當前，全球經濟正在艱難復蘇。IMF預計2023年世界經濟增長3.0%，2024年下降至2.9%，其中一個重要理由是中國經濟增速將從今年的5.2%降至明年的4.2%。中國經濟1個百分點的下降通常會壓低世界經濟增速0.3個百分點，而IMF預測明年世界經濟增速僅降低0.1個百分點，說明排除中國影響的世界經濟增長動力是增強的。

近期IMF和WTO都預測明年世界貿易增速將恢復至3%以上，也佐證了這一點。這意味着，如果明年中國經濟增速不是急劇下降，而是緩慢降至4.8%左右，那麼，明年世界經濟增速將高於今年，達到3.1%，但相對於疫情前20年世界經濟平均3.8%的增速，這依然是一個較低水平。

動蕩歲月，人心思穩。短期看，世界經濟低迷將持續。但是，全球供應鏈修復、通脹壓力減緩已現端倪，新一輪科技革命和產業革命正在孕育。和平、發展、合作是大家的共同利益，因此，大國博弈將趨於理性，中美戰略競爭可能會進入穩定有序的軌道。政治正確讓位於務實合作，經貿合作在國際關係中的壓艙石地位也將逐漸恢復。

需要指出的是，IMF對中國經濟的預測與實際情況不符。從今年前三季度數據來看，中國經濟總體呈現恢復向好，尤其是三季度回升態勢更趨明顯，雖然經濟恢復基礎仍然較弱。

前三季度，中國GDP按不變價格計算同比增長5.2%，其中一季度增長4.5%，二季度增長6.3%，三季度增長4.9%。之所以波動性較大，是因為去年基數波動較大。從環比看，中國經濟正逐季平穩恢復，三季度GDP環比增長1.3%，折算年增長率就是5.2%。總體看，促進中國經濟走穩走好的積極因素正在增多。

首先，總需求正在恢復，但也存在結構性問題。消費需求在中國經濟增長中發揮了基礎性作用，今年1-9月份社會消費品零售總額同比增長6.8%，全國網上零售額同比增長11.6%，其中實物商品網上零售額90435億元，增長8.9%，占社會消費品零售總額的比重為26.4%。在實物商品網上零售額中，吃、穿、用類商品分別增長10.4%、9.6%、8.5%。1-9月份，中國國內商品房銷售面積下降7.5%，商品房銷售額下降4.6%。

另一方面，投資需求還比較弱。1-9月全國固定資產投資同比增長3.1%，其中製造業投資增長6.2%，比1-8月增加0.3個百分點。但1-9月民間投資下降0.6%，比1-8月收窄0.1個百分點。房地產市場調整仍未結束，1-9月全國房地產開發投資同比下降9.1%，仍是拖累經濟增長的負面因素。

外貿出現結構性變化。按美元計，1-9月全國進出口總額同比下降7.2%，出口下降5.7%，貿易順差6304億美元。9月份，按美元計，全國進出口總額同比下降6.2%，降幅收窄，環比則增長4.9%。今年以來，中國來自美國、歐洲和日本的訂單有所下降，但與“一帶一路”和發展中國家的貿易上升。

其次，供給能力恢復加快。服務業率先復蘇，今年前三季度服務業增加值同比增長6.0%。其中，住宿和餐飲業、信息傳輸軟件和信息技術服務業、租賃和商務服務業、交通運輸倉儲和郵政業、金融業增加值分別增長14.4%、12.1%、9.5%、7.5%、7.0%。9月份，服務業生產指數同比增長6.9%，比上月加快0.1個百分點，增速連續2個月回升。

工業生產情況也不錯。9月份，規模以上工業增加值同比實際增長4.5%。從環比看，9月份，規模以上工業增加值比上月增長0.36%。1-9月份，規模以上工業增加值同比增長4.0%。9月份製造業PMI為50.2%，比上月上升0.5個百分點，重返擴張區間。

經濟恢復還體現在物價止跌企穩、退縮隱憂減少上。9月份，全國居民消費價格（CPI）同比持平，環比上漲0.2%，已連續3個月保持正增長。9月份，生產者價格指數（PPI）同比下降2.5%，比6月份低點-5.4%收窄2.9個百分點，PPI環比則上漲0.4%，連續2個月保持正增長。

