Despite the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election and the return of Donald Trump to the White House, the urgency of addressing climate change remains as pressing as ever. While political shifts may alter the tone and tactics of U.S.-China bilateral discourse on the matter, the reality of a warming planet—marked by rising temperatures, devastating storms, and increasingly unpredictable weather patterns—transcends any one administration. The urgency of climate action still remains, and as the world's largest emitters, both the United States and China have a crucial responsibility to stay engaged and take decisive action.
The United States and China share a 30-year history of climate cooperation that not only spans bilateral efforts but also plays a pivotal role in shaping the multilateral landscape. Notably, in 2014, both countries, led by then-President Barack Obama and President Xi Jinping, made historic commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, setting the stage for the landmark Paris Agreement—an agreement that countries around the world are striving to achieve.
But despite past triumphs, the increasing difficulties in recent years, such as the suspension of climate talks after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022, serve as stark reminders that issues of climate may not be as immune to instability as once believed.
For years, climate diplomacy between the United States and China has focused largely on mitigation: reducing emissions to slow the pace of global warming. And in many ways, this focus has paid off. Yet, as the climate crisis intensifies, it has become clear that mitigation alone cannot shield us from the effects of climate change. Rising sea levels, more frequent and intense storms, droughts, wildfires, and disruptions to agriculture are already wreaking havoc worldwide.
As both nations face the mounting impacts of climate change, it is clear that the next frontier of climate cooperation must focus on adaptation and resilience. It is essential for both countries to reorient their efforts and embrace a broader, more inclusive approach that goes beyond mitigation, tackling the immediate impacts of climate change and building long-term resilience in vulnerable communities. It's here that both countries can have a transformative impact and potentially define a new frontier of U.S.-China engagement.
The Adaptation Gap
On the back of continued extreme weather events, adaptation concerns, specifically the costs surrounding efforts, have become more prevalent. Despite the focus on adaptation in many high-level speeches at COP29—held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11–24—the Adaptation Fund managed to secure a mere US$61 million, far short of the US$300 million target. The figure pales in comparison to the current adaptation finance gap estimated at US$187–359 billion per year. Another concern raised at COP was the outstanding pledged amounts of adaptation finance as more than $122 million of pledged financial support to poor nations for adapting to climate risk have yet to be delivered.
Recent Adaptation Achievements
At COP29, both China and the United States welcomed, announced, and endorsed adaptation measures. China's initiatives were especially direct and attracted significant attention.
China was strong on this front and announced the release of its Action Plan on Early Warning for Climate Change Adaptation (2025–2027). Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang called for strengthening early-warning systems and enhancing climate adaptation capacity whilst also announcing the launch of a flagship South-South cooperation project that will provide developing countries with meteorological observation equipment, early-warning systems, and training.
In addition, at the High-Level Forum on South-South Cooperation in Combating Climate Change, Huang Runqiu, China's minister of ecology and environment, emphasized that China has signed 53 memoranda of understanding with 42 developing countries within the framework of South-South cooperation. Key initiatives include the Africa Solar Belt Program, clean stove projects, early-warning systems, and low-carbon transportation initiatives which all reinforce adaptation and resilience measures.
China also concentrated its efforts on prioritizing small island states, an especially vulnerable group to the extreme impacts of climate change. Speaking at the China Pavilion on the “International Zero-Carbon Island Cooperation Initiative,” Vice Premier Ding highlighted the importance of ensuring small island state survival by promoting resource and experience sharing and technology exchange and by helping small island countries better cope with the challenges of climate change. Additionally, Ding reinforced China's commitment to furthering adaptation and resilience action by strengthening island infrastructure, construction and enhancing scientific research, and technological innovation in disaster prevention and reduction.
Though no new measures were announced, the United States endorsed eight declarations as part of the COP29 Presidency's Action Agenda. These were not exclusively adaptation focused but did contain related elements. On adaptation, the United States said it already contributes US $2 billion per year.
Important to note is the United States President's Emergency Plan for Adaptation and Resilience (PREPARE), a primarily adaptation and resilience focused initiative which houses the majority of funds the United States provides on this agenda item This initiative started in 2021 and aims to help more than half a billion people in developing countries adapt to and manage the impacts of climate change by 2030. In the 2023 fiscal year, under PREPARE, US$267 million was mobilised for climate change adaptation with additional funding being given to agriculture, energy, water supply, and sanitation among others.
Both countries face the prospect of considerable economic loss if measures are not taken to strengthen adaptation and resilience efforts. Climate-related extreme weather events cost the global economy more than $2 trillion over the past decade. The U.S. had the greatest economic losses over the period from 2014-2023 ($934.7 billion), followed by China at $267.9 billion. As of July, China's estimated direct economic loss from extreme weather events is around $US 13 billion, the worst first-half disaster-related loss China has borne since 2019, according to China's Emergency Management Ministry.
The Way Forward, Together
Given Washington and Beijing's shared interest in pursuing adaptation, both countries could harness this as a cooperative pathway forward. And there are two primary avenues for cooperation in this area, with consideration of the likely impacts of the incoming administration.
The first is to continue fostering subnational cooperation. A key outcome of the Sunnylands Statement was the further operationalization of the subnational cooperation working group. With a history of successful and sustained subnational cooperation between California and China, continuing to leverage this platform to drive adaptation efforts is a logical next step. While the sharing of any technologies seems to be off the table for the foreseeable future due to securitization concerns, dialogues to share best practices or new insights into adaptation and resilience efforts could be an effective mechanism.
Depending on the temperature of the relationship, subnational cooperation could evolve from dialogue into more tangible actions, such as localized efforts to transform food and water systems or build climate-resilient infrastructure. If these cooperative measures build momentum, they could lay the foundation for wider-scale collaboration, particularly if a more climate-friendly administration returns to power.
The second is to acknowledge that climate impacts are a direct threat to national security. As the climate crisis carries on, vulnerable countries will continue to bear the brunt of the impact. The next round of National Adaptation Plans is due next year and according to the UN Adaptation Gap Report, there are still 10 countries without any desire to put a plan in place, seven of which rank highly on the Fragile States Index.
At the same time, other consequences must also be considered. Geopolitical instability, especially in global supply chains, along with concerns over food and water security, could escalate, affecting both the United States and China. As such, an opportunity exists for Washington or Beijing to fill this void and provide support to these vulnerable countries. Whichever country takes proactive action to assist these nations could help mitigate the vulnerabilities exacerbated by inaction, while also strengthening its reputation as a global leader in this area.
This approach slightly deviates from traditional forms of engagement by incorporating elements of competition. The U.S. and China would essentially be competing to assist vulnerable nations, each using their respective strengths. For China, this could be leveraging its technological scale-up and capacity building, while for the United States, this could focus on financial flows and efficient resource allocation. In this regard, both countries can stay engaged—not only with each other, albeit in competition—but also in advancing the adaptation and resilience agenda in vulnerable countries.
As the international community navigates the uncertain direction climate action will take under the Trump administration, one thing is certain: there must be action taken to advance the adaptation and resilience agenda. The United States and China not only have a vested interest in this area but as a responsibility as to the two world's largest emitters to step up their response. While ambiguity surrounds the way forward, engagement taking the form of subnational cooperation and proactive engagement in vulnerable countries—driven by a competitive model—offers a viable path forward for much-needed ambition.
