近年中美雙邊貿易發展勢頭有所減弱。

根據中方統計，2015年中美貿易總額為5583億美元，比2014年微幅增長0.58%。中國對美出口4095億美元，年增3.4%。而根據美方統計，當年美中貿易總額為5981億美元，與2014年相比增長1.25%，其中美國對華出口1162億美元，是2009年來首次出現負增長（-6.3%）。

根據中方統計，2016年1-10月，中美雙邊貿易額為4180.3億美元，同比下降9.1%。中國對美出口為3125.7億美元，下降8%；中國從美國進口為1054.6億美元，下降12.2%。中國對美國貿易順差2071億美元，下降5.6%。根據美方統計，2016年1-10月，美中貿易總額4884.9億美元，同比下降5.4%。美國對中國出口920.3億美元，下降3.5%；美國從中國進口3964.6億美元，下降5.8%。美國對中國貿易逆差3044.3億美元，下降6.5%，比上半年情況略有改善。

(1)對華貿易逆差

多年來，美國對華始終存在巨額貿易逆差。2014年，美國對華貿易逆差3426億美元，佔美國總貿易逆差的50.6%。2015年，美國對華貿易逆差3657億美元，佔美國7371億美元總貿易逆差的49.6%。2016年上半年，美國對華貿易逆差1610億美元，占其3483億美元總貿易逆差的46.2%，略有下降。

美國的貿易逆差由三部分組成。首先是競爭型逆差，日本的汽車和歐洲的空客飛機對美國的同類產業構成威脅，而且處理起來必須慎之又慎。其次是資源型逆差，美國從美洲和中東地區進口大量原油，從非洲和亞洲地區進口大量礦產資源，這是其貿易逆差的重要組成部分，而且難以解決。第三是補充型逆差，美國從中國、東亞和東南亞進口日用消費品，作為經濟、產業結構和人民生活的重要補充，這對美國是有利的。

中國向美國出口的大多是物美價廉的日用消費品，它有助於緩解美國的通貨膨脹，使中低收入人群獲益。

傳統貿易分析方法無法解釋當前的貿易失衡。

首先，中國改革開放以來，約70%的在華海外投資來自東亞。曾導致其他東亞經濟體與美國之間出現貿易逆差的產品，現在是在中國內地製造，從而產生了“貿易平衡轉移效應”。這些產品的大部分零部件來自東亞，它們不是“中國製造”，而是“東亞地區製造”，這部分產品的出口收入是由東亞地區分享，而不是中國獨享。但根據原產地原則，這些出口到美國的產品的所有價值都算到了中國頭上。其實中美貿易不能簡單看成雙邊貿易，它是多邊貿易，是美國與東亞地區之間的貿易。

其次，中美貿易的一個突出特點是60%屬於加工貿易。中國只通過加工分得利潤的很小一部分。美國進口商、批發商和零售商的利潤份額遠大於中國製造商和出口商的份額。因此會有“中國順差，美國獲利”的現象。正如美國經濟學家查爾斯·卡德萊克所說，根據原產地原則，美國一隻蘋果手機的178美元製造成本是計在中國賬下，因為中國是最後組裝地，但中國從每部手機得到的附加值只有6.5美元。

美國從1971年起出現貿易逆差，已延續46年。根據美國海關的統計，美國對90多個國家和地區有貿易逆差。不應該把所有怨氣都撒向人民幣匯率。相反，這是經濟全球化、產業調整和大規模國際分工的自然結果，是一個無法逆轉的結構性問題。

(2)人民幣匯率問題

多年來，歷屆美國政府一直迫使其貿易夥伴的貨幣升值，以減少貿易逆差。美國在上世紀80年代早期對德國馬克、80年代中期對日元、80年代末期對新台幣，以及90年代早期對韓元都是這麼做的。新世紀伊始，美國同樣強壓人民幣大幅升值。但結果如何呢？這些年來，美國與德國、日本、台灣地區、韓國和中國仍然保持着貿易逆差，從來也沒扭轉過。2015年，美國的貿易逆差對德國達742億美元，對日本686億美元，對台灣地區148億美元，對韓國283億美元，對中國是3657億美元。

