當前，全球保護主義盛行，全球90%的經濟體面臨增長放緩。貿易“裂痕”危及世界經濟，多邊自由化體系失去了前進的方向。而RCEP（區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定）作為應對亞太地區錯綜複雜的“意大利麵碗”效應的重大機制設計，是亞太區域內整合、推進區域經濟一體化的重要一步，勢必影響未來亞太經貿乃至全球經濟發展格局。

近期，除印度宣布退出談判外，經過28輪磋商和18次部長級會議，RCEP的15個成員國了結束全部20個章節文本談判和實質上所有的市場准入談判，並將致力於確保明年簽署協議。RCEP這個縱跨南北半球兩大洲、涵蓋約35億人口、GDP達23萬億美元、約佔全球32.2%經濟規模及29.1%的貿易和32.5%的投資的超大型自貿協定，經過七年長跑終於成形。

事實上，隨着WTO多邊貿易體制不振，FTA（自由貿易協定）日漸成為新一輪國際經貿規則制定的主導力量。根據WTO所屬 RTA Database統計，1948-1994年期間，全球向WTO 報備的RTA（區域貿易協定）有124個；而1995 年烏拉圭回合結束以來，向WTO 報備的RTA 數量已超過400個。截至2019年6月，總有效RTA數量達474個，其中FTA性質的257個。相互交叉、碎片化規則帶來的“意大利麵碗”效應在很大程度上影響了區域經濟一體化進程。

RCEP內部最初已經有5個FTA，如東盟-澳新FTA、中國-新加坡FTA、中國-澳大利亞FTA、日本-菲律賓FTA等，它們存在着相互疊加的優惠措施，原產地、投資開放、服務貿易等規則都不一樣，成為建立RCEP的一大障礙。但多年的努力，不斷使各項標準規則和優惠政策對接，為RCEP談判的達成奠定了基礎，降低了RCEP成員國之間的斡旋難度。而早期收穫更讓成員國享受到貿易投資便利化所帶來的福利，從而使各方對深化區域經濟一體化合作有更大的期待。

當前，在一些國家強調本國優先、貿易緊張局勢升級、國際多邊貿易體系受到逆全球化力量侵蝕的背景下，維護自由貿易體制，加強亞洲價值鏈整合，推進區域經濟一體化進程具有標誌性意義。本世紀以來，亞太內部的貿易依存度與一體化進程不斷上升。博鰲論壇發佈的《亞洲經濟一體化》數據顯示，亞洲經濟整體上對自身的依存度大幅提升，從2016年的50.74%上升至2017年的54.2%，為2004年以來最高。特別是，隨着中國市場規模的擴大以及改革開放力度的加大，區域各經濟體對中國的貿易依存度也在同步上升。

另一方面，內部貿易聯繫愈發緊密，貿易粘性增強。事實上，20世紀80年代中期以來，亞太區域內貿易的增長速度幾乎是世界貿易的兩倍，遠遠超過北美自由貿易區和歐盟域內貿易的增長速度。無論進口還是出口，區域內對外貿易額中的內部貿易佔比均呈明顯上升趨勢，達到60-65%左右，成為全球最具增長活力的價值鏈夥伴。因此，作為目前亞太地區規模最大、最重要的自由貿易協定一旦生效，通過實現原產地規則和相互認可等機制的簡化，以及貿易投資便利化的大幅提升，亞洲區域價值鏈也會變得更加緊密而穩固。

距離高質量自貿協定還有多遠？RCEP仍有非常大的進一步升級的空間。與近期已經達成的超大自貿協定，如CPTPP（全面與進步跨太平洋夥伴關係協定）、EPA（日本與歐盟的經濟合作協定）、USMCA（美-加-墨協議）等相比，RCEP更加強調遵循以WTO為核心的多邊貿易體制規則，側重發展中國家利益，注重“靈活性”和“高標準”之間的權衡。一方面，總體而言，RCEP的談判領域和議題仍以傳統議題為主，如規定關稅免除水平標準至少達到95%，比WTO各成員開放水平要高得多，但RCEP在開放程度上仍低於CPTPP。

而另一方面，隨着近年來對高標準國際貿易規則要求的提升，RCEP談判文本中加入了許多新興議題，目前涵蓋了貨品貿易、服務貿易、金融服務、電信服務、投資便利化、知識產權、電子商務、競爭政策、中小企業、政府採購、經濟和技術合作、爭端解決、原產地規則、關稅程序與貿易便利化等共18個領域。特別是在投資方面，RCEP啟動負面清單制度進行投資准入談判，體現了與高質量對標的積極努力，有利於促進區域內市場壁壘以及營商環境的大幅改善，有助於促進區域內要素高效便捷流動。

In the world today, protectionism runs rampant, the global economy is slowing down, trade frictions threaten the economy and the multilateral free trade system is at a crossroads. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP — a major mechanism designed to cope with the complicated “spaghetti bowl” phenomenon in the Asia-Pacific region — is an important step in promoting regional economic integration and will naturally have an impact on the economic development not only of the Asia-Pacific but of the world as whole.

