不出所料，中國今年第一季度GDP同比增幅達到驚人的18.3%。這是基於2020年第一季度的低基數，當時由於新冠疫情暴發，中國GDP下降了6.8%，為59年以來的最大降幅。若與疫情前的2019年第一季度相比，今年第一季度增長10.3%，相當於年均增長5.0%，比疫情前仍然低大約1個百分點。

驅動力和變化

第一、第二產業總體來說已經恢復正常增長，平均增長年率為2.3%和6.0%，2019年是增長3.1%和5.7%。另一方面，第三產業去年和今年的增長率僅為4.7%，而2019年則增長6.9%。

高科技產業是經濟的主要引擎，新能源汽車、工業機械人、微型計算機、集成電路的同比增幅超過60%，過去兩年平均增速達到19%。貨物進出口為另一個引擎，進出口總額超過1.3萬億美元，今年第一季度比去年同期增長38.6%，比2019年第一季度增長20.9%。過去兩年進出口平均增長率高達10.0%，是2019年全年增長率（3.4%）的近3倍。這意味着貿易增速已經高於趨勢線，其中出口的表現好於進口。今年第一季度，出口增長49.0%，進口增長28.0%，凈出口對GDP增長起到了良好的推動作用。

在今年剩下的時間裡，經濟的主要驅動力將發生變化，第三產業將獲得增長勢頭，凈出口漲勢則將趨於平穩。最近的指標顯示，第三產業出現遲到的反彈，3月份服務業商務活動指數為55.2%，比2月份提高4.4個百分點。

住宿、餐飲和租賃已回歸繁榮區間，鐵路、航空運輸、金融、互聯網服務的商務活動指數也都達60%以上。隨着工業生產快速擴張，與工業相關的服務業將更快增長。看來，第三產業在第二季度會有更高的增長率，並在今年下半年進一步加速。第三產業佔GDP的半壁江山，其加速發展將為整體經濟提供新的決定性驅動力。

然而，隨着世界許多地區的快速復蘇減少了對中國商品的需求，凈出口在一定程度上將失去增長動力。

在製造業投資增長的進一步支撐下，工業生產將繼續保持目前的強勁勢頭。總體而言，2021年中國的GDP增長會在9%左右，略高於IMF最新估計的8.4%，不過2019年至2021年的平均增長率只有5.5%，仍比疫情之前的年份要低。

推動全球復蘇

與去年不同，今年世界經濟的增長情況將發生重大變化，中國將不再是唯一實現增長的主要經濟體。復蘇將是廣泛的，IMF在4月6日發佈的最新《世界經濟展望》中預計，經過2020年下滑3.3%之後，全球GDP將增長6.0%。發達經濟體將增長5.1%，其中美國一馬當先，將增長6.4%。新興市場和發展中經濟體將增長6.7%，亞洲發展中經濟體將增長8.6%。

中國也將不再是增長最快的主要經濟體，印度的增速預計為12.5%。去年中國GDP已經佔到全球GDP的17%，今年中國GDP若增長8.4%，將為全球經濟增長貢獻1.4個百分點。如果美國2021年GDP增長率達到6.4%，那麼它將貢獻1.6個百分點。把2020年和2021年合起來的話，世界經濟將增長2.5%，其中中國將貢獻1.7個百分點，是最大的貢獻者。

貿易的新動力

自相矛盾的是，被普遍認為因貿易戰而陷入低迷的中美貿易，在今年第一季度成為了亮點，同比增幅達到73.1%。其中，中國對美出口增長74.7%，自美進口增長69.2%，與2018年第一季度貿易戰前的高水平相比，出口和進口分別增長了19.3%和11.7%。換句話說，事實上，麻煩不斷的中美貿易為中國今年第一季度GDP的增長做出了積極貢獻。如果這一趨勢繼續下去，除非出現任何重大意外挫折，2021年中美雙邊貿易額將達到歷史最高水平，超過2018年創下的6335.2億美元（中國海關數據）。

3月份，美國對華出口增長更快，達到172.9億美元，同比增長了74.8%，超過中國對美出口的增長53.3%。如果美國的出口在今年剩餘時間裡保持3月份的增長勢頭，那麼2021年美國對華出口將歷史上首次突破2000億美元大關，並超過中美“第一階段”協議的首年目標。

別忘了，美國對中國商品徵收的額外關稅和中國對美國商品徵收的反制關稅仍然存在。最新發展狀況說明，隨着美國經濟強勁復蘇，中國產品是符合其市場需求的。美國產品在中國市場也有良好的發展前景，因為中國經濟也在不斷增長。今年第一季度，中國對全球農產品的進口同比增長33.8%，汽車進口增長30.2%，機床進口增長29.2%，飛機進口增長100%，機械和電子產品進口增長30.9%，高科技產品進口增長31.0%，這其中美國出口商佔有很大的份額。

中國經濟的增強也意味着對全球投資者的吸引力越來越大。2020年，中國成為全球唯一跨境直接投資增長的目的地。2021年第一季度，流入中國的外國直接投資大幅增長，達到448.6億美元（非金融類），比低迷的2020年第一季度增長43.8%，甚至比疫情前的2019年第一季度高24.8%。同樣，對美國投資者來說這是大好機會，而且不會有損失。

It is unsurprising that Chinese GDP rose by an astonishing 18.3 percent year-on-year during Q1. It was on a very low base of Q1 2020, when its GDP fell by 6.8 percent because of the coronavirus outbreak, the steepest drop of the past 59 years. Compared with the pre-pandemic period of Q1 2019, it was up 10.3 percent, or a 5.0 percent average annual rate, still roughly 1 percentage point lower than the years before COVID-19.

