當前，中國經濟面臨著新的“不可能三角”難題，即如何在全球外部環境充滿不確定性、防範系統性風險、保持宏觀經濟穩定並加快推進深層次改革之間把握新平衡，這是對宏觀政策提出的最大挑戰。

無疑，全球化進入到一個新周期。近日中共中央政治局會議罕見提到“外部環境發生明顯變化”。當前已經形成的共識是，中美摩擦發酵愈發清晰的指向外部壓力並非短期，採取激進的方式也勢必會造成中美關係的裂痕與衝突升級。在全球環境發生結構性和趨勢性變化，不斷升級的保護主義仍將嚴重威脅全球貿易復蘇進程，全球景氣已達繁榮頂點，中國重新啟動改革進程的大背景下，宏觀政策需要做出哪些適時調整？

7月份全球貿易爭端進入“實戰階段”。7月1日美國與歐盟、加拿大互設額外關稅，7月6日美國與中國互設額外關稅。7月10日美國貿易代表辦公室公布的商品清單按照HTS-8分類共6031種2000億美元商品，佔中國2017年全年2.26萬億美元出口額的8.8%。加上此前公布的500億美元商品，美國對中國宣布加征關稅的商品已經佔到中國全部出口的11%，對美出口的1/2。長期來看，未來無論是戰是和，是大戰還是小戰，都必須重視中美衝突與摩擦的長期性與複雜性。中美經貿問題本質是二戰之後國際秩序演變與全球系統性問題的一部分，要放到世界大變革的背景下去理解中美關係。

短期看，一系列外部環境衝擊已經有所顯現。2018年上半年，最終消費支出、資本形成總額與凈出口貿易對中國GDP增長貢獻分別為5.3%、2.1%、-0.7%。中美貿易摩擦及其引發的供應鏈斷裂、順差減少對經濟的影響要求建立宏觀政策的“風險對沖機制”。

宏觀政策調整並不意味着重返政策擴張和“加槓桿”的老路，而是應在內外部環境面臨不確定性挑戰時降低“去槓桿”的速度和力度。在財政金融政策協調配合上，財政貨幣分工更為明確。金融政策把住流動性總閥門，偏總量；財政政策更積極，擔負更多調結構責任，主要體現在收入端減稅、支出端提高效率。為支持地方金融機構滿足中小企業信貸需求，一些商業銀行也下調宏觀審慎監管框架中的結構性參數，初步約調低0.5個百分點。調低參數後，銀行宏觀審慎資本充足率要求將相應下降，這也顯示了貨幣當局加大了貨幣政策的微調力度。

中國財政部已經明確表態，不搞大水漫灌式的“強刺激”，而是更多聚焦於降低宏觀稅負和企業主體稅收負擔上，在有效保證在建項目融資需求的同時，避免新增隱性債務、嚴禁以PPP、政府投資基金、政府購買服務等名義變相舉債，同時防範系統性風險。根據財政部公布的數據，2016年，中國全部政府收入為26萬億元左右，其中稅收與稅外收入各佔50%左右。稅外收入包括各類費、政府性基金、社保繳費、國有資本經營利潤等。中國非稅收入占財政收入比重逐漸上升，2016年達到18.3%。相比之下，美國聯邦非稅收入在聯邦財政收入佔比較低，不足5%。中國現行企業所得稅率為25%，較美國降稅後的21%高出4個百分點。十八大以來，政府減稅降費措施累計為企業減負超過2.1萬億元。然而，面對中國財稅體制改革的長期性頑疾，降低稅負，改革調整複雜的稅負體系，降低名義稅率，加快要素市場化改革，調整利益分配機制依然有很大空間。

從中國2018年上半年經濟表現來看，近兩年來供給側結構性改革消化了部分宏觀產能過剩，提高了資本收益率。今年上半年，全國規模以上工業企業利潤同比增長17.2%，石油天然氣開採業、非金屬礦物製品業、化學原料和化學製品製造業等行業對全部規模以上工業企業利潤增長的貢獻率為67%。在化解系統性風險方面，地方政府債務置換化解了地方債務違約風險，房地產去庫存消除了房地產行業以及銀行業的貸款違約風險，使得中國經濟短期增長韌性增強。

