太平洋的緊張局勢將加劇，接下來的一年裡有可能出現軍事衝突。最近美國對中國主權島嶼領空的“誤入”，就是典型的美國冒險主義。在美國的支持下，日本艦船與戰機在南海巡邏正在醞釀當中。而菲律賓似乎不管總統選舉結果如何，都決心將賭注押在即將到來的國際海洋法法庭裁決上。

地緣政治動蕩正變得日益嚴峻而複雜，這勢必對全球經濟環境產生負面影響。

第三，隨着大國的參與力度加大，全球治理和規則制定今年進入實質性階段，進而繼續塑造21世紀世界政治經濟秩序。

2015年見證了全球治理的重大演進，通過採取積極行動推動結構性改革，作為整體的發展中國家特別是中國取得了進展。

僅舉幾個例子。

中國的聯合國會費分攤份額上升到近8%，維和行動出資超過10%，分別居第三和第二位。

亞投行於2015年底全面運營。這個全球金融體系的新成員既代表中國對全球治理的貢獻，也說明中國決心為需要基建融資的發展中國家提供一個替代選擇。許多發達國家和發展中國家對亞投行的超額認購說明，現有全球金融治理結構絕對已經是超負荷，需要補充和加強。它同時告訴我們，全球治理亟需像中國提出的“一帶一路倡議”這樣的新思想。

2015年末，中國人民幣被正式納入IMF的SDR貨幣籃子，並將於2016年10月1日生效。這再次表明全球貨幣體系正在向著更加健全高效的方向改革。IMF和世界銀行有關增加發展中國家投票權份額的決定長期未獲執行，去年年末也終於得到解決，這給世界帶來了希望，說明全球治理改革實際上是所有國家的共同期盼。

上述所有進展象徵性地顯示出“西方治理”正在向“東西方共同治理”轉變。由於中國將於9月份主辦杭州G20峰會，全球治理的這個大趨勢無疑將在2016年繼續延續。中國有望就世界經濟應如何重組提供新思路，以便為經濟增長帶來新的動力。

第四，今年大國合作與摩擦都會增加，這種有趣的互動發展反映着大國關係的重塑。為了讓世界對所有人來說都變得更加美好，大國至少應在三個領域內密切合作。

毋庸置疑，G20必須更好地進行宏觀經濟協調。全球經濟在過時的增長模式下失去動力，一直在苦苦尋找經濟發展的新路徑。在這個過渡時期，幾乎所有國家都在進行結構調整。然而沒有密切合作與政策協調，世界經濟仍會步履蹣跚並再次跌倒。G20擁有全球80%以上的GDP，已經取代G7成為全球經濟合作的主要平台，其成員作為全球經濟的主要利益攸關方有負責讓經濟再度增長。避免一國經濟政策產生負面溢出效應的必要性顯而易見，美聯儲加息時機就是一個例子。

另一個要務是大國通過密切合作與協商，減少各個熱點地區的緊張，打擊恐怖主義，尤其是在中東地區。必須加強聯合國的作用，對聯合國實現和平與維護和平的努力要給予更大的支持。

中國率先提出在合作與協商基礎上建設“新型大國關係”。在這方面，美中作為安理會常任理事國和G20核心成員，應在沿着上述路線塑造國家關係方面發揮領導作用。

羅列需要解決的問題和困難是容易的，匯聚我們的智慧與決心，為這些問題提供可行的解決方案則完全是另一回事，而這正是新年伊始應該做的事情。

As we look ahead into the year ahead, the world seems full of uncertainties and challenges.

Firstly, “it's the economy, stupid” as usual. The year 2016 will witness continued global slow growth and accumulation of financial risks. The world economy is still on the bottom of an L-shaped groove. According to Consensus Forecasts, global growth is expected to be 2.8%, slightly up from 2.6% in 2015. Aside from the US and UK, advanced nations face a bleak picture with GDP growth all below 2% in 2016.

There are a few key things to watch closely in global economic landscape this year:

1. With the Fed's rate increases and a strong dollar, some debt-ridden developing nations are experiencing capital flight, credit crunches and fiscal tightening that can break their economies. A debt crisis also seems imminent in Euro-zone and some resource-exporting countries. Systemic financial risks and contagion still exist. Since 2009, major central banks have created cheap dollar liquidity in the amount of $12 trillion, and as a result global debt has risen an additional $57 trillion since 2007. The Bank of International Settlement calls this level of debt “frightening”.

2. Prices of bulk commodities will keep falling, especially that of petroleum, as global demands remain depressed with weak growth. This will adversely impact resource-exporting countries like Brazil, Russia, South Africa, Indonesia, Australia and Canada. Brazil and Russia were already in negative growth of -3.5% and -3.8% in 2015, and the trend is expected to continue.

3. Global investment and trade will shrink again as economic uncertainty mounts, which will further dampen an already depressed world market. World trade is growing at an average of 3% in the last few years as compared with 7% before the 2008 financial crisis. The uncertainty that lies in wait includes any potential Fed rate increase, the Euro-zone's weak demand and high unemployment, and possible systemic financial risks spreading from debt-ridden countries to the whole world.

