中國國家主席習近平、俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京、印尼總統佐科·維多多，出席“一帶一路”國際論壇。

美國和中國的貿易戰創造了東南亞實力競爭的新維度。中國的“一帶一路”倡議和美國的“印太戰略”或許隨着兩國企業尋求新邊疆而獲得新的動力。雖然特朗普總統和習近平主席在布宜諾斯艾利斯達成了不確定的休戰，但這一休戰在不久之後就會經受考驗。因此，美國和中國企業會繼續遷往東南亞，或擴大它們在該地區已有的影響力。這一地區已經做好充分準備，來吸收重新定向的來自世界兩個最大經濟體的貿易和投資。對東南亞地區來說，這場貿易戰可以啟動它們亟需的改革，或者使目前提高競爭力的步伐加快。然而，由於發展水平參差不齊，一些國家似乎比其他國家更容易從貿易戰中獲益。

東南亞地區充滿活力。它有年輕的人口，有大量的適齡勞動力，有龐大的消費需求，有不斷增加的基礎設施投資，有相對的政治穩定。按照世界銀行2017年的數據，該地區68%的人口在15-64歲。AC尼爾森估計，到2020年，該地區的中產階級人口將達到4億，比2012年多一倍。區域經濟越來越具有競爭力，世界經濟論壇2017-18年全球競爭力指數顯示，與上年相比，馬來西亞、菲律賓和泰國略有進步（排名上升一到兩位），而汶萊、印度尼西亞和越南則取得令人矚目的進展（排名上升了五位以上）。該地區也是全球價值鏈中最活躍的地區之一，聯合國貿發會議2017年全球投資報告顯示，在全球價值鏈參與率方面，新加坡達到76%，馬來西亞為64%，菲律賓為58%，泰國為52%，越南為51%。泰國、馬來西亞、越南、印度尼西亞和菲律賓還都是發展中國家中位居前列的出口國。

所有這些都有助於該地區吸引外國、尤其是美國和中國這類貿易戰主角國家的資本。中國和美國分別是東盟的最大和第四大貿易夥伴。不過，雖然中國在貿易領域佔主導地位，但美國仍然是該地區的最大投資國。目前有3000多家美國公司在該地區開展業務， 2017年東盟商業前景調查報告顯示，在這些美國公司當中，87%的公司預計未來五年將增加對東盟的貿易和投資。而且，東盟對美國的投資其實也比對中國多。即便如此，中國在投資領域也取得了巨大進展，成為了柬埔寨、緬甸、老撾和馬來西亞的最大投資國，以及新加坡和越南的第二大投資國。

東南亞正在迅速成為吸引中國海外直接投資的一塊磁石。在2017年經濟學人智庫（EIU）對59個經濟體進行的調查中，新加坡超過美國成為中國海外資本的首選目的地。在中國投資方面，該地區其他國家的排名也上升了幾個級數，其中包括排名第四的馬來西亞（2015年排名第20位）、泰國（2015年第38位，2017年第18位）、印度尼西亞（從2015年的第44位升至第26位），菲律賓（從2015年的第39位升至第28位）和越南（從2015年的第40位升至第30位）。按照國家來細分中國的全球行業投資，則進一步顯示了該地區對這個龐大北方鄰國的重要性。越南是中國汽車領域投資的第五大目標市場，新加坡是它的第三大金融服務市場。在消費品方面，馬來西亞、越南、新加坡、菲律賓和印度尼西亞分別是中國的第二、第四、第五、第六和第九大市場。在能源領域，越南、印度尼西亞、菲律賓和泰國分別是中國的第四、第五、第六和第八大市場。此外，菲律賓和馬來西亞還是中國企業的第九和第十大電信市場。

中國地理位置接近，出資慷慨，產能過剩，再加上有中國-東盟自貿協定的正式機制和“一帶一路”等倡議，這些都有助於中國在該地區開展經濟外交。2013年選擇在雅加達宣布21世紀海上絲綢之路和亞投行計劃，也說明中國對該地區的重視。與東盟互聯互通總體規劃相契合的新加坡-昆明鐵路項目的竣工，將進一步讓東南亞大陸和中國融為一體。同樣，對工業園區和港口基礎設施的投資（如馬來西亞的關丹和馬六甲、緬甸的皎漂、柬埔寨的西哈努克市，以及中方有興趣的印度尼西亞新不碌港和肯德爾港項目、泰國的克拉地峽運河項目），也使中國定位為區域互聯互通的推動者。

