中國國家主席習近平（左）和印度總理納倫德拉·莫迪（右）在中國東南部的福建省廈門市舉行的金磚國家首腦會議期間會晤。（法新社）

8月28日，中國外交部發言人華春瑩宣布，當日下午14點30分，在中印洞朗對峙的地方，印方將越界人員和設備全部撤回到邊界印方一側，中方現場人員對此進行了確認。至此，持續兩個多月的緊張對峙告一段落。觀察家注意到，雙方對這一事件的結局雖然有不同的說法，但是人們對中印之間可能爆發戰爭的擔憂就像一塊石頭落地，心理緊張瞬間消除。儘管兩國國內的媒體和民間還在為誰輸誰贏繼續爭執，但是兩國官方和民間普遍對現有解決方式比較滿意。應該說，任何外交談判都沒有單方面的勝者。如今，印方人員撤到邊界印方一側，說明中國的基本主張得到伸張，而中方的某些變通做法也使得印方在一定程度上保全了面子。這種做法應該被視為鄰國處理複雜雙邊關係的應取之道。

在中印關係緊張期間，雙方在洞朗前沿地區的摩擦不斷升級，時間持續10周之久。隨後各自淺近縱深甚至大縱深的軍隊都進行了機動和靠前部署，明確針對對方的實彈演習密集舉行。各自的媒體都把洞朗對峙作為頭版頭條或報道的主要內容，不少媒體甚至放出狠話，使得軍事對峙持續升溫，民間情緒調門升高，雙邊關係受到嚴重損害。現在，擺在兩國政府面前的問題是，如何真正消除未來發生摩擦的隱患，如何修復嚴重受損的雙邊關係，如何使民眾的情緒趨於冷靜。

筆者認為，雙方都應該在減少戰略誤判方面作出反思。兩國領導人應該利用有限的機會進行高層對話，通過有效和有益的對話，發送積極的善意和正面的信息，以此消除戰略敵意，減少戰略疑慮。這是中印處理雙邊關係的根本。只有明確互不構成威脅，才可能建立基本的互信。儘管中印之間還存在着邊界爭端、達賴集團和地緣政治方面的利益矛盾，但是中印絕不應該成為敵對的國家。中印山水相連，作為鄰居是地理決定的，所以必須處理好雙邊關係。我們應該承認爭端，承認分歧，但是中印之間的共同利益遠遠大於分歧，雙方應該尋求一條適宜的相處之道。中國的國家戰略是實現“兩個一百年”的復興，堅持走和平發展的道路。印度也在尋求快速發展的強國之路，縮小包括與中國在內的其他大國的差距。兩個國家都難以承受相互敵對的狀態，睦鄰合作才是正確的選擇。

其次，雙方應該努力建立更為緊密的發展夥伴關係。中國正在努力發展經濟，力爭在業已取得的成就基礎上，加快實現經濟的轉型發展，實現高效、優質、環保前提下的較高增長率，進一步提高人民的生活水平。印度莫迪政府提出建立“新印度”的奮鬥目標，希望通過大力改善基礎設施，加快經濟的增長，使印度成為一個現代國家。在這方面，中印合作的潛力十分巨大。中國在基礎設施建設方面具有很多成功的經驗和技術，在對外投資方面擁有雄厚的資本，擁有13億以上人口的印度是一個容量巨大的市場。雙方開展經貿合作，將取得互利共贏的結果。

其三，雙方應該加強媒體的管控和引導。此次洞朗事件持續期間，雙方的媒體都發表了不少觀點極端甚至是突破外交底線的文章。在當今信息渠道十分發達的情況下，這些極不負責的言論直接引發了極端負面的效應，導致民族主義情緒蔓延，民粹主義毒瘤滋生，民眾對對方的感情嚴重下滑。

