當前，國際貨幣體系呈現強勢美元周期與“去美元化”浪潮並存的顯著特徵。近年來，美國濫用美元“過度特權”，周期性收割世界財富，頻繁舉起金融制裁大棒，不僅加劇了世界經濟風險，也嚴重侵蝕了自身的國際信譽。儘管美元霸權依然強勢，但根基正在動搖。

美元霸權的第一個體現：美元周期性收割全世界

美元作為全球貨幣，在全球支付結算、外匯交易、儲備資產等方面佔據絕對統治性地位，美聯儲成為全球的中央銀行。美聯儲貨幣政策不僅主導了全球的貨幣政策周期，其利率的升降也對全球美元流動性產生了巨大的“潮汐效應”和“虹吸效應”。今年以來美元“漲勢如虹”，美元指數突破110大關，創下20年新高。而包括歐元、日元、韓元等非美主要貨幣則“一瀉千里”。據國際清算銀行（BIS）統計，美元對包括發達國家和新興國家在內的多種貨幣名義有效匯率幾乎處於1994年數據公布以來的最高水平。美元周期性波動導致全球匯率市場的劇烈波動，進而造成各國宏觀經濟和金融體系的不穩定，甚至導致國際金融危機頻發，而美國則藉此收割他國財富。美元一家獨大以及“過度特權”已成為現行國際貨幣體系最大的系統風險。

美元霸權的第二個體現：濫用金融制裁大棒

回溯歷史，強勢美元周期往往與美元化同時出現。然而與以往不同，本輪強勢美元周期中並未出現“美元化”，而是“去美元化”。美國濫用金融制裁、推行極限施壓的種種行為，嚴重損害美元國際信用，正成為推動“去美元化”的始作俑者。根據BIS數據，目前美元占國際支付的40.4%、外匯交易的88.3%、國際債券票據的45.1%、SDR籃子的41.73%，以及全球外匯儲備的59.23%。全球美元儲備超過7萬億美元，短期內美元霸權地位依舊無法撼動。然而，現有國際貨幣體系的“裂痕”早已顯現，以加速脫鉤美元清算系統、拋售美國國債、增加黃金儲備、減少美元結算為特徵的“去美元化”浪潮不斷升級。

俄烏衝突及其導致的史無前例的金融制裁正成為“去美元化”浪潮的加速器。美國將金融“武器化”，不僅給國際貨幣金融體系和秩序的穩定性、可靠性蒙上陰影，也徹底改變了國際金融市場的運作邏輯。國際金融市場不再遵循中立原則，主權國家擁有的財產不再不可侵犯。環球同業銀行金融電訊協會（SWIFT）結算系統等長期由美國掌控的金融系統已成為其推行單邊主義的工具，美元不再是“無風險資產”，而正在變成“高風險”的國際結算工具。長期看，其對美元的國際公信力正在造成嚴重損害。

全球“去美元化”趨勢正加速推進

美元債務貨幣化，以及金融制裁淪為博弈工具，導致美元霸權根基失穩。從全球範圍內看，除日本、中國、俄羅斯之外，越來越多的海外債權國加速拋售美債。全球美債儲備持續下滑，至今年6月已跌至兩年來最低水平。10月，日本持有美債規模降至1.12萬億美元左右，創下三年來新低。中國美債持倉為9336億美元，相比2013年11月的1.32萬億美元，累計凈拋售比例達30%。值得關注的是，沙特自2020年以來，已累計拋售高達620億美元的美債，累計拋售美債比例達35%。特別是近一時期以來，沙特加大了拋售美債力度，這主要是對前期美國對沙特實施“NOPEC法案”的回擊。沙特還聲稱其石油交易將棄用美元以阻止 “NOPEC法案”，石油美元體系的裂隙日益加深。

與此同時，國際替代性貿易結算體系也從構想變為現實。近年來，為繞開被美國主導的全球金融支付結算系統，消除政治經濟風險，越來越多的經濟體正在或已經開發了獨立支付系統。2019年，德、法、英三國宣布建立歐盟對伊朗的貿易結算支持機制，旨在促進非美元和非SWIFT交易，繞過美國制裁，INSTEX（支持貿易往來工具）機制應運而生。印度也已建立了用於國際貿易的印度盧比結算機制，以減少對美元的依賴。

國際儲備貨幣格局“去美元化”進程將進一步加快。今年以來，以色列央行開始推動外匯儲備多元化，並計劃將美元在其外匯儲備中的比例由66.5%降至61%。巴西央行發佈的國際儲備管理報告顯示，2021年，美元在巴西外匯儲備中的佔比，較2020年下降5.69個百分點至80.34%，為2014年以來的最低水平。而人民幣在巴西外匯儲備中的份額從上2020年的1.21%升至2021年的4.99%，為2019年人民幣進入其貨幣籃子以來的最高水平，成為其第三大外匯資產。而首屆中國－海灣阿拉伯國家合作委員會峰會上，雙方也達成了開展油氣貿易人民幣結算的戰略共識。凡此種種，都顯示出“去美元化”進程無論是深度還是廣度上都在加速展開。

“一超多強”而非“一超獨大”是改革國際貨幣體系的方向。隨着新興經濟體主權貨幣國際化進程推進，多極化國際貨幣體系在一定程度上能夠制約美元的“過度特權”。同時，國際替代性貿易結算體系的建立，也在世界各極力量對比格局中壯大了抗衡美元霸權的力量，為促進國際貨幣體系朝着多極化方向均衡發展鋪平了道路。

The international monetary system is going through a strong U.S. dollar cycle, and a pivot away from the currency — or de-dollarization. In recent years, the U.S. administration has abused the currency's excessive privileges, reaped massive benefits from dollar supremacy and frequently resorted to financial sanctions, which not only exacerbated global economic risks but also seriously eroded its international credibility. Although the dollar maintains a strong grip on its hegemony, its foundations have been shaken.