After 28 rounds of consultations and 18 rounds of ministerial-level meetings, the 15 RCEP members have wrapped up negotiations in all 20 sections of the agreement text and have held substantial talks about market access. They also pledged to sign the deal next year. However, India has opted to pull out the negotiations. As a mega free trade agreement, RCEP affects countries in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, about 3.5 billion people and $23 trillion in GDP. It covers 32.2 percent of global GDP, 29.1 percent of trade worldwide and 32.5 percent of global investment, and it is set to be officially signed after seven years of talks.

With the weakening of the WTO-led multilateral trading system, free trade areas have become the forces that are leading the new round in the process of laying down international economic and trade rules. According to the WTO's RTA database, 124 regional trade agreements were filed with the WTO from 1948 to 1994. After the Uruguay round of talks in 1995, the number of RTAs soared to more than 400. As of the end of June this year, the number of RTAs in effect stood at 474, including 257 which are actually free trade areas in nature.The “spaghetti bowl” phenomenon, triggered by intertwined and fragmented rules among the RTAs, has greatly affected the regional economic integration process.

At the beginning, there were already five FTAs within the RCEP region, including ASEAN-Australian-New Zealand, China-Singapore, China-Australia and Japan-Philippines. Among those FTAs, there were overlapping preferential policies. Rules about place of origin, investment and service trade were also different.Differences in preferential policies make it difficult to integrate the FTAs and have also become a major obstacle in establishing RCEP. Following efforts made in past years, various standards, rules and preferential policies have been gradually integrated, laying a solid foundation for wrapping up negotiations. The early achievements gave all members higher expectations about deepening cooperation in trade and investment in the region.

Because some countries place their own interests above others, trade tensions have escalated and the international multilateral trading system is now threatened by anti-globalization forces. Defense of the free trade system, strengthening the integration of the Asian value chains and promoting regional economic integration, is of landmark significance.Since the beginning of this century, trade dependency and integration within the Asia-Pacific region have been growing. According to data from a Boao Forum for Asia report — Progress of Asian Economic Integration — the Asian economy's dependence on Asia had increased to 54.2 percent in 2017 from 50.74 percent in 2016, the highest level since 2004. With the expanding of the China market and the country's further reforms and opening-up, economies in the region are also becoming more dependent on trade with China.

On the other hand, trade links within the RCEP region have also strengthened. Since the mid-1980s, the growth rate of trade within the region has been double the global average, much faster than the growth rates of the North American Free Trade Agreement area or the European Union. In terms of both imports and exports, total foreign trade by economies within the region has risen remarkably, reaching 60 to 65 percent, thereby becoming the value chain partners with the most dynamic growth potential in the world.Consequently, once RCEP takes effect as the biggest and most important free trade agreement in the Asia-Pacific region, the Asian regional value chain will become more closely linked through simplification of the rules on place of origin, the reciprocal recognition mechanism and improvements in trade and investment facilitation.

How is close is the RCEP to the level of a high-quality free trade deal? There is still much room for it to upgrade and improve. Compared with recent big free trade agreements, such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Economic Partnership Agreement and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the RCEP puts more emphasis on multilateral trade systems with WTO rules at the core. It gives priority to the interests of developing nations and aims to strike a balance between flexibility and high standards.Generally speaking, talks and topics involving the RCEP have focused on traditional agendas. For instance, the partnership stipulates that tariff exemptions should reach at least 95 percent, much higher than the level promised by WTO members. However, in terms of openness, the RCEP still lags behind the CPTPP.

On the other hand, with the growing demand for improvement in the rules of high-standard international trade, many new topics were included in the text-based negotiations of RCEP, covering 18 new fields, such as commodity and service trading, financial services, telecom services, investment facilitation, intellectual property, e-commerce, competition policies, small and medium-sized enterprises, government procurement, economic and technological cooperation, dispute settlement, rules on places of origin, tariff procedures and trade facilitation.In the field of investment, in particular, the RCEP includes investment access negotiations based on the negative list mechanism, reflecting its effort to stay on par with high-standard FTAs. It will be conducive in removing regional market barriers and greatly improving business environments. And it will be constructive in promoting efficient free flows within the region.