再以中國為例。從2005年7月到2016年8月初，人民幣升值36%，而美國對華貿易逆差從2016億美元增加到2015年的3657億美元，增長了81.4%。

這些事實說明，一個國家或地區的貿易順差或逆差，與其匯率並無太大關係。匯率不是決定性因素。相反，逆差或順差只是一種交易活動，是基於市場的比較優勢使然。一個國家或地區的產品競爭力取決於一系列因素。為減少自身貿易逆差而簡單強迫對手將貨幣升值，是一種傳統的狹隘的國際貿易思維。時代變了，情況日益複雜，這種傳統思維必須調整更新。

經過11年的匯率改革，人民幣匯率已經基本上靠市場決定。匯率浮動區間從最初的0.3%，增加到0.5%、1%、2%和現在的3%。過去半年裡，人民幣匯率再次盯住一攬子貨幣，基本上保持了穩定。眼下人們更多關注的是人民幣對美元的貶值，而忽視了其對日元、歐元和英鎊不同程度的升值。

人民幣對美元貶值的主要原因不在人民幣，而在美元自身。2016年10月10日，美元指數突破97，次日人民幣匯率中間價為6.7098。11月15日，美元指數超過100，11月16日人民幣匯率中間價為6.8592。12月22日，美元指數上升到103.36，達2002年以來14年內的最高點，次日人民幣匯率中間價為6.9463。面對美元大幅升值，許多發展中國家貨幣都遭遇了比較劇烈的貶值，相比之下人民幣的波動卻相對溫和。這是公認且不容歪曲的事實。

2016年10月1日，IMF正式將人民幣納入特別提款權（SDR）籃子，成為它的五種儲備貨幣之一。這是對人民幣匯率市場化改革和人民幣得到廣泛使用的認可。

2017年中美經貿關係將進入多事之秋。

有強烈保護主義色彩的特朗普團隊上台後，將不可避免地在全球推行貿易保護主義，並註定遭到世界各國的反對和報復。其結果將是害人害己，讓世界經濟倒退。歷史上不乏這樣的例子。上世紀30年代，美國陷入大蕭條，胡佛總統大幅增加進口關稅，以保護國內產業，遭到世界其他國家的反對。當商品不能自由跨越國界的時候，軍隊就會跨越國界。第二次世界大戰由此爆發。

中國無意發動一場貿易戰，也不懼怕貿易戰。在中美經濟交流的44年里，只發生過一次貿易戰，即1983年的紡織品貿易爭端。它最終以美國政府讓步收場。值得注意的是，中國1983年的GDP不到美國的5%，2015年已經是美國的61%。今天的中國已經不是33年前的那個中國，任何美國政府都不得小覷。2015年，中國進口了美國銷往海外22%的棉花、56%的大豆、26%的波音飛機和33%賣給其他國家的通用汽車。這些產品的替代品是可以在世界其他地方找到的，美國對此心知肚明。

對話比對抗好，合作比摩擦好。中國和美國互為對方的大市場。2010年以來，中國一直是美國農產品的最大市場。特朗普任命一位農業州的州長擔任美國駐華大使，就是希望促進對中國的農業出口。

中國成為美國重要的貿易夥伴已有時日。2015年，（按美方統計）美中貿易額為5981億美元，佔美國對外貿易總額的16%。如果加上香港和澳門，美中貿易額則達到6426億美元，佔美國對外貿易總額的17.2%。

這也就是說，美國同樣是中國重要的貿易夥伴。2015年，（按中方統計）中美貿易額為5583億美元，佔中國對外貿易總額的14.3%。中國對美國出口4095億美元，占出口總額的18%。如果加上經由香港的出口，則出口額達4819億美元，佔中國出口總額的21.2%。2012年以來，美國已經超過歐盟成為中國最大的出口市場。

中美經貿合作前景廣闊，既有巨大的機遇，也有嚴峻的挑戰。兩國合則兩利，爭則兩敗。兩國政府應本着互利共贏的精神，加強對話與合作，這不僅有利於中美兩國人民，也將推動世界經濟的發展。

China-US bilateral trade has shown a weaker momentum in recent years.

