隨着林鄭月娥上周末當選香港首位女特首，“大中華區”三部分（大陸、台灣和香港）當中如今已有兩個由女性領導。三連中是不可能的，中華人民共和國在可預見的未來由一位女性領導，得出現奇蹟才行。然而，在世界許多地方男性主導政治領導的現象受到挑戰的今天，中國公眾可能會對中國政治精英的性別失衡給予更多的關注。

中國共產黨準備在今年秋天舉行的第十九次黨代會上進行五年一次的領導人換屆，所以分析中國女性領導的代表性尤為重要和及時。在376名中央委員中，約七成將離任，以便給新人讓賢。中央政治局及權力遮天的政治局常務委員會也會有同樣高比例的更換。當此重要關頭，中國精英政治中女性領導的現狀如何？前景如何？最高領導機構中女性領導的比例會在十九大增加嗎？哪位女性新星正走向中國政治的頂層？

1949年建國以來，中國當局總在宣稱中共十分關注婦女問題。然而在黨的領導層中，婦女的代表性一直可以忽略不計。除了1973年的十大和1977年的十一大，婦女佔中央委員總人數中的比例從來沒有超過一成。只有少數女性進入過中央政治局，其中大多還是最高領導人的夫人，如江青（毛澤東夫人）、葉群（林彪夫人）和鄧穎超（周恩來夫人）。在中共歷史上，從來沒有女性進入政治局常委。

本屆政治局（2012年十八大組建）至少包括兩位女性——副總理劉延東（1945生）和中央統戰部部長孫春蘭（1950年生），這也是文化大革命結束以來的首次。即使如此，中央委員會（包括中央委員和候補委員，譯者注）中女性比例還是從第十七屆的10%下降到第十八屆的8.8%，中央委員中女性比例下降更顯著，從上屆的13人（6.4%）減少到本屆的10人（4.9%）。

由於年齡限制，至少有一位（劉延東）或兩位現任女政治局委員將在十九大後退休。其他八位女性中央委員中，前司法部長吳愛英（1951年生）已經退休，人大常委會副委員長沈躍躍（1957年生）和全國婦聯副主席宋秀岩（1955年生）都是有共青團背景的團派幹部，她們一度都是冉冉升起的新星，但由於不利的派系身份，她們現在鮮有機會繼續高升了。

其他四位委員所在的領導崗位都不是傳統的政治進身之階，她們是中華全國供銷合作總社理事會主任王俠（1954年生）、中國文聯黨組書記趙實（1953年生）、中國作協主席鐵凝（1957年生）和最高人民檢察院常務副檢察長鬍澤君（1955年生）。而且，趙實和胡澤君也是團派幹部，這使她們的上升機會更加渺茫。

在目前的中央委員中，十九大上唯一有可能進入政治局的女候選人也許是國家衛生和計劃生育委員會主任李斌（1954年生）。李斌是滿族人，早年曾在吉林省當教師，後任吉林省副省長和安徽省省長。在國務院的25位部長中，李斌目前是唯一女性。人們普遍認為李斌是李克強總理的門下。

在第十八屆中央委員會的23位女候補委員中，有些人已經只有象徵性職位，一人（前北京市委副書記呂錫文，1955年生）最近因貪腐指控被清除。這些候補委員大多在同一省份或同一部門工作多年，這意味着她們的位置不利於快速升遷，升得快通常需要更頻繁地轉換崗位，要有更多的領導閱歷。

當然也有例外。比如湖南省委副書記烏蘭（1962年生）2016年任現職前，曾歷任內蒙古自治區共青團委書記、區政府副主席和宣傳部長。新被任命為全國婦聯書記處書記的夏傑（1960年生）曾在黑龍江任省委組織部副部長和統戰部部長（她主要是獲得了時任省長栗戰書的提拔），之後她出任河南省委組織部部長。新的寧夏回族自治區主席咸輝（1958年生）之前任甘肅省常務副省長。有趣的是，所有這些女領導幹部都是少數民族。

在中國31個省級政府中，目前沒有女性擔任省或市的黨委書記，而這是進入政治局的最重要階梯。任省長的只有兩位女性：前面提到的咸輝，以及內蒙古自治區主席布小林（1958年生），後者也是少數民族。布小林並不在第十八屆中央委員會的23位女性候補委員當中。