相比之下，較少的制度安排（如東盟與美國的“貿易與投資框架協議”和“擴大經濟合作計劃”），對於緊縮開支的看法，“印太戰略”中並不十分明確的經濟維度，都對美國繼續與該地區接觸構成了挑戰。雖然人們歡迎通過努力利用私人融資，以及同日本和澳大利亞等合作夥伴的合作，來滿足該地區迅速增長的基礎設施融資需求，但是，動員私人資本的拖拖拉拉，私人資本對高風險的厭惡，這些都加大了國有資本的優勢。即便如此，對既定標準的承諾和給當地帶來更多機會，顯然構成了私人融資的優勢。雖然規模相對較小，但美國宣布給該地區的1.13億美元基礎設施、技術和能源投資首付款依然受到了歡迎，因為它具有促進私人資本流動的潛力。

對外貿易結構為東南亞國家提供了一定的緩衝和機會。在該地區與中美兩國的貿易中，電機和設備及零部件是最高等級商品，占對華貿易的近30%，占對美貿易的1/4。與容易被替代的低端產品，如農業出口產品相比，價值鏈的深度融合和產品附加值的日益提高可以確保在激烈的貿易戰中擁有更大的抗壓能力。該地區消費群體的存在也有可能吸引更多的製造商南遷。

此外，儘管美國在特朗普政府治下越來越傾向於雙邊主義，但東南亞國家對多邊自貿協定的積極關注仍然能夠給該地區帶來好處。馬來西亞、新加坡和越南是重新命名的“全面與進步跨太平洋夥伴關係協定” （CPTPP）的簽署國（2018年3月），新加坡於今年7月批准了這一協定。印度尼西亞、菲律賓和泰國也表示有興趣加入該貿易協定。東盟十國還在積极參与“區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定”（RCEP）談判，去年這一談判在馬尼拉舉行了首次領導人會議，協議有望於今年11月在新加坡簽署。奇怪的是，CPTPP和RCEP美國都缺席，雖然特朗普總統確實提出美國重新加入CPTPP的可能性，但他的前提條件是重新談判條款使之有利於美國的利益。

隨着貿易戰加劇，東南亞國家正在尋找相應的調整和適應方法。那些已經同美國和中國有較高貿易投資額的國家有望獲得更多投資。越南、馬來西亞和泰國是中國在該地區的最大貿易夥伴，不奇怪的是，這些國家也是美國在該地區的最大貿易夥伴之一。雖然這些國家有自己獨特的發展環境，但它們的發展戰略中也有共通之處，例如要繼續進行機構能力建設和基礎設施投資。因此，與同類國家相比，早先滿足了基本發展需求的國家如今擁有一定的競爭力。儘管如此，其他區域國家也沒有袖手旁觀，相反，它們正在各自採取措施，確保讓中美貿易戰轉化為一次機遇。

President of China Xi Jinping, President of Russia Vladimir Putin, President of Indonesia Joko Widodo at the Belt & Road International Forum

The United States-China trade war is creating a new dimension for power rivalry in Southeast Asia. China's Belt and Road Initiative and America's Indo-Pacific strategy may receive fresh impetus as companies in both countries seek out new frontiers. Although an uneasy truce between President Trump and Xi was reached in Buenos Aires, it will soon be tested. As such, U.S. and Chinese firms will continue to relocate to Southeast Asia or expand their existing footprint in the region. The region is well poised to absorb re-directed trade and investment flows from the world's two largest economies. For Southeast Asia, the trade war can also kick-start much needed reforms or accelerate the pace of present efforts to boost competitiveness. However, due to uneven levels of development and diversity, some countries are better positioned to benefit from the trade war than others.

Southeast Asia is dynamic and robust. It has a youthful population with a large labor-age force, large consumer demand, increasing infrastructure investments, and relative political stability. Based on World Bank 2017 figures, 68% of the region's population is between 15 and 64. AC Nielsen estimates the region's middle class will reach 400 million by 2020, doubling 2012 figures. Regional economies are increasingly more competitive. The World Economic Forum 2017-18 Global Competitiveness Index showed modest gains (one-two notches in the rankings) made by Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand compared to their previous year's performance, while Brunei, Indonesia and Vietnam made impressive strides (five and above places' ascent in the rankings). The region is also among the most active in global value chains (GVCs). The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development's 2017 World Investment Report listed Singapore's GVC participation rate at 76%, Malaysia's at 64%, Philippines' at 58%, Thailand's at 52%, and Vietnam's at 51%. Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are also among the top exporting countries from the developing world.