總體來看，今年前三季度中國主要經濟指標出現止跌回升態勢。下一步，宏觀經濟政策仍要堅持“穩中求進”的總基調，積極的財政政策要“加力提效”；要繼續完善減稅降費措施，突出對中小微企業、個體工商戶以及特困行業的支持；要加大財政資金統籌力度，優化政策組合工具，集中財力辦大事，在打基礎、利長遠、補短板、調結構上加大投資，保障重點投資項目資金到位。

穩健的貨幣政策要“精準發力”。在總量上，綜合運用多種貨幣政策工具，保證貨幣供應量和社會融資規模的增速與名義經濟增速基本匹配。要疏通傳導機制，加強支持實體經濟力度。在價格上，引導融資成本不斷下降。

在結構上，加大對普惠小微、製造業、綠色發展、科技創新、基礎設施建設等重點領域、薄弱環節的政策支持，同時用足對普惠小微貸款支持工具、保交樓貸款支持計劃和租賃住房貸款支持計劃等。

最後，關於房地產問題。疫情前，房地產曾在中國經濟中發揮重大作用，體現在房地產投資在全國固定資產投資中佔比約1/3，居民購房支出在居民消費支出中佔比約1/3，房地產相關產業對GDP增長貢獻約佔1/3，房地產業創造了全國約1/3的就業機會。

但現在房地產整體下了一個台階，相比3年前房地產投資每年減少幾萬億元，房地產企業營業收入少了幾萬億元，地方政府賣地收入少了幾萬億元，居民購房支出少了幾萬億元。

以上“缺口”僅靠房地產自身是難以彌補的，必須另闢蹊徑。筆者建議中國每年在數字經濟領域增加幾萬億元投資，在健康養老產業增加幾萬億元投資，在低碳綠色領域增加幾萬億元投資，多管齊下彌補房地產結構調整造成的巨大缺口。若如此，未來中國經濟平穩發展大有希望。

The world economy is in the midst of a tenuous recovery. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund forecasts that the world economy would grow by 3 percent in 2023, before falling to 2.9 percent in 2024. One of the key drivers is that China's growth is expected to decline from 5.2 percent this year to 4.2 percent next year. Notably, every 1 percentage point decline in China's economy usually depresses world economic growth by 0.3 percentage points, but the IMF projects that next year's global growth rate will be lowered by only 0.1 percentage points, which indicates that growth momentum to offset the impact of China will gain traction.

This is also supported by the recent trade forecasts by both the IMF and the World Trade Organization that put world trade growth at over 3 percent next year. This means that as long as there is no steep contraction in China's economy next year but only a moderate slowdown to 4.8 percent, world economic growth will still outperform this year, reaching 3.1 percent, still low relative to the average growth rate of 3.8 percent in the 20 years before the pandemic.

Stability is in short supply in this age of change and turbulence. In the short run, the world economy may remain sluggish. That said, signs of a global supply chain restoration and an easing of inflation are emerging. A new round of the technological and industrial revolution is in the making. As peace, development and cooperation are the common interests of all, we expect great-power competition may become more rational, and the strategic competition between China and the United States may become more stable and orderly. Political correctness may give way to pragmatic cooperation, and economic and trade cooperation will again become the ballast underpinning international relations.

However, I believe that IMF's forecast for China is not exactly in line with reality. Judging from the first three quarters of data, China's economy has generally been recovering — on an upward trajectory — especially in the third quarter, when the rebound was palpable but the foundation was still weak.

In the first three quarters, China's GDP grew by 5.2 percent year-on-year in constant price terms. GDP grew by 4.5 percent in Q1, 6.3 percent in Q2 and 4.9 percent in Q3. The major swing is the result of a low base last year. On a quarterly basis, the Chinese economy has made a steady recovery. GDP growth in the third quarter was 1.3 percent, translating into an annual growth rate of 5.2 percent. Overall, positive factors are building for a stable and steady recovery.

First, aggregate demand is improving, but there are structural challenges. Consumption plays a pivotal role in economic growth. In the January-September period, total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 6.8 percent year-on-year; online retail sales nationwide rose by 11.6 percent. Online retail sales of physical goods reached 9.04 trillion RMB, an increase of 8.9 percent, and accounted for 26.4 percent of total retail sales of consumer goods. Foodstuffs, clothing and consumption goods increased respectively by 10.4, 9.6 and 8.5 percent. In the first nine months, commercial property sold — as measured by floor area — fell by 7.5 percent and sales of commercial property dropped by 4.6 percent.