隨着習近平即將開啟作為中共中央總書記的第二任期，許多人預計他會任命大批親信和志趣相投者擔任國家領導職務，以繼續鞏固他的權力。不意外的是，這些經驗豐富且具備良好條件的政治新星絕大多數是男性。這倒不是說習近平和他的團隊完全忽視培養有前途的女領導幹部的必要性。例如，第十八屆中央委員會候補委員、前中國電信研究院院長曹淑敏（1966年生）最近就被任命為江西省鷹潭市委書記、市長。曹淑敏曾推動建設中國第四代移動通信系統（技術上所謂的“時分長期演進”，或TD-LTE）。2017年1月被廣泛報道的一則消息稱，習近平曾接見曹淑敏，稱讚她為中國網絡空間發展作出的貢獻。由於新獲得管理中等城市的領導經驗，曹淑敏很可能在不久的將來扮演更重要的領導角色。類似的例子還有清華大學黨委書記陳旭（1963年生）。過去十年，陳旭一直是這所享有盛譽和權勢的大學（也是習近平的母校）的高層領導，她有望在不久的將來進入國家領導層。

由於中國領導層中可供選擇擔任更高職務的婦女幹部儲備有限，第十九屆政治局中女性領導的人數不可能有實質性增加。曹淑敏和陳旭今年秋天最多成為中央委員會委員，體制規則與規範會阻礙她們更快地晉陞。雖然隨着時間推移，中國的黨國體製成功包容了更廣泛的背景和觀點，但在女性領導提升方面，中國仍落後於全球趨勢。除非習近平和中共領導層優先考慮積極的體制改革，現在着手解決這一問題，否則女性領導不足將成為未來中國黨國體制的一個明顯缺陷。

With this past weekend's election of Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (林鄭月娥) as Hong Kong's first female chief executive, women now lead two of the three societies making up so-called “Greater China” (the Mainland, Taiwan, and Hong Kong). A trifecta remains unlikely, as it would take a miracle for a woman to become head of the People's Republic of China (PRC) in the foreseeable future. Yet, at a time when male-dominance in political leadership is being challenged in many parts of the world, the PRC public is likely to take greater notice of the gender imbalance within China's political elite.

An analysis of the representation of woman leaders in China is particularly important and timely as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) prepares for its once-every-five-years leadership change at the 19th Party Congress this fall. About 70 percent of the 376 members on the Central Committee are expected to depart in order to make way for newcomers. The Politburo and its all-powerful Standing Committee will experience similarly high rates of turnover. At this important juncture, what is the status of –– and what are the prospects for –– women leaders in China's elite politics? Will the percentage of women leaders in top leadership bodies increase at the 19th Party Congress? Which female rising stars are on the path to the upper echelons of Chinese politics?

Since the founding of the PRC in 1949, Chinese authorities have frequently trumpeted the CCP's careful attention to women's issues. However, female representation in the party leadership has generally remained negligible. With the exception of the 10th Party Congress in 1973 and the 11th Party Congress in 1977, women have never made up more than 10 percent of the total membership of the Central Committee. Only a handful of female leaders have ever served in the Politburo. Most were wives of top leaders, such as Jiang Qing (江青, Mao's wife), Ye Qun (葉群, Lin Biao's wife), and Deng Yingchao (鄧穎超, Zhou Enlai's wife). Throughout CCP history, no woman has ever served on the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC).

For the first time since the end of the Cultural Revolution, the current Politburo (formed at the 18th Party Congress in 2012) includes at least two women –– the vice-premier, Liu Yandong (劉延東, born in 1945), and the head of the Central United Front Work Department, Sun Chunlan (孫春蘭, b. 1950). Even so, female representation decreased from 10 percent on the 17th Central Committee to 8.8 percent on the 18th Central Committee. The decline in female full members was even more significant: from thirteen (6.4 percent) on the last Central Committee to ten (4.9 percent) on the current one.

At least one (Liu Yandong) and perhaps both of the current female Politburo members will retire at the 19th Party Congress due to age limitations. Among the other eight women leaders with full membership on the Central Committee, former minister of justice Wu Aiying (吳愛英,b. 1951) has already retired. Shen Yueyue (沈躍躍, b. 1957), vice chair of the National People's Congress (NPC), and Song Xiuyan (宋秀岩, b. 1955), chair of the All-China Women's Federation, both were once rising stars known as tuanpai officials because of their Chinese Communist Youth League (CCYL) backgrounds. But now both of them seem to have little chance for further promotion due to their unfavorable factional identity.

