There is the saying that unpredictability is the ultimate charm, which is one way of looking at the outgoing 2016. Several major developments closely related to China have taken the Chinese public and official media by surprise this year, each bringing a bit of drama that takes some adapting to for the rule-abiding Chinese.
Nothing was more dramatic than Philippines-China policies. Chinese aversion to Benigno Aquino III went to the extreme in the last days of his presidency thanks to his provocation over the South China Sea. Things took an amazing, drastic turn after Rodrigo Duterte took over. His sudden China visit and meeting with China's highest leader maneuvered an instant thaw in once deep-frozen ties. Philippine bananas and other fruits reappeared on Chinese store shelves in enormous quantities.
Similarly dramatic was the China-ROK relationship. A “ROK craze” swept China after Chinese President Xi Jinping visited the neighboring country in an unusual break from past practice. Korean cuisine, cosmetics, daily necessities, movies and TV plays found enthusiastic fans in Chinese youngsters. Bilateral relations showed unprecedented warmth in 2015 after ROK President Park Geun-hye, disregarding outside pressures, presented herself at the military parade in Beijing commemorating the 70th anniversary of China's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War. Then relations nosedived in 2016, because of Seoul's decision to deploy THAAD.
What has taken some nationalistic Chinese scholars, media and public aback, however, are US president-elect Donald Trump's recent remarks regarding China. This is amazing because previously these people had demonstrated no good feelings for Hillary Clinton, the Democratic presidential candidate. They believed Clinton was the initiator of the US pivot to the Asia-Pacific as well as one of the perpetrators seeking to contain China and its endeavors to expand international influences. Perhaps following the principle that the enemy's enemies are friends, these Chinese have been in favor of Trump, Clinton's rival. Yet the bubble burst before long. In the policy plan for his first 100 days in office Trump released, he obviously sees China as the US' foremost rival. Meanwhile, he has touched China's bottom line on the Taiwan issue from a businessman's perspective. Such an approach has considerably embarrassed Chinese media people who had cherished unrealistic hopes regarding the upcoming Trump presidency.
Such unexpected changes in China's relations with the Philippines, the ROK, and the US looked like political abnormalities resulting from changes in personnel and affairs of state. But all of these drastic, abrupt changes were related to the core concerns about Chinese foreign policies. Behind the China-Philippines dispute is the duplicity of the China policies of a certain major power and a few ASEAN countries. Behind the China-ROK row is the reality that Northeast Asia de-nuclearization has bogged down in serious crisis. And isn't the shift in global political and economic patterns behind the China-US frictions?
This complex context has led pessimists to believe that a new Cold War is in the making, that arms races between the US, China and Russia may resume, and that the potential fir war lurks in those unpredictable contradictions and conflicts.
The outgoing year will leave plenty of unpredictable factors to 2017, along with the corresponding charm. Human brains won't stop thinking in the face of the plethora of questions. From such a perspective, unpredictability means ceaseless pursuit of peace, prosperity, justice and friendship — which is why we have every reason to greet 2017 optimistically.
