美國國防部長馬克·埃斯珀

在美國正式宣布退出《中程導彈條約》後，美國新任防長埃斯珀稱，美國希望在亞洲部署中程導彈。這一言論很快在亞太地區引發廣泛爭議，絕大多數區內國家均不願看到亞洲出現導彈競賽的可怕場景。

部署中程導彈成為埃斯珀上任後首次訪問亞洲的議題之一。然而，該提議並未得到美國盟友的積極回應。澳大利亞、韓國明確反對在其境內部署該裝備，其他國家則不願就此公開表態。中國、俄羅斯、柬埔寨等區內國家激烈反對該提議，認為這種做法對地區穩定帶來消極影響。在得到這些反應後，美國並沒有完全放棄它的設想。國務院負責軍備控制的官員稱，美國仍在與盟國討論恰當的部署方式。8月底，美國試射了一枚中程導彈。

2019年8月18日，美國在加州試射一枚常規陸基巡航導彈。

在部署中程導彈上，美國與其亞太盟友的分歧要比其他軍事議題更大。在美國看來，在亞太部署中程導彈可以達到三重目的，能夠塑造對美國更為有利的區域戰略環境。

目的之一是降低中國對美國的“非對稱”威懾能力。美國軍方認為，中國軍方的反介入/區域拒止能力是美國在亞太所面臨的主要軍事威脅。這種策略削弱了美國基於海上作戰平台和制空權所建立的軍事優勢，限制了美國在西太平洋軍事行動的策略選擇。美國化解該策略可選擇兩種方式，一種是利用技術優勢顯著削弱中國反介入能力，另一種則是採取對沖策略降低中國使用反介入能力的意願。在中國周邊部署中程導彈屬於後一種方案。

目的之二是加深亞太盟友與美國的戰略捆綁。在亞洲盟國部署中程導彈將加速亞太版本“北約”的形成，迫使亞洲盟國加入美國的作戰指揮和態勢感知體系。美國亞太盟友與中國、俄羅斯的關係也會因此惡化，亞太地區將加速形成兩個高度敵對的軍事陣營。

目的之三是為美國實現新一輪抵消戰略提供資源支持和時間窗口。時間方面，美國部署中程導彈將在區內掀起一輪導彈競賽，消耗美國主要競爭對手的資源，使其無法與美國展開科技競賽。資源方面，中程導彈的存在將減少美國在亞太地區傳統軍備的投入，讓美國能夠將更多軍費投入到中長期的科技研發上。

但是，對於廣大亞太國家來說，美國在任何一個國家部署該武器都可能引發一場不可控的軍備競賽，進而危及區內所有國家的安全。

首先，亞太地區的地理條件特殊，導彈軍備競賽升級的風險更大。《中程導彈條約》簽署前，美國和蘇聯曾經在歐洲大陸出現過嚴重的導彈競賽，讓整個歐洲都陷入危險之中。亞太地區的情況則更為複雜。亞洲不少國家由海洋或山脈所隔離，導彈不僅是各國面臨最主要的安全威脅，也很可能成為各國最優先採取的威懾手段。正是基於這種普遍擔憂，亞洲國家對於部署此類武器態度十分謹慎。美國在這一地區部署中程導彈則會打破這一微妙的平衡，增加各方的戰略猜疑，從而導致該地區出現軍備競賽。

其次，部署中程導彈將激化區內潛在危機。冷戰結束以來，相比世界上的其他地緣板塊，亞太地區是最為安全的地區。這種和平基於各方都在儘力管控安全風險。在這一地區部署中程導彈將激化台灣問題和南海問題，很可能讓各方在朝鮮半島無核化上的努力前功盡棄。

最後，部署中程導彈將危及亞太國家的商業互信。美國部署中程導彈所引發的戰略猜疑將損害各國的商業互信。這種衝擊將直接表現在航道安全上。近期的伊朗危機中，伊朗方面曾透露可能利用導彈封鎖中東石油通道。導彈競賽可能會使類似的風險在亞太再現，這將給區內貿易帶來毀滅性打擊。

從埃斯珀此次亞太之行的效果看，美國低估了亞洲盟友對中程導彈這種以鄰為壑策略的警惕。亞洲國家都清楚，美國本土並不會受到亞洲導彈競賽的影響。這種策略只會弱化亞洲國家的戰略自主性，不符合這些國家的長期利益。

U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper

After the United States officially withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said that the country hopes to deploy medium-range missiles in Asia. This remark quickly sparked widespread controversy, and most countries don't want to see the terrible scene of a missile race in the region.