Demand for investment is still relatively sluggish. From January to September, fixed asset investment grew by 3.1 percent year-on-year. However, manufacturing investment grew by 6.2 percent, outperforming January-August growth by 0.3 percentage points. Private investment fell by 0.6 percent in the January-September period, narrowing by 0.1 percentage point compared with the January-August figures. But the real estate market adjustment is not over. In the first nine months, investment in real estate dropped by 9.1 percent year-on-year, weighing heavily on economic growth.

Foreign trade saw structural changes. In dollar terms, total imports and exports fell by 7.2 percent year-on-year from January to September, while total exports fell by 5.7 percent resulting in a trade surplus of $630.4 billion U.S. dollars. In September, total imports and exports fell by 6.2 percent year-on-year in dollar terms but increased by 4.9 percent on a monthly basis), further narrowing the decline. So far this year, China's orders from the United States, Europe and Japan have declined, but trade with countries and regions participating in the Belt and Road Initiative has expanded. Developing countries also saw expansion.

Second, supply chains are improving steadily. The service sector took the lead in the recovery: In the first three quarters, the value added in the service sector grew by 6 percent year-on-year. Value-added grew in accommodations and catering (14.4 percent), information software and information tech services (12.1 percent), leasing and business services (9.5 percent), transportation and storage (7.5 percent) and postal and financial services (7.0 percent. In September, the production index of the service industry grew by 6.9 percent year-on-year, 0.1 percentage point higher than the previous month, and the growth rate has been picking up for the second consecutive month.

Industrial production was also in good shape. In September, the value added of industry above designated size grew by 4.5 percent in real terms year-on-year. On a monthly basis, the value added in above-scale industry increased by 0.36 percentage points in September. From January to September, the value added in above-scale industry increased by 4 percent year-on-year. In September, the PMI of the manufacturing industry was 50.2 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over the previous month, marking a return to expansionary territory.

The economic recovery is also reflected in the stabalization of prices and abating recessionary concerns. CPI remained essentially flat year-on-year in September, rising by 0.2 percent over the previous month and maintaining positive growth for the third consecutive month. PPI declined by 2.5 percent year-on-year in September, narrowing by 2.9 percentage points from -5.4 percent in June, and rising by 0.4 percent in September, marking positive growth for the second consecutive month.

Overall, the main economic indicators for the first three quarters of the year have been on a rebound trajectory. Going forward, macro policy should continue to seek progress while maintaining stability. This proactive fiscal policy should be implemented with enhanced intensity and effectiveness, and the government should continue to improve its tax- and fee-reduction measures, pivoting support for small and medium-sized enterprises, individual entrepreneurs and industries going through hardship. Also, financial resources and policy tools could be better coordinated to ensure funding where it is needed, especially where key investment projects are in place.

Prudent monetary policy should remain targeted. At the aggregate level, a variety of monetary policy tools have been comprehensively applied to ensure that the growth of the money supply and the scale of social financing basically match nominal economic growth. Efforts should be made to improve the transmission mechanism to better shore up the real economy. Financing costs should be steered down incrementally.

In terms of structure, more policy support should be in place for key areas and weak links, such as inclusive financing for small and micro enterprises and support for manufacturing, green development, innovation and infrastructure. It is important to ensure financing for the completion of pre-sold housing projects and for housing rent loans.

Last comes the real estate sector. In the pre-pandemic era, real estate was at the forefront of driving China's economy. Real estate investment accounted for about one-third of the country's fixed-asset investment, and household spending on home purchases accounted for about one-third of total consumption expenditures. Real estate-related industries contributed one-third to China's GDP growth, as well as one-third of national job opportunities.

But now real estate has shrunk. Compared with three years ago, real estate investment has decreased by trillions, dragging down the incomes of real estate enterprises, along with land transaction revenues of local governments and household spending on home purchases.

An alternative path must be pursued. I believe a digital economy-heavy approach is the answer. Investment should be ramped up by trillions. The same goes for the healthcare and elderly care industry and green and low-carbon development, among others. A multi-pronged approach will tide the economy over and cover the void left by real estate structural adjustments. It will offer a viable pathway leading China's economy to a promising future.