Four other full members all hold leadership posts that are not traditional stepping-stones for further political promotion: Chair of the All-China Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives Wang Xia (王俠, b. 1954), Party Secretary of the Chinese Literature and Art Association Zhao Shi (趙實, b. 1953), Chair of the China Writers Association Tie Ying (鐵凝,b. 1957) and Executive Deputy Procurator General of the Supreme People's Procuratorate Hu Zejun (胡澤君, b. 1955). In addition, Zhao and Hu are both seen as tuanpai leaders, further dimming their promotion prospects.

Perhaps the only woman candidate among the current full members of the Central Committee who could potentially gain a Politburo seat at the 19th Party Congress is Li Bin (李斌, b. 1954), the minister of the National Health and Family Planning Commission. A Manchu, Li Bin advanced her early career as a teacher in Jilin Province and later served as vice governor of Jilin and governor of Anhui. Among the 25 ministers in the State Council, Li Bin is currently the only woman. It has been widely perceived that Li Bin is a protégé of Premier Li Keqiang.

Of the 23 female alternate members of the 18th Central Committee, some have already moved into ceremonial positions and one (former deputy party secretary of Beijing Lu Xiwen, 呂錫文, b. 1955) was recently purged on corruption charges. Most of these alternate members have remained in the same province or have worked in the same sector for many years, meaning that they are poorly positioned for fast-track promotions, which often require more-frequent reshuffling and broader leadership experience.

There are, of course, a few exceptions. For example, Hunan Deputy Party Secretary Wulan (烏蘭, b. 1962, Mongolian) advanced her career in Inner Mongolia as CCYL secretary, vice governor, and propaganda head—in that order—before taking her current post in Hunan in 2016. The newly appointed secretary of the All-China Women's Federation, Xia Jie (夏傑,b. 1960, Hui), advanced her early career in Heilongjiang, where she served as deputy head of the Organization Department and head of the United Front Work Department in the Heilongjiang Provincial Party Committee. (She was promoted primarily by then governor Li Zhanshu). She later served as head of the Organization Department of the Henan Provincial Party Committee. The new Ningxia governor, Xian Hui (咸輝, b. 1958, Hui), previously served as executive vice-governor of Gansu. Interestingly enough, all of these female leaders are ethnic minorities.

At present, out of China's 31 provincial level administrations, no woman serves as a provincial or municipal party secretary –– the most important stepping-stone to a Politburo seat. Only two women serve as governors: the aforementioned Xian Hui and the governor of Inner Mongolia, Buxiaolin (布小林,b. 1958), who is also an ethnic minority. Buxiaolin is not among the 23 women who are alternate members of the 18th Central Committee.

As Xi Jinping prepares to begin his second term as general secretary of the CCP, many expect that he will further consolidate his power by appointing numerous protégés and like-minded associates into the national leadership. Unsurprisingly, most of these well-experienced and well-positioned political rising stars are men. This does not necessarily mean Xi and his team have completely ignored the necessity of fostering their own cohort of promising female leaders. For example, Cao Shumin (曹淑敏, b. 1966), an alternate member of the 18th Central Committee and the former president of the China Information and Communication Research Institute, was recently appointed to be mayor and party secretary of Yingtan City, Jiangxi Province. Cao was instrumental in the establishment of China's fourth-generation mobile communication system (technically known as Time Division Long Term Evolution, or TD-LTE). In a highly publicized event in January 2017, Xi Jinping met with Cao and praised her contribution to China's cyber space development. With newly acquired leadership experience in running a medium-sized city, Cao will likely play an even more important leadership role in the near future. A similar example is Chen Xu (陳旭, b. 1963), the party secretary of Tsinghua University. Chen has been a top leader at this highly prestigious and politically powerful university—and Xi Jinping's alma mater—for over a decade, and she is expected to move into the national leadership in the near future.

Given that the CCP leadership has such a limited pool of women leaders from which to choose for higher offices, the number of female leaders in the 19th Politburo is highly unlikely to increase in any significant way. Cao and Chen will, at best, become full members on the Central Committee this fall. Institutional rules and norms prevent them from advancing their careers any faster. Although the PRC party-state system has successfully incorporated a broader range of backgrounds and viewpoints over time, China lags behind global trends in elevating female leaders. Unless Xi and the CCP leadership prioritize vigorous institutional reforms to address this issue now, the insufficient representation of women leaders will remain a notable deficiency of the PRC party-state system for the years to come.