從公布的數據來看，今年一季度中國GDP增長6.7%，好於市場預期。特別是3月份許多數據更是讓人信心大增，比如，國內固定資產投資增長11.1%，比1、2月時的10.2%加速；基建投資增長19.6%；房地產開發投資上升6.2%；規模以上工業產值增長6.8%，為去年6月以來最高水平。其中，水泥產量大增24%，汽車和鋼材也分別增長8.9%及3.3%。

看到這些數據市場一片歡呼，認為中國經濟已經開始觸底回升。試想，歐美國家GDP增長不到2%，中國則可達近7%，中國的GDP增長是歐美國家三倍以上。這時，要再說中國經濟會硬着陸根本就不可能。不過，當前中國經濟應該是喜中有憂。

從現有的數據來看，儘管一季度GDP增長是在政府的規劃目標內，但它是重新在走早幾年通過大搞基礎設施、過度信貸擴張來促使房地產市場及房價上漲的老路。也就是說，一季度GDP增長主要得助於政府增加基礎建設及房價上漲並拉動住房銷售增加來實現的。以這樣的方式來保證中國的GDP增長，或許還可持續一年半載，但沒有可持續性，甚至問題會更大。

首先從國內固定資產投資增長情況來看，今年一季度的增長是有所好轉，但是這種增長主要表現為增加大型基礎設施投資，表現為國有企業投資增長及房地產投資增長，而民營經濟固定資產投資不僅沒有增長，反而出現了下降。因為，在當前的形勢下，民營企業並不看好國內經濟前景，也不願意增加投資。對於大型公共基礎設施的投資，增加一些沒有多少問題，它總是會有一個長期效應。但這裡有兩個問題要解決，一是政府財政能否支持，二是這些低效益投資如何維持。如果政府財政支持不了，就會面臨著許多問題。比如目前地方政府的債務問題，就是中國金融市場中的一個巨大潛在風險。

還有，今年一季度的GDP增長比市場預期要好，與政府過度信貸擴張支持房地產有關。從所公布的數據來看，今年一季度新增貸款達到4.61萬億元。其中，房地產新增貸款1.5萬億元，個人住房按揭貸款更是新增加1萬多億元，增幅達一倍。一季度社會融資規模高達6.59萬億元，而這些資金有3萬多億流入房地產市場。可以說，這些數據都創歷史最高紀錄。這不僅表明今年的信用過度擴張程度比2009年更為嚴重，也意味着信用過度擴張的資金沒有流入實體經濟而是流入房地產。

更為重要的是，今年一季度GDP增長不僅主要來自於房地產拉動，更是來自於信用過度擴張把房價推高，來自於房價上漲的拉動。一季度70個大中城市有62個城市的房價同比上漲，而一線城市房價上漲的瘋狂更是前所未有，比如深圳同比上漲62%以上。一季度全國住房銷售總額增長幅度比住房銷售面積增長幅度快一倍以上。

這些都表明當前一線二線城市的住房市場復蘇很大程度上是建立在房價快速上漲的基礎上，建立在絕大多數有房者利用當前國家住房按揭貸款的優惠條件及稅收優惠條件投機炒作的結果，而不是住房消費需求的釋放。正因為這樣，只要城市房價上漲，住房投機炒作者就會千方百計湧入這些市場，並讓這些城市的房價狂升，但對於近一年來房價沒有起色或沒有上漲的三四線城市，儘管這些城市的房價並不高，但是由於投資者不進入，無論政府採取什麼救市政策，這些地方的住房市場就是難以復蘇，房地產市場的庫存也無法消化。

但是，如果住房市場僅是投資投機者瘋狂炒作，在當前許多城市房價非常高的情況下，再繼續把這些城市的房價泡沫吹大，雖然短期內這些城市的住房銷售會增長，住房供給很快又會出來，房地產市場可出現繁榮，GDP會上去，但這種房地產市場的繁榮不僅不可持續，而且面臨的風險更大。同時，房價過高對居民的消費具有嚴重的擠出效應。一季度社會消費增長只有10.3%，比去年全年10.7%有所放緩，其負向作用十分明顯。

所以，對於當前中國的經濟形勢，一方面要看到GDP增長下行的壓力有所放緩，經濟增長有所反彈，但這主要是靠政府基礎設施投入及房地產投機炒作來拉動，而居民內需並不是那樣理想。就此，中國經濟喜中有憂十分明顯。

Recently released figures show that China's GDP in the first quarter grew by 6.7%, better than market expectations. In particular, many figures from March are very encouraging. For example, domestic fixed-asset investment grew by 11.1%, higher than 10.2% from January to February; infrastructure investment increased by 19.6%; investment in real estate development grew by 6.2%; production of large-scale industries grew by 6.8%, the highest level since last June. In large-scale industries, the cement output rose sharply by 24%. Auto and steel industries also increased 8.9% and 3.3% respectively.