According to Chinese statistics, China-US trade totaled $558.3 billion in 2015, increasing slightly by 0.58% over 2014. China's exports to the US reached $409.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. According to US statistics, US-China trade was $598.1 billion, a moderate growth of 1.25% compared with 2014. US exports to China totaled $116.2 billion, the first shrinkage (-6.3%) since 2009.

Bilateral trade totaled $418.03 billion from January to October 2016, falling by 9.1%, according to Chinese statistics. Chinese exports to the US were $312.57 billion, falling by 8%. Chinese imports from the US were $105.46 billion, dropping by 12.2%. China's trade surplus with the US was $207.1 billion, decreasing by 5.6%. According to US statistics, US-China trade totaled US$488.49 billion from January to October 2016, down by 5.4%. US exports to China were $92.03 billion, dropping by 3.5%. US imports from China were $396.46 billion, down by 5.8%. The US trade deficit with China was $304.43 billion, down by 6.5%, slightly better than the first half of the year.

Trade Deficit with China

For many years, the US has run a big trade deficit with China. In 2014, that deficit was $342.6 billion, accounting for 50.6% of the total US trade deficit. In 2015, the US trade deficit with China $365.7 billion, accounting for 49.6% of the total US trade deficit of $737.1 billion. In the first half of 2016, the US had a deficit of $161 billion, accounting for 46.2% of its total trade deficit of $348.3 billion, which has come down slightly for the six-month period year-on-year.

The US trade deficit is composed of three parts. First, the competitive deficit. Japan's automobiles and the Airbus aircraft from Europe constitute a threat to their counterpart industries in the US and must be handled carefully. Second, the resource deficit. The US imports a huge amount of crude oil from the Americas and Middle East and minerals from Africa and Asia. This is an important part of its trade deficit and cannot be resolved easily. Third, the supplementary deficit. The US imports daily consumer goods from China, East Asia and Southeast Asia as an important supplement to its economy, industrial structure and people's life. This is nothing but beneficial to the US.

Most of China's exports to the US are daily consumer goods of high quality yet low cost. This helps alleviate inflation in the US and benefits low and middle-income groups.

Traditional trade statistics cannot explain the current issue of trade imbalance.

First, since the start of reform and opening-up, about 70% of the foreign investment in China has come from East Asia. Products that used to create a deficit between other East Asian economies and the US have been made on the Chinese mainland, causing the “effect of trade balance transfer”. Most of the parts and components in these products are from East Asia. They are not “Made in China”, but “Made in East Asia”. The income from the exports is shared by East Asia, not solely by China. However, according to the principle of place of origin, all the value of the exports to the US is attributed to China. China-US trade cannot be simply characterized as bilateral trade. It is multilateral trade, trade between the US and East Asia.

Second, one prominent feature of China-US trade is that 60% of it is processing trade. China only gets a fraction of the profits from processing. The US importers, wholesalers and retailers get a far larger share of the profits than Chinese manufacturers and exporters. Hence the phenomenon of “surplus in China, profits in the US”. As US economist Charles Kadlec said, according to the principle of place of origin, the $178 manufacturing cost of an iPhone is put under China's account, because China is the final assembly place. China, however, only gets $6.50 of the added value of each phone.

It has been 46 years since 1971, when the US started running a foreign trade deficit. According to the statistics of the US customs authorities, the US has trade deficits with more than 90 countries and regions. The blame should not be all put on the RMB exchange rate. Rather, it is a natural result of economic globalization, industrial adjustment and massive international division of labor. This is a structural issue that cannot be reversed.

The Issue of the RMB Exchange Rate

It has been the practice of the successive US governments over the years to force the currencies of their trading partners to significantly appreciate, so as to reduce trade deficits. The US did so to the Deutschemark in the early 1980s, to the Japanese yen in the mid-1980s, to the New Taiwan Dollar in the late 1980s, and to the ROK won in the early 1990s. Since the beginning of the new century, the US has pushed hard for significant RMB appreciation.But what has been the result of these moves? Over the years, the US has maintained trade deficits with Germany, Japan, the Taiwan region, ROK and China. This has never been reversed. In 2015, the US ran trade deficits of $74.2 billion with Germany, $68.6 billion with Japan, $14.8 billion with the Taiwan region, $28.3 billion with the ROK and $365.7 billion with China.

Once again, take China for example. The RMB appreciated by 36% from July 2005 to early August 2016, while the US trade deficit with China increased from $201.6 billion to $365.7 billion in 2015, up by 81.4% since 2005.

These facts show that the trade surplus or deficit of a country or region does not have much to do with its exchange rate. The exchange rate is not the deciding factor. Rather, deficit or surplus is a trading activity. It is the result of comparative advantages on a market basis. The competitiveness of the products of a country or region is determined by a host of factors. Simply forcing the currency appreciation of the counterparty to reduce one's own trade deficit is a traditional and narrow-minded thinking on international trade. Times have changed, and the situation is more complicated. Such conventional thinking must be adjusted and updated.

After 11 years of exchange-rate reform, the RMB exchange rate has basically become market driven. The band of the exchange rate fluctuation has increased from the original 0.3% to 0.5%, 1%, 2% and current 3%. In the past half-year, the RMB exchange rate has been once again pegged to a basket of currencies and basically maintained stability. Now, people are more focused on the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar and neglect its appreciation to different degrees against the yen, euro and pound.

The main reason for the RMB's depreciation against the dollar lies in the dollar itself, not the RMB. On Oct 10, 2016, the USDX exceeded 97, and the central parity rate of the RMB was 6.7098 the following day. On Nov 15, the USDX exceeded 100, and the central parity rate of the RMB was 6.8592 on Nov 16. On Dec 22, the USDX rose to 103.36, a 14-year high since 2002. The central parity rate of the RMB was 6.9463 the next day. In the face of the significant appreciation of the US dollar, the currencies of quite many developing countries have experienced relatively sharp depreciation. By comparison, the fluctuation of the RMB is comparatively moderate. This is a widely recognized fact that must not be distorted.

On Oct 1, 2016, the International Monetary Fund officially included the RMB into the SDR basket as one of its five reserve currencies. This is a recognition of the market-based reform of the RMB exchange rate and the global use of the RMB.There is no reason that China should be labeled as a “currency manipulator”.

China-US economic and trade relations will enter an eventful period in 2017.

As the strongly protectionist Trump team takes office, they will inevitably push for trade protectionism globally, which will for sure meet with opposition and reprisals across the world. As a consequence, it will hurt all and benefit none, and the world economy will backslide. There are examples in history. In the 1930s when the US experienced the Great Depression, President Herbert Hoover raised import tariffs by a great margin to protect domestic industries. That was opposed by the rest of the world. When goods cannot move across borders freely, soldiers go beyond national borders. The Second World War thus broke out.

China has no intention to wage a trade war. Nor is it afraid of a trade war. In the 44 years of China-US economic exchanges, there has been only one trade war: the textile trade dispute in 1983. It ended with compromise made by the US government. It is worth noting that China's GDP in 1983 was less than 5% of that of the US, while China's GDP in 2015 was 61% of US GDP. Today's China is not what it was 33 years ago. Any US administration should never belittle China. In 2015, China imported 22% of US cotton, 56% of US soy beans, 26% of Boeing aircraft and 33% of the GM vehicles sold overseas. Substitutes for these products can be found elsewhere in the world. The US is fully aware of that.

Dialogue is better than confrontation, and cooperation is better than friction. China and the US are each other's big market. Since 2010, China has been the largest market for US agricultural products. Trump nominated the governor of an agricultural state to be the US ambassador to China in the hope of promoting agricultural exports to China.

China has become a vital trading partner for the US over a long period. US-China trade in 2015 was $598.1 billion, accounting for 16% of US foreign trade. If Hong Kong and Macao are included, US-China trade will be $642.6 billion, accounting for 17.2% of US foreign trade.

That said, the US is also a very important trading partner of China. In 2015, China-US trade was $558.3 billion, accounting for 14.3% of China's foreign trade. China's exports to the US were $409.5 billion, accounting for 18% of its total exports. If the $481.9 billion exports via Hong Kong are included, it will account for 21.2% of China's total exports. Since 2012, the US has surpassed the EU as China's largest export market.

China-US economic and trade cooperation faces broad prospects, with both major opportunities and daunting challenges. The two countries will lose from confrontation and gain from cooperation. The two governments should strengthen dialogue and cooperation in a win-win spirit. This will not only benefit the Chinese and American people, but also promote the development of the world economy.