All these contribute in making the region attractive to foreign capital, not least from trade war protagonists, such as the U.S. and China. China and the U.S. are ASEAN's largest and fourth largest trade partners respectively. However, while China dominates the trade scene, the U.S. remains the region's top investor. More than 3,000 US companies do business in the region and the 2017 ASEAN Business Outlook Survey showed that 87% of these American firms anticipate greater trade and investment in ASEAN in the next five years. In addition, ASEAN is actually investing more in the U.S. than in China. This said, China has been making tremendous inroads in the investment space as well, becoming the top investor for Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, and Malaysia, and the second largest investor for Singapore and Vietnam.

Southeast Asia is fast becoming a magnet for China's overseas direct investment (ODI). In a survey of 59 economies done by The Economist Intelligence Unit in 2017, Singapore had eclipsed the U.S. to become the top destination for Chinese outbound capital. Other regional countries have also climbed up several notches in terms of Chinese investment. This includes fourth ranked Malaysia (up from 20th in 2015), Thailand (ranked 18th in 2017 from 38th in 2015), Indonesia (ranked 26th from 44th in 2015), Philippines (ranked 28th from 39th in 2015) and Vietnam (ranked 30th from 40th in 2015). Breaking down China's global sectoral investments by country will further reveal the region's significance for its big northern neighbor. Vietnam was the fifth largest target market for Chinese investments in the automobile sector, while Singapore is the third largest market for financial services. In terms of consumer goods, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Philippines, and Indonesia were ranked second, fourth, fifth, sixth, and ninth top markets respectively. In the energy field, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, and Thailand were ranked fourth, fifth, sixth, and eighth largest markets respectively. In addition, Philippines and Malaysia accounted for the ninth and tenth largest telecoms markets for Chinese enterprises.

China's proximity, financial largesse, surplus capacity, formal mechanisms such as the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement, and initiatives like the Belt and Road support its economic diplomacy in the region. Choosing Jakarta as the venue to announce the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank back in 2013 also demonstrate the importance China attaches to the region. The completion of the Singapore-Kunming railway project, which jives with the ASEAN Master Plan for Connectivity, will further integrate mainland Southeast Asia with China. Likewise, investments into industrial park and port infrastructure (e.g. Kuantan and Melaka in Malaysia, Kyaukpyu in Myanmar, Sihanoukville in Cambodia, interest in Indonesian port projects like New Priok and Kendal and in Thailand's Kra Canal project) will position China as a facilitator of regional connectivity.

In contrast, less institutional arrangements (e.g. the ASEAN-US Trade and Investment Framework Agreement and Expanded Economic Engagement), perceptions of retrenchment, and the less-pronounced economic dimension of the Indo-Pacific strategy present challenges for continued U.S. engagement with the region. While efforts to leverage private finance and collaboration with partners like Japan and Australia to meet the region's burgeoning demand for infrastructure funding are welcomed, delays in mobilizing private capital and its higher risk aversion heighten the advantage of state capital. That said, commitment to established standards and greater opportunities for local content apparently constitute the pros of private financing. Although relatively small, the U.S. announcement of a $113 million down payment for infrastructure, technology, and energy investments in the region was welcomed, as it has the potential to catalyze private capital flows.

The structure of its external trade provides some cushion and opportunities for Southeast Asia. Electrical machinery and equipment and parts thereof constitute the top class of goods traded by the region with both the U.S. and China, accounting for close to 30% of its trade with China and a quarter of its trade with the U.S. Deep integration in the value chain and increasingly higher value added ensure greater resilience amidst the raging trade war compared to churning out easily substitutable low-end goods, such as agricultural exports. The presence of downstream ecosystem in the region may also entice more manufacturers to head south.

Furthermore, despite America's increasing preference for bilateralism under the Trump administration, Southeast Asia's active interest in multilateral free trade agreements will still offer benefits for the region. Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam are signatories (March 2018) to the rebranded Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), with Singapore ratifying last July. Indonesia, Philippines, and Thailand also expressed their interest to join the trade pact. The ten-country bloc are also actively taking part in negotiations for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The first summit was held in Manila last year and the agreement is expected to be signed this November in Singapore. The U.S. is curiously absent in both the CPTPP and RCEP, although President Trump did raise the possibility of the U.S. rejoining the CPTPP if terms can be renegotiated to benefit American interests.

As the trade war intensifies, Southeast Asia is finding ways to adjust and adapt accordingly. Countries which already have a higher trade and investment portfolio with both the U.S. and China are expected to get even more investment. Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand are China's top trading partners in the region and not surprisingly, these countries are also among America's biggest trade partners in the region. While these countries have their own unique developmental milieus, they share several elements in development strategies, such as continued institutional capacity building and infrastructure investments. As such, countries that were early to address basic developmental requirements now enjoy some competitive headway compared to their peers. This said, other regional countries are not sitting idly by and are instead taking their own measures to ensure that they can turn the US-China trade war into an opportunity.