The market cheered at these figures, believing than China's economy had begun to bottom out and rebound. Just think, the GDP of the US and European countries grew less than 2% while China's GDP was approaching 7%, three times greater. So it is absurd to predict that China's economy will have a hard landing. However, the cheering about China's economy is mixed with worry now.

Although GDP growth in the first quarter hit the target set by the government, it again took the old road: Intensive infrastructure construction and excessive credit expansion were used to push up prices in the real estate market and the home prices like in the past years. That is to say, the GDP growth in the first quarter mainly came from increased government infrastructure construction and home sales boosted by surging home prices. China's GDP growth fueled by these sectors could continue for one year or so but not constantly and may even create a bigger problem.

First, the domestic fixed-asset investment growth improved in the first quarter but the growth mainly occurred due to the increased large-scale infrastructure investment, the increased investment of the State-Owned Enterprises and the increased real estate investment. However, the fixed-asset investment of private enterprises decreased instead of increasing. In the present situation, the private enterprises are not optimistic about domestic economic prospects and are unwilling to increase investment. As to the large public infrastructure investment, it is all right to increase some investment, for this investment will always have a long-term effect, but two issues must be solved. The first is whether the government can support it; the second is how the investment with a low return can be supported. If the government finance fails to give support, many issues will arise. For instance, now the high debt of local governments is a huge potential risk in China's financial market.

Meanwhile, the government has supported the real estate market through excessive credit expansion. The recent figures show that new loans in the first quarter of the year rose to 4.61 trillion yuan. New loans for real estate accounted for 1.5 trillion yuan, of which new personal home mortgage loans increased to 1 trillion yuan. The total social financing in the first quarter was as high as 6.59 trillion yuan, 3 trillion yuan of which flew to the real estate market. These are all-time high figures. It not only indicates that credit expansion this year is more excessive than even in 2009, but also highlights that the capital from that expansion did not flow to the real economy but rather to real estate.

In fact, the GDP growth was led by rising home prices because of the excessive credit expansion. In the first quarter, home prices in 62 out of the 70 large-and-medium sized cities rose over the same period while home prices in the first-tier cites went unprecedentedly crazy. For example, home prices in Shenzhen rose by 62% over the same period. Besides, total national home sales in the first quarter increased over one time faster than the saleable home area.

All these figures show that, to a large extent, the current home market in the first-tier and the second-tier cities revived because of the fast-rising home prices and because of the speculative manipulation by many home owners taking advantage of the preferential household mortgage loan policies and preferential tax policies, rather than a real demand for more housing. If any city has rising home prices, home speculators have been flooding into that market and make home prices skyrocket. But for almost a year, for those third-tier and fourth-tier cities where home prices did not increase, because investors did not enter these cities despite low home prices and no matter what bailout policies the government had taken, the housing market of these cities remained stagnant and the housing inventories could not be digested.

However, if the housing market is manipulated only by speculators, in the current situation where many cities have very high prices, the crazy home speculation in these cities will continue to make a bigger price bubble. Of course, these cities will have rising home sales in the short-term and the home supply will be quickly replenished, then the real estate market will boom and GDP can go up. But, this real estate market boom is not only unsustainable, it also will ultimately squeeze out buyers seeking a place to live instead of short-term economic gain. Social consumption only grew by 10.3% in the first quarter, lower than last year's figure of 10.7%, and the negative effect is very clear.

So, China's current economic situation is that the downward pressure of GDP growth has eased a bit and the economy has rebounded somewhat mainly because of government's investment in the infrastructure and the real estate speculation while the domestic residential demand is not so satisfying. Therefore, there is obviously a mixed picture about China's economy.