Secondly, geopolitical turmoil persists in regions like the Middle East involving ever-deepening rivalry among big powers, which will not only worsen regional conflicts but also deal heavy blows to global economic growth. With the US presidential election in sight, election-year fever will make any regional conflict much more complex and difficult to resolve.

Let us take a panoramic view of trouble spots worldwide:

1. The Ukraine crisis continues to fester with no sign of an end to the military conflict, producing a strategic stalemate between Russia and the US that affects the future security of Europe as well as Russia's relationships with the European Union and the US. The four-prong conflict among Ukraine, Russia, the US and EU will be with us for some time to come.

2. There is no “light at the end of the tunnel” for the complex and dangerous situation in the Middle East. With the recent severance of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, with Bahrain and Sudan following the Saudi lead, the conflict and “proxy wars” between Sunni and Shiite Muslims in the region and beyond will get even worse. The recent years' US strategic retrenchment cycle involves a retreat from the Middle East and a refocus on Asia with more determined efforts to implement “rebalance in Asia”.

But the Iranian Nuclear Agreement touted by the US Administration as a major foreign policy score seems to be a catalyst for worsening relations between Sunnis and Shiite as represented respectively by Saudi Arabia and Iran. US allies in the region including Israel and Saudi Arabia are less sure of America's commitment to them. It seems that direct military confrontation can't be ruled out in this situation.

Another aspect of the regional conflict is the spread of IS and its terror campaign all over the world. Though IS suffered a few losses of land in Iraq recently, it is certainly not in retreat and there is no telling how it can be defeated even if many experts are predicting its demise this year.

3. The South China Sea and the Western Pacific will witness rising tension and possible military skirmishes in the year ahead as the US moves more aggressively to enforce its sacrosanct rule of the freedom of navigation worldwide, as defined by itself. Recent “mistaken entry” into airspace over the island under Chinese sovereignty is a typical example of American adventurism. With American support, Japanese warships and fighter planes patrolling in the South China Sea is in the pipeline, and the Philippines seems determined to place its bet on the upcoming ruling of the Maritime International Court, no matter what the outcome is for its presidential election.

Geopolitical turmoil and upheavals are getting more acute and complex day by day and they are bound to affect global economic environment negatively.

Thirdly, global governance and rule-making enters a substantive period this year, with greater involvement by big powers, which will continue to shape the world political and economic order in the 21st century.

The year 2015 saw much evolution in global governance, with developing countries as a whole and China in particular gaining ground by proactive actions in improving its architectural reform.

Just take a few examples.

China moves up in the scale of assessments for the United Nations regular contributions at close to 8% and those for peace-keeping operations at over 10%, taking the 3rd and 2nd positions respectively.

The Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) was fully operational by the end of 2015. This new addition to the global financial system represents both China's contribution to global governance and her determination to provide an alternative to the developing nations that need financing for infrastructure-building. The over-subscription to AIIB by so many economies, both advanced and developing, indicates that the existing global financial governance structure is definitely over-burdened and needs supplements and reinforcement. It also tells us that global governance is in critical need of new ideas like “the Belt and Road Initiative” as proposed by China.

China's RMB was officially listed as part of the SDR basket of currencies by the IMF late 2015, effective October 1, 2016. This demonstrates once again that the global monetary system is undergoing reforms to make it more robust and effective. The long-overdue implementation of decisions by the IMF and the World Bank to increase the shares of voting power for developing nations was finally settled late last year, giving the world much hope that global governance reform is indeed the common aspiration of all nations.

All above advances reveal movement from “governance by the West” to “co-governance by both East and West”, figuratively speaking. This mega-trend in global governance will no doubt continue in 2016 as China will chair the G20 Summit in September in Hangzhou. China is expected to propose new ideas on how the world economy should be restructured to bring about new momentum for growth.

Fourthly, big power cooperation and friction will both increase in the year, an interesting development of interaction reflecting the reshaping of big-power relations. There are at least three areas where big powers should cooperate closely in order to make the world a better place for all.

Needless to say, the G20 must do a better job of macro-economic coordination. The global economy has lost steam with the outdated mode of growth and has been desperately seeking new paths for economic development. In this transition, almost all countries are engaged in structural adjustments. Without close cooperation and policy coordination, the global economy will teeter and fall down again. The G20, with over 80% of world GDP under its belt, has replaced the G7 as the primary platform for global economic coordination and its members are duty-bound as major stakeholders in the global economy to make it work again. The need to avoid negative spillovers of national economic policies is obvious. The timing of the Fed's rate increases is a case in point.

The next critical thing is the close cooperation and consultation by big powers to reduce tensions in various hot spots and to fight terrorism, most notably in the Middle East. The role of the UN needs to be enhanced and greater support be given to its efforts both in making peace and keeping peace.

China has taken the lead in proposing building “new type of big-power relations” based on cooperation and consultation. In this connection, both the US and China, being permanent members of the Security Council and core members of the G20, should play a leadership role in shaping their relationship along these lines.

It is easy to list problems and difficult issues that need to be solved. It is quite another to put all of our wits and determination together in offering feasible solutions to these problems. This is exactly what should be done at the beginning of the new year！