Drivers and changes

The primary and secondary sectors are back to normal growth in general. The average annual growth rates during this period were 2.3 percent and 6.0 percent respectively. In 2019, the primary sector grew by 3.1 percent and the secondary sector by 5.7 percent. The tertiary sector, on the other hand, grew by only 4.7 percent annually over the past two years, compared with 6.9 percent growth in 2019.

The high-tech industry served as the prime engine for the economy. New-energy vehicles, industrial robots, microcomputers and integrated circuits shot up more than 60 percent year-on-year and managed 19 percent annual growth over the past two years. The import and export of goods served as another engine. Total import and export volume exceeded $1.3 trillion, 38.6 percent higher than a year ago, and was 20.9 percent higher than Q1 2019.The average annual growth rate for the past two years was as high as 10.0 percent, nearly three times the rate of the whole year of 2019 (3.4 percent). It means that trade has already enjoyed above-trend growth. Exports performed better than imports. During Q1 this year, exports grew by 49.0 percent and imports by 28.0 percent, making net exports a good driver for GDP growth.

There will be changes in the main drivers for the rest of the year. The tertiary sector will gain momentum while net exports will level off. Recent indicators have shown a late rebound in the tertiary sector. The overall business index for the service sector stood at 55.2 percent in March, 4.4 percentage points higher than in February.

Accommodations, catering and leasing have seen a return to the boom zone. Rail and air transportation, and financial and internet services too, have business activity indices above 60 percent. With the fast expansion of industry production, industry-related services will grow faster. It looks likely that the tertiary sector will have a higher growth rate during Q2, to be further accelerated during the second half of this year. As the tertiary sector accounts for over half of total GDP, its acceleration will become a new, decisive driver for the whole economy.

Net exports, however, will lose steam somewhat as a result of a faster recovery in many parts of the world, reducing demand for Chinese goods.

Industrial production will continue its current strength, supported further by a rise in manufacturing investment. On balance, China's GDP growth for 2021 will be around 9 percent, slightly higher than the latest IMF estimate of 8.4 percent, leaving the average annual growth rate during the 2019-21 period at 5.5 percent, still lower than the pre-pandemic years.

Boosting world recovery

Unlike last year, this year will see significant change in the world's economic growth scenario. China will no longer be the only leading economy that had growth. The recovery will be broadly based. The latest IMF World Economic Outlook released on April 6 estimated that global GDP to grow by 6.0 percent, after a 3.3 percent dip in 2020. Developed economies will grow by 5.1 percent, with the U.S. leading the way at 6.4 percent. Emerging markets and developing economies will grow at 6.7 percent, with developing Asia set to grow by 8.6 percent.

China will no longer be the fastest growing leading economy either, with India expected to grow by 12.5 percent. China accounted for 17 percent of total global GDP last year. With 8.4 percent GDP growth, it will contribute 1.4 percentage points to world growth. The United States, if it hits 6.4 GDP growth for 2021, will contribute 1.6 percentage points. If we take 2020 and 2021 together, the world will grow by 2.5 percent, with 1.7 percentage points contributed by China, with China still the leading contributor.

New impetus for trade

Paradoxically, China-U.S. trade, which is generally perceived as depressed as a result of the trade war, became a bright spot during Q1 this year when it shot up by 73.1 percent year-on-year. Chinese exports to the U.S. were up by 74.7 percent and imports from the U.S. by 69.2 percent — 19.3 and 11.7 percent higher respectively over Q1 2018, the pre-trade war high. In other words, the much-troubled China-U.S. trade relations in fact contributed positively to China's GDP growth for Q1 this year. If this trend continues, barring any significant, unexpected setbacks, two-way trade volume in 2021 will hit a historical high, outstripping the previous record of $633.52 billion (China Customs data) set in 2018.

U.S. exports to China grew much faster in March, at $17.29 billion — 74.8 percent up year-on-year, exceeding the growth rate of Chinese exports to the U.S., which were at 53.3 percent. If U.S. exports keep up their tempo in March for the rest of the year, 2021 will see U.S. exports to China breaking the $200 billion barrier for the first time in history and exceeding the target of the China-U.S. phase-one agreement for the first year.

Don't forget that extra tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Chinese goods, and the Chinese counter-tariffs on U.S. goods are still there. The latest developments show that Chinese products suit the market needs in the U.S., with its economy in firm recovery. And U.S. products have good, growing prospects in the Chinese market as the economy there is also gaining strength. During Q1, Chinese imports of agricultural products worldwide increased by 33.8 percent year-on-year. Automobiles were up 30.2 percent, machine tools by 29.2 percent, aircraft by 100 percent, machinery and electronics by 30.9 percent and high-tech products by 31.0 percent — and the U.S. exporters have had a good share of it.

The strengthening of the Chinese economy also means growing attractiveness for global investors. In 2020, China was the only destination where world cross-border direct investment flows registered growth. During the first quarter of 2021, FDI inflows to China accelerated tremendously, hitting $ 44.86 billion (non-financial sector), a 43.8 percent rise over the depressed Q1 2020, but even 24.8 percent higher than Q1 2019 in the pre-pandemic period. Again, there are good opportunities for U.S. investors, and no chance to lose.