• The first manifestation of dollar hegemony is siphoning off global liquidity in every dollar cycle.

The dollar reigned supreme as the global currency used in most payment settlements, foreign exchange transactions and reserve assets, and the U.S. Federal Reserve has literally become the world's central bank. The Fed's monetary policy steers the global monetary policy cycle, and the fluctuation of interest rates generates tidal effect and siphon effects on global dollar liquidity. This year, the dollar has been on a rising trajectory, with the dollar index breaking the 110 mark, a new 20-year high. Meanwhile, currencies such as the euro, the yen, the Korean won and other major non-U.S. currencies are thrown off a cliff.The Bank for International Settlements calculated that the nominal effective exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against a wide range of currencies, including developed and emerging countries, was at its highest level since 1994, when the data were first released. The cyclical fluctuations of the dollar have led to drastic swings in global exchange rate markets. That, in turn, has unsettled the macroeconomic and financial systems of countries and even led to frequent financial crises. The U.S. stands to benefit massively as capital flows to the U.S. market, with the dollar being used to harvest the wealth of other countries. The dominance of the U.S. dollar and its excessive privileges have become the greatest systemic risk of the current international monetary system.

• The second manifestation of dollar hegemony is the abuse of financial sanctions.

The history of the dollar cycle suggests that strong cycles often coincided with dollarization. However, in a departure from the past, the current strong dollar cycle doesn't come in tandem with dollarization but rather de-dollarization. The excessive use of financial sanctions and extreme pressure employed by the United States has severely undermined the credibility of the dollar, and is the root cause of de-dollarization. According to BIS data, the dollar currently accounts for 40.4 percent of international payments, 88.3 percent of foreign exchange transactions, 45.1 percent of international bond notes, 41.73 percent of the SDR basket and 59.23 percent of global foreign exchange reserves, topping $7 trillion.However, the fault lines in the existing international monetary system have long been visible, and the trend of de-dollarization has accelerated, characterized by more decoupling from the U.S. dollar clearing system, U.S. treasury bond sell-offs, overweight gold reserves and shrinking settlements in dollars.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict and the unprecedented financial sanctions in its wake are becoming an accelerator of de-dollarization. The weaponization of finance has not only cast a shadow over the stability and reliability of the international monetary and financial system and order but has also upended the logic of the functioning of international financial markets, which no longer observe the principle of neutrality. The property owned by sovereign states is no longer inviolable. The financial system long controlled by the United States, such as SWIFT, has become a tool for unilateralism, rendering the U.S. dollar no longer a risk-free asset. It is becoming a high-risk settlement instrument. In the long run, this portends serious damage to the credibility of the U.S. dollar.

• The global trend of de-dollarization is accelerating.

With the monetization of dollar-denominated debt and the use of financial sanctions as an instrument, the foundation of dollar hegemony has been destabilized. From a global perspective, more overseas creditors — in addition to Japan, China and Russia — are increasingly divesting their U.S. debts. In October, Japan's holdings of U.S. debt fell to around $1.12 trillion, a three-year low. China's U.S. debt holdings totaled $933.6 billion, compared with $1.32 trillion in November 2013, representing a cumulative net sell-off of 30 percent.It is noteworthy that Saudi Arabia has sold a cumulative $62 billion of U.S. debt since 2020, a cumulative sell-off of 35 percent. Saudi has increased its sales of U.S. debt recently, mainly as a response to the implementation of the NOPEC Act by the U.S. against Saudi Arabia. Saudi has also claimed it has abandoned the use of the U.S. dollar in oil transactions to stop the NOPEC Act. The rifts in the system are deepening.

At the same time, an alternative global trade settlement system has moved from concept to reality. In recent years, a growing number of economies have been developing or have developed independent payment systems to bypass the global financial payment and settlement system dominated by the U.S. In 2019, Germany, France and the UK announced the creation of an EU trade settlement support mechanism for Iran. It was designed to facilitate non-dollar and non-SWIFT transactions and bypass U.S. sanctions, and the Instex (Instrument to Support Trade Transactions) mechanism was created. India has also established an Indian rupee settlement mechanism for international trade to reduce its reliance on the U.S. dollar.

The process of de-dollarization in the international reserve currency system will further pick up speed. This year, the Bank of Israel began diversifying foreign exchange reserves and is set to reduce the proportion of the U.S. dollar from 66.5 percent to 61 percent.According to Brazil's central bank report on international reserve management, in 2021 the U.S. dollar fell in proportion in Brazil's foreign exchange reserves by 5.69 percentage points from the 2020 level to 80.34 percent, the lowest level since 2014. The share of Chinese yuan in Brazil's foreign exchange reserves, on the other hand, rose from 1.21 percent in 2020 to 4.99 percent in 2021, the highest level since the yuan was incorporated into its currency basket in 2019 and becoming its third-largest foreign exchange asset.

The first China-Gulf Arab States Cooperation Council summit also reached a strategic consensus to develop settlement in yuan for oil and gas trade. All of these show that the process of de-dollarization is accelerating in both depth and breadth.The international monetary system will evolve into a system characterized by one superpower and multiple major players, as opposed to a single hegemony. As the internationalization of sovereign currencies in emerging economies advances, a multipolar international monetary system can to some extent limit the excessive privileges of the U.S. dollar. At the same time, the establishment of an alternative trade settlement system responds to the need to strengthen the counterweight to the hegemony of the dollar in a polarized world, paving the way for the balanced development of multi-polarization in the international monetary system.