The deployment of medium-range missiles had become one of issues in Esper's first visits to Asia. The U.S. proposal had not received a positive response from allies. Australia and South Korea explicitly opposed the deployment of the equipment in their territory, while other countries avoided public statements. China, Russia and Cambodia are fiercely opposed to the proposal, which they said would have a negative impact on regional stability. After receiving such feedback, the United States did not abandon this idea. Officials from the U.S. State Department said the U.S. is still discussing appropriate deployment methods with its allies. At the end of August, the U.S. military tested a medium-range missile.

On August 18, 2019, the United States tested a conventional land-based cruise missile in California.

On the issue of medium-range missiles, the United States has greater differences with its Asia-Pacific allies than on other military issues. From the perspective of the U.S. military, the deployment of medium-range missiles in the region can achieve a triple purpose and create a more favorable regional strategic environment.

One of the purposes is to reduce China's asymmetric deterrence capability against the United States. The U.S. military believes that the anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capability by China is the main threat to the U.S. China's A2/AD weakens U.S. military superiority based on maritime combat platforms and air supremacy, and would limit its freedom of maneuver during a conflict in the western Pacific. There are two ways for the U.S. to resolve this strategy. One is to use technology advantages to significantly weaken China's A2/AD ability, and the other is to adopt a hedging strategy to reduce China's willingness to use A2/AD. The deployment of medium-range missiles around China supports the latter option.

The second purpose is to deepen the strategic bundling of Asia-Pacific allies with the United States. The deployment of medium-range missiles among Asian allies will accelerate the formation of an Asia-Pacific version of NATO, forcing those allies to join the U.S. command and reconnaissance system. The relationship between the U.S. allies and both China and Russia will deteriorate. The Asia-Pacific region will form into two hostile military camps.

The third purpose is to provide resources and time for a new U.S. offset strategy. In terms of time, the deployment of medium-range missiles by the U.S. will launch a missile race in the region, consuming the resources of major U.S. competitors and making it impossible to compete with the U.S. in innovation. In terms of resources, the medium-range missiles will reduce U.S. investment in traditional armaments in the region, allowing it to invest more money in long-term technology research.

However, for Asia-Pacific countries, the deployment of medium-range missiles may trigger an escalating arms race that threatens the security of all countries in the region.

First of all, the geographical conditions in the Asia-Pacific region are special, and the risk of an upgraded missile arms race is great. Many countries in Asia are isolated by oceans or mountains. Missiles are the most important security threat, as well as the priority for deterrence. Based on this general concern, Asian countries are cautious about deploying medium-range missiles. The deployment of such missiles by the U.S. will break the balance in the region and increase the strategic suspicions of all parties.

Second, the deployment of medium-range missiles will intensify the potential for security crises in the region. Since the end of the Cold War, the Asia-Pacific region is the safest region in the world. Peace is based on the fact that all parties are trying to manage their security risks. The deployment of medium-range missiles in this region will intensify the Taiwan and South China Sea issues and is likely to end the positive trend of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

Finally, the deployment of medium-range missiles by the U.S. will jeopardize commercial trust between Asia-Pacific countries and foster strategic suspicions. This kind of impact will be directly reflected in the safety of transportation routes. In the recent crisis, Iran warned that it might use missiles to block oil passage in the Middle East. A missile race in the Asia-Pacific region will allow similar risks to reappear, which will have a devastating effect on trade.

From the perspective of Esper's Asia-Pacific trip, the United States underestimated the vigilance of Asian allies on medium-range missiles. Asian countries know that the U.S. is immune to the Asian missile race. Such a strategy will only weaken the strategic autonomy of Asian countries and not serve their long-term interests.