提升經濟增長潛力不僅需要短期政策調整，更需要改革與開放。中國深化改革開放的趨勢不但不會逆轉，擴大開放政策的內涵和層次還會有新變化。2013年9月至2018年4月，國務院先後批覆成立12個自貿區，以制度開放引領市場開放。目前，2018年版《外商投資產業指導目錄》在2017年版基礎上繼續大幅放寬外資准入限制，推出一系列重大開放措施，准許包括農業、糧食收購、國家鐵路、電網、國際運輸、互聯網、金融、證券等22個領域對外資開放，負面清單長度由63條減至48條，相比2011年的117條降幅高達59%。特別是准入前國民待遇加負面清單的管理制度，是全球投資者高度關注的投資自由化最重要體現，也是中國近年來推出的擴大開放標誌性舉措，標誌中國加強同國際經貿規則對接，深化外商投資管理制度改革。除投資自由化外，中國還將參照國際通行的投資政策框架體系，推進投資便利化、投資促進以及投資者的利益保護。時間會證明，再啟改革進程、全面擴大對內對外開放依然是中國應對內外部風險最正確的選擇。

Presently, China's economy faces the challenge of balancing three difficult goals: dealing with the uncertain global environment, fending off systemic risks, and keeping macroeconomic stability while deepening reform.

Globalization has undoubtedly entered into a new phase. The Politburo of China recently noted an obvious change in the external environment, namely increasing pressure on China from trade friction with the US. Escalating protectionism will seriously threaten the global economic recovery. What adjustments should be made to China's macro policy?

In July, global trade disputes evolved into a fully-fledged trade war. On July 1, the US and Canada imposed duties reciprocally; on July 6, the US did the same with China. Moreover, on July 10th, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) released a list of goods, valued at $200 billion, that would face higher tariffs. Together with the $50 billion tariff list the US previously released, the US' new tariffs will affect 11% of China's global exports, and half of China's exports to the US.

In the first half of 2018, the contributions of final consumption expenditure, total capital formation, and net exports to China's GDP were 5.3%, 2.1%, and -0.7% respectively. China-US trade friction, the breaking of the supply chain, and the reduction of the trade surplus all suggest that it is necessary to establish a risk-hedging mechanism in macroeconomic policy.

In the face of the uncertain internal environment, China should adjust its macro policy by deleveraging rather than by returning to expansion and leveraging. Monetary policy controls total liquidity; fiscal policy affects income tax. In order to support local financial institutions and satisfy the credit demand of small and medium-sized enterprises, some commercial banks have reduced the structural parameters in the macro-prudential assessment (MPA) framework by about 0.5%. After the parameters are reduced, the bank's macro capital adequacy ratio requirement will be lower.

China's Ministry of Finance has made it clear that, instead of carrying out economic stimulus, it will instead focus on reducing tax burdens; thus, it can avoid increasing implicit debts, while guaranteeing that construction projects will be financed. According to the Ministry's data, the Chinese government's income totaled $26 trillion in 2016, of which tax revenue and extra revenue (including fees, government funds, social security payments, operating profits of state owned capital, etc) each accounted for 50%. China's non-tax revenue has gradually increased and reached 18.3% of fiscal revenue in 2016. In comparison, the US federal non-tax revenue makes up less than 5% of federal fiscal revenue. Additionally, China's corporate tax rate is 25%, only 4 percentage points higher than the US' 21% after recent tax cuts. Since the Eighteenth National Congress of the CPC, the government has reduced enterprises' tax burden by more than ¥2.1 trillion. However, there is still room to further reduce tax burdens, reform the complicated tax code, lower the nominal tax rate, step up marketizing reforms, and adjust the interest distribution mechanism.

Judging from China's economic performance in the first half of 2018, the supply-side structural reform consumed some overcapacity. In the first half of the year, the profits of nation-wide industrial enterprises increased by 17.2%, with 67% of the profit increase due to growth in the petroleum, nonmetallic mineral products, chemical raw materials, and chemical manufacturing industries. In terms of controlling systemic risk, local governments' debt replacement has lowered their risks of default, and China's real estate destocking has reduced the risks of loan defaults in the real estate and banking industries. These moves have improved the resilience of China's short-term economic growth.

In addition to short-term policy adjustments, China needs to continue reforming and opening up on a larger scale. And the pace of reform and opening up will only hasten. From September 2013 to April 2018, the State Council established 12 free trade areas. Now, the 2018 Catalogue for the Guidance of Foreign Investment Industries continues to largely relax restrictions on foreign investment, and launches a series of important opening-up measures. More than 22 industries are open to foreign capital, including agriculture, grain purchase, railways, power grid, international transport, internet, finance, and securities. Items on the negative list, for which foreign investment is restricted, was reduced from 63 to 48 items; this is a 59% decrease from the 117 items on the list in 2017. This represents China's efforts to further open up in recent years, to conform to international economic rules, and to reform the rules administering foreign investment. Furthermore, China will facilitate and promote investments, and protect investors' interests in accordance with international norms. Time will prove that it is the right choice for China to cope with internal and external risks.