2024年3月17日，外交部大使王克儉在訪問卡塔爾期間會見哈馬斯政治局主席伊斯梅爾·哈尼亞。（哈馬斯媒體辦公室）

近