當前，世界經濟滯脹風險上升，外部不穩定不確定因素增加，中國國內需求收縮、供給衝擊、預期轉弱三重壓力猶存。在此背景下，中國經濟實現全年增長預期目標有難度。但上半年，中國經濟頂住了超預期因素的衝擊，表現出了極強韌性。下半年，隨着高效統籌疫情防控和經濟社會發展，“一攬子”穩定經濟政策措施效應不斷顯現，中國經濟有望繼續回升。

一、四大亮點

上半年，中國GDP實際增長2.5%。二季度，受到疫情和境外多重因素影響，GDP增長了0.4%。5月、6月，得益於各項政策發力，主要經濟指標已出現回升向上的良好態勢。比如，規模以上工業增加值、製造業PMI都在回升，近兩月城鎮調查失業率下降。投資在上半年經濟增長過程中發揮了關鍵性作用。概括起來講，中國經濟運行有以下亮點：

第一，通脹控制較好。中央政府實施保供穩價政策，對沖了部分輸入性通脹。上半年，全國居民消費價格（CPI）同比上漲1.7%，6月份同比上漲2.5%；全國工業生產者出廠價格（PPI）同比上漲7.7%，6月份同比上漲6.1%。

第二，外貿進出口強勁增長。上半年，中國貨物進出口19.8萬億元，同比增長9.4%。其中，出口11.14萬億元，增長13.2%；進口8.66萬億元，增長4.8%；貿易順差2.48萬億元。不僅貿易規模擴大，貿易結構也在優化。一般貿易進出口增長13.1%，占進出口總額的比重為64.2%，比上年同期提高2.1個百分點。

第三，受美聯儲加息影響較小。隨着美聯儲加息，日元、英鎊、歐元均在貶值。相比之下，人民幣對美元匯率保持相對穩定，貶值幅度較小，呈現雙向波動，反映出中國金融體系和經濟基本面韌性都比較強。

第四，產業轉型升級加快。上半年，高技術製造業增加值同比增長9.6%，快於全部規模以上工業6.2個百分點。高技術製造業和服務業投資分別增長23.8%和12.6%。各項政策引導資金和資源流入低碳經濟領域。

上半年，中國經濟的優良表現主要受益於統籌疫情防控和經濟發展“一攬子”政策的有效實施。在保障物流暢通和供應鏈平穩方面，尤其是在穩定1.6億戶市場主體，包括中小微企業和個體工商戶方面，打出了政策“組合拳”，效果顯著。

二、物價表現較好

上半年，中國CPI整體在低位運行，平均只有1.7%；最近幾個月回升，6月份達到2.5%，符合3%左右的政策目標。與此同時，PPI逐月回落，從去年10月份最高點13.5%回落至今年6月份6.1%。尤其是基本消費品價格穩定，菜籃子工程、米袋子工程保障有力。食品價格相對穩定，市場規模擴大，保障了民眾基本生活需求。上游漲價，必然傳導到終端消費品，近期CPI溫和上升，這個趨勢會延續，但在可控範圍內。PPI回落，但下半年可能仍有一定上漲壓力。

全球通脹高企，具體體現在糧食、石油、天然氣、鐵礦石、煤炭等基礎原材料等價格上升。中國作為一個外向型經濟體，主要基礎商品依賴進口，自身努力只能部分對沖輸入性通脹壓力。原材料價格上漲，推升工業生產經營成本。中國是製造業大國，不可避免地遭受影響。中下游的中小微企業和民營企業受到影響最大。

三、外貿逆勢上漲

上半年，中國外貿進出口增長9.4%，難能可貴。對主要貿易夥伴，例如對東盟、歐盟、美國、日本、韓國、“一帶一路”沿線國家進出口都在增長。而且，高附加值的機電產品、服務貿易、數字貿易出口增長勢頭較好，新業態、新模式發展較快，一般貿易比重上升，與“一帶一路”沿線國家貿易增長快於平均水平，民營企業在出口中的比重上升。

下半年，外部需求會繼續收縮，對中國出口不利。此外，美元加息、人民幣貶值不利中國進口。同時，貿易條件和國際環境也存在諸多不確定性。

中國經濟韌性強，產業鏈配套能力世界獨一無二。中國將繼續推進改革開放，優化營商環境，加大研發投入，促進外貿轉型。但是，中國外貿增長速度可能會下降。

四、正常復蘇可期

展望未來，中國經濟仍然面臨諸多挑戰和潛在風險。從短期看，輸入性通脹壓力大、年輕人失業率高企、居民消費持續低迷、房地產市場深度調整、全球金融動蕩和市場預期不穩定等，都會影響中國經濟恢復正常。長期來看，老齡化社會來臨、新舊動能轉換和中美競爭加劇，也會影響中國經濟的可持續發展。

但從近兩個月的趨勢來看，中國主要經濟指標已經止跌企穩、回升反彈。我預計，三季度中國經濟會強勁反彈，GDP增長5%以上，四季度延續這個趨勢，但不會超過6%。明年中國經濟恢復正常，預計GDP增長5.2%。“十四五”期間，中國經濟平均增速可望保持在5%左右。

In the first half of this year, China's economy demonstrated great resilience that exceeded expectations. The risk of global stagflation is rising, compounded by mounting external instability, increasing uncertainty and the persistent triple-pressure of contracting domestic demand, supply shocks and weakened expectations.Against this backdrop, the Chinese economy faces significant headwinds as it seeks to achieve its annual growth target. But in the second half of the year, thanks to the efficient coordination of pandemic control and economic and social development, the policy mix for stabilizing the economy will shore up growth.