最後但同樣重要的，就是應大力開展民間交流。從目前的情況來看，中印兩國民眾的來往數量很少，彼此缺乏深入的認知。缺乏對對方歷史積澱、文化傳統、民族心理和戰略理念的了解，就很容易受到偏見的影響。一有外交風波或軍事摩擦，人們的情感很容易波動、衝動，對政府決策產生制約。此外，建立學術機構之間的“二軌”溝通，或者建立半官半民的“一軌半”機制，也應該積極予以考慮。

中印關係具有戰略意義和全局影響。中印關係的走向對雙邊關係的改善，對各自的南亞外交，對大國關係的博弈以及國際舞台的合作極其重要。我們真誠希望兩國從戰略性的高度，以前瞻性的視角減少突發性摩擦，避免零和局面。真誠希望雙方儘力減少戰略誤判，減少安全疑慮，減少邊界摩擦，努力修復受到嚴重損傷的關係，使之儘快重返健康穩定發展的軌道。

Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meet during the BRICS Summit in Xiamen, southeastern China’s Fujian Province. (AFP)

Fears of war between China and India subsided on 28th August as Indian troops pulled back from Chinese territory in the Donglang area after a 10-week intrusion.The withdrawal was verified by Chinese personnel and the Chinese Foreign Ministry that day.Most observers concluded that the governments and public in both countries seemed fairly satisfied about the resolution of the standoff, although some people are still arguing about which country won the confrontation.In fact, there is no clear winner in diplomatic negotiations. The fact that the Indian intruders returned to their side of the border means China's claim was largely recognized. Meanwhile, China's flexibility on the matter helped New Delhi save face. This practice can serve as an example for neighboring countries in handling their complicated bilateral relations.

During the Donglang standoff, tensions rose as both sides deployed more troops to the border regions and even carried out large-scale live fire maneuvers in adjacent areas. The media in both countries kept reporting the confrontation as the top story, with some even threatening war, escalating the situation and stirring up extreme nationalism amongst the public. The governments of both countries need to give serious thought to eliminating the possibility of a renewal of border clashes, patching up frayed bilateral ties, and leading public sentiment back to rationality.

Both countries should reflect on how well they prevented strategic misjudgment. Their leaders should conduct high-level dialogues to reduce strategic hostility and misgivings. Only by ensuring that they do not threaten each other can they establish mutual trust. Despite border disputes, disagreements over the Dalai Lama, and geographical political conflicts, China and India should not be enemies. Their geographical proximity makes it imperative to maintain a good bilateral relationship.The two countries need to acknowledge their disputes, but they should not lose sight of the fact that their common interests far outweigh their differences. China is striving for national rejuvenation through peaceful development, while India is also striving for rapid growth to narrow the gap between itself and other big powers. Neither of the two can afford long-term mutual hostility. They should try to be good neighbors.

Secondly, they should strive to establish a closer partnership for development. China is stepping up the transition of its economic growth model to achieve a higher growth rate on the basis of efficient and environment-friendly development, to raise its peoples' living standards. Narendra Modi's administration has set the goal of building a “New India,” accelerating economic growth by improving infrastructure. There is huge potential for Sino- Indian cooperation. China boasts experience and technology in infrastructure construction and has abundant capital for overseas investment while India, with a population of 1.3 billion, is an enormous market, presenting an opportunity for win-win economic and commercial cooperation.

Thirdly, both countries should strengthen guidance for the media. During the Donglang incident, the media of both countries published many opinions that went to extremes, some even breaking the diplomatic bottom line. These irresponsible remarks spread fast, stirring up nationalism and extreme populism and eroding the trust between the Chinese and the Indian people.

Lastly, the two countries should encourage more exchanges. The present people-to-people exchanges are inadequate to combat misunderstandings. Insufficient knowledge of the other side's history, culture, ethnic psychology and strategic concepts easily leads to prejudice, which often triggers public agitation during a diplomatic or military crisis. Such public sentiment constrains their governments. A communication mechanism between the two countries' academic institutions or a quasi-governmental exchange mechanism should be considered.

The Sino-Indian relationship is of global importance. I hope the two countries will avoid strategic misjudgment, reduce mutual suspicion, and ease border tensions so their relationship will return to the track of healthy and stable development.