2015年11月22日，東盟10國聯合宣布將於12月31日正式建成東盟共同體，這是東盟一體化進程中的里程碑事件。東盟共同體究竟是一個什麼樣的組織？它和歐盟相比有哪些相似性，又有哪些不同？它是另一個歐盟嗎？

筆者認為，東盟共同體仍是一個很鬆散的合作機制，其整合水平依然較低；它具有明顯的“亞洲特色”，在可預見的將來不會發展成為另一個歐盟。

實現地區一體化是東盟1967年成立時的夢想之一。冷戰期間，東盟各國由於政治分歧很難實現合作。冷戰後，東盟國家逐漸走向聯合。2003年，東盟發表《東盟協調一致第二宣言》，首次提出到2020年建成東盟共同體的目標。2007年東盟峰會決定將共同體建成時間從2020年提前至2015年。按照東盟的設想，東盟共同體包括三個組成部分：經濟共同體、政治安全共同體和社會文化共同體。2015年12月31日建成的共同體即上述三個共同體的集合。

但無論是東盟共同體的經濟整合程度，還是各成員國在政治安全政策上的協調程度，抑或各國的社會文化融合程度，均遠遠無法與歐盟相比。

第一，東盟各國政治制度多樣，意識形態各異，宗教差異和族群隔閡長期存在，相互之間仍存在領土領海主權爭端，難以形成軍事聯盟或集體安全同盟。

第二，東盟各國經濟發展差別懸殊，多數國家仍是農業國和能源原材料輸出國，在國際產業鏈分工中處於低端，在基礎設施互聯互通、製造業發展、技術附加值提升、提高勞動生產率等方面仍離不開外部資金、技術和人力資源培訓支持。這決定了東盟共同體的經濟發展水平很低，難以在短期內實行類似歐盟那樣的單一貨幣、共同財政政策，更難實現國民相互自由流動。

第三，東盟長期奉行“東盟方式”，主張“協商一致、不干涉內政”，這決定了其不可能實行歐盟那樣的高度政治一體化。

第四，面對歐債危機、希臘債務危機，歐盟式的高度一體化道路已經引起東盟國家警覺和反思，東盟國家現在還未做好準備實行類似歐盟那樣的單一貨幣（歐元）、關稅聯盟政策，也不可能接受類似《申根協定》那樣允許各成員國居民自由免簽進入別國的機制性安排。

事實上，東盟共同體在很大程度上更類似於歐洲國家50年前建成的歐洲共同體。1951年，歐洲國家簽署《關於建立歐洲煤鋼共同體的條約》，建立煤鋼聯營。1965年，歐洲國家簽署《布魯塞爾條約》，決定將歐洲煤鋼共同體、歐洲原子能共同體和歐洲經濟共同體合并為歐洲共同體，其最主要的特徵是高度強調市場的資源配置作用，初步實現了歐洲統一大市場，因此歐共體又被稱為“歐洲共同市場”。

與此類似，東盟共同體也十分強調“單一的市場和生產基地”的重要性。目前新加坡、馬來西亞、汶萊、印尼、泰國、菲律賓等六個經濟較發達東盟成員國之間已基本實現貨物貿易零關稅，越南、老撾、柬埔寨、緬甸等四個經濟欠發達的國家之間最遲也將於2018年基本實現貨物貿易零關稅。但東盟共同體在經濟層面的“亮點”僅此而已。事實上，其所謂的共同生產基地、內部高度互聯互通、對外強大的經濟競爭力等均未實現，且在未來很長時期內能否實現都要打問號。不僅如此，東盟各國在政治安全、社會文化領域的整合多年來並無實質性進展，雖建立了東亞峰會（EAS）、東盟地區論壇（ARF）和東盟防長擴大會（ADMM+）等諸多對話平台，但多數存在執行力不夠的問題，甚至因此被一些國際人士稱為“清談館”。近年來，東盟各國更因南海問題導致內部政治、安全分歧增大。因此，東盟共同體的實際水平可想而知。

東盟共同體雖不盡如人意，但畢竟即將呱呱墜地，未來如何走好才是關鍵。2015年11月22日，東盟峰會在宣布年底建成共同體的同時，發佈了題為《東盟2025年：攜手前進》的願景文件，為東盟共同體下一個10年將向何處去、建成什麼樣子作出明確規劃。在這份文件中，東盟並未提出在可預見的未來建立歐盟式一體化組織的願景，原因恐怕還是東盟各國深知其政治、宗教和文化差異太大，經濟發展水平差異懸殊，領土和海洋爭議懸而未決，如果完全複製歐盟模式，勢必欲速則不達。從東盟自己勾勒的到2025年共同體發展藍圖看，東盟一體化仍將遵循溫和、漸進、彈性、寬鬆的“東盟方式”。

對於東盟共同體的成立，國際社會不應過多擔心。不僅如此，其未來一體化建設甚至有可能給中國、美國、印度等亞太國家帶來新的合作機會。經濟上，東盟共同體未來在加強基礎設施互聯互通、製造業升級改造、提高勞動生產率等方面，都離不開外部資金、技術和人力資源培訓的支持。地區安全事務上，東盟將繼續奉行“東盟方式”，繼續與國際社會就反恐、打擊跨國犯罪和毒品走私、救災管理、應對氣候變化等開展合作，繼續通過東亞峰會、東盟地區論壇、東盟與對話夥伴（10+1）、東盟與中日韓（10+3）、東盟防長擴大會議等對話機制與世界各主要力量保持對話夥伴關係，同時促進中美在東南亞特別是南海地區保持建設性對話與合作關係。

On Nov. 22, the 10 members of ASEAN jointly announced that the ASEAN Community would be realized on Dec 31. It will be a milestone in the ASEAN integration process. What type of organization will the ASEAN Community be? What are the similarities and differences between the ASEAN Community and EU? Is it another EU? 

 In my view, the ASEAN Community remains a rather loose cooperation mechanism, with a fairly low level of integration. It has distinctive 'Asian characteristics' and will not develop into another EU in the foreseeable future.

Regional integration has been one of ASEAN's dreams since its establishment in 1967. During the Cold War, ASEAN countries found it difficult to cooperate with each other due to political differences. Since the end of the Cold War, they have gradually come together. In 2003, the Declaration of ASEAN Concord II was published, initiating the objective of creating an ASEAN Community by 2020. The 2007 ASEAN Summit decided to reduce the timeline to 2015. In ASEAN's vision, the Community will be based on three pillars, namely a security community, an economic community and a socio-cultural community. The Dec 31 announcement reflects a combination of the three.

Nonetheless, the levels of economic integration, political and security policy coordination as well as socio-cultural fusion in the ASEAN Community can not be compared with those of the EU.

First, ASEAN countries have many differences in political system, ideology and religion, with long-standing ethnic estrangements. There are still disputes over territory and sea. It will be rather difficult to form a military or collective security alliance.

Second, the level of economic development differs greatly across ASEAN countries. As most of them are agricultural producers and exporters of energy and raw materials, and remain at the low end of the global industrial value chain, they still need external financial and technological support as well as human-resources training to develop infrastructural connectivity, manufacturing, technical added value and productivity. As such the ASEAN Community's economic development level is low and it is hardly possible for it to have a single currency or a common fiscal policy, let alone free movement of people.

Third, ASEAN has long followed the 'ASEAN Way' of 'consensus' and 'non-interference in internal affairs', which makes it impossible to have political integration to the EU extent.

Fourth, in face of the European debt crisis and Greek debt crisis, the EU path to integration has put ASEAN countries on alert and caused them to reflect. ASEAN countries are not yet prepared to adopt a single currency or become a customs union, nor is it possible for them to accept an institutional arrangement similar to the Schengen Agreement that will allow their citizens visa-free entries into other member countries.

Actually, the ASEAN Community will be more similar to the European Community created 50 years ago. In 1951, six European states signed the Treaty establishing the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC). In 1965, the Brussels Treaty was signed, combining the ECSC, European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom) and European Economic Community (EEC) into one European Community. It stressed the market's role in resource allocation and initially achieved a unified European market. The European Community is therefore also called the European Common Market.

Similarly, the ASEAN Community also stresses the importance of a single market and production base. At present, the six relatively more developed ASEAN members, Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines, have basically achieved zero tariff in trade in goods among them. The four relatively less developed members, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar, will also basically arrive at zero tariff by 2018.However, this is almost the only economic 'highlight' of the ASEAN Community. But they have not yet achieved and as a matter of fact are far away from a common production base, internal connectivity and external competitiveness. Moreover, ASEAN's integration effort in the political, security, social and cultural fields has not made much substantive progress. Even though multiple dialogue platforms have been created, including the East Asia Summit (EAS), ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and ASEAN Defence Ministerial Meeting Plus (ADMM+), the majority lack actual implementation capacity and are referred to by some as 'talk shops'. In recent years, the South China Sea issue has led to increased internal political and security differences.

Though less than being satisfactory, the ASEAN Community will be born soon. The key now is how it will be developed and where it will go. On Nov 22, when the ASEAN Summit announced the realization of an ASEAN Community at the end of the year, a vision document entitled ASEAN 2025：Forging Ahead Together was also published, providing a clear plan for the next 10 years. The document actually does not envisage an EU-style integration in the foreseeable future. ASEAN countries know too well that they have huge differences in political system, religion, culture and level of economic development, and that there are still outstanding territorial and maritime disputes. Should they decide to copy the European model, they would not be successful. According to the 2025 blueprint, they will continue following the ASEAN way, i.e., the integration process will be moderate, gradual, elastic and loose.

The international community does not need to worry too much about the ASEAN Community. Its further integration may even bring about new cooperation opportunities for countries in the Asia Pacific, including China, the US and India. Economically, the ASEAN Community will need financial, technological and human resources support to enhance connectivity, upgrade manufacturing and increase productivity. In regional security affairs, ASEAN will, in the ASEAN way, continue its cooperation with the international community in the fight against terrorism, cross-boundary crimes and drug trafficking and in disaster relief and dealing with climate change. It will maintain dialogue and partnership with all major forces in the world through such mechanisms as EAS, ARF, 10+1, 10+3 and ADMM+, and promote the maintenance of constructive dialogue and cooperation between China and US in Southeast Asia, particularly in the South China Sea.