I. Four highlights

In the first half of this year, China's GDP grew by 2.5 percent in real terms. In the second quarter, it grew by 0.4 percent due to the impact of the ongoing pandemic and multiple external factors. In May and June, as the effect of various policies began to set in, key economic indicators suggested a rebound. For example, the added value of large-scale industries and manufacturing PMI picked up, and the urban surveyed unemployment rate has been dropping. Investment played a pivotal role in spurring economic growth in the first six months. In a nutshell, China's economy has distinct bright spots.

First, inflation is well under control. The central government implemented policies to shore up supply and stabilize prices, which help fend off the impact of imported inflation. In the first half of the year, the CPI rose by 1.7 percent year-on-year, and by 2.5 percent year-on-year, in June, while PPI in the same month rose by 7.7 percent year-on-year, and 6.1 percent year-on-year.

Second, foreign trade has grown strongly. In the first half of the year, China's imports and exports of goods amounted to 19.8 trillion yuan ($2.9 trillion), up 9.4 percent year-on-year. Exports accounted for 11.14 trillion yuan, up 13.2 percent, and imports for 8.66 trillion yuan, up 4.8 percent. Hence, the trade surplus topped 2.48 trillion yuan. Not only has trade grown in volume but its structure is also being optimized. General trade grew by 13.1 percent, accounting for 64.2 percent of aggregate trade volume, an increase of 2.1 percentage points over the same period last year.

Third, the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate hike has had a relatively modest impact on Chinese currency. While the increase caused the Japanese yen, British pound and euro to depreciate, the RMB remained relatively stable against the U.S. dollar, albeit with a moderate depreciation with two-way fluctuations. This reflects the resilience of China's financial system and its strong economic fundamentals.

Fourth, China's industrial transformation and upgrading has accelerated. In the first half of the year, the value added in the high-tech manufacturing industry grew by 9.6 percent year-on-year — 6.2 percentage points faster than all large-scale industries. Investment in high-tech manufacturing and service industries grew by 23.8 percent and 12.6 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, various policies have facilitated the flow of capital and resources to empower a low-carbon economy.

The stellar performance of the Chinese economy in the first six months is primarily due to effective implementation of a policy mix coordinating the pandemic response with economic development. This mix has proved effective in ensuring the smooth functioning of logistics and supply chains — especially in shoring up China's 160 million market players, including small, medium and micro enterprises and the self-employed.

II. Inflation controlled relatively well

In the first half of the year, the CPI as a whole was running at a low level, averaging only 1.7 percent. It has picked up in recent months, reaching 2.5 percent in June, in line with the policy target of around 3 percent. Meanwhile, the PPI fell month-on-month, from a peak of 13.5 percent in October last year to 6.1 percent in June this year. In particular, prices of basic consumer goods remained stable, thus providing robust support for the “vegetable basket project” and “rice bag project.”Food prices have remained relatively stable as the market supply has grown, thus ensuring the supply of basic essentials. The price hike upstream is bound to be transmitted to consumer goods, and so the recent trend of moderate gain in CPI may continue, but within a controllable range. PPI has dropped, but the second half of the year may still see some upward pressure.　

Global inflation has remained elevated and is reflected in the rising prices of primary raw materials, such as food, oil, natural gas, iron ore and coal. As an externally oriented economy, China relies on imports for its primary commodities, and so domestic supplies only partially offset imported inflationary pressure. Rising prices of raw materials lead to higher industrial costs, which means repercussions for China as a large manufacturing country. Small, medium, micro and private enterprises in the middle and lower reaches are set to bear the brunt.

III. Foreign trade rises against trend

In the first half of the year, China's foreign trade grew by a remarkable 9.4 percent. Imports and exports to major trading partners, such as ASEAN, the European Union, the United States, Japan, South Korea and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative saw growth. Moreover, exports of high value-added electromechanical products, trade in services and digital trade are growing at a faster pace. New industries and models are developing faster, and the proportion of general trade is increasing. Trade with Belt and Road countries is growing faster than average. And private enterprises account for a larger portion of China's exports.

In the second half of the year, China may well face the headwind of shrinking external demand. In addition, the rate hike by the U.S. Fed and the devaluation of the Chinese yuan will also work against China's imports, a problem compounded by other uncertainties in trade and the international environment.

That said, China's economy is resilient, as it is supported by unparalleled industrial chains. The country will continue to promote reform and opening-up, optimize the business environment, increase investment in research and development and promote the transformation of the foreign trade mix. But we still need to bear in mind the prospect of slower trade growth.

IV. Recovery expected

Looking ahead, China's economy faces multiple challenges and potential risks. In the short term, several factors will weigh on economic recovery, including imported inflationary pressure, high unemployment among youth, subdued consumer spending, a profound adjustment in the real estate market and turbulence in global financial markets. In the long run, an aging population, a shift of gears from old to new growth drivers an heightened competition between China and the United States will also pose challenges to the sustainable development of the Chinese economy.

China's major economic indicators have stabilized and are on the rebound. If the trajectory of the past two months is any guide, I expect China's economy to rebound strongly in the third quarter, with GDP growth reaching over 5 percent and momentum continuing into the fourth quarter, but range-bound at 6 percent. As for 2023, China's economy is expected to return to normal, with GDP growth reaching 5.2 percent. Over the course of the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), China's economy is expected to maintain an average growth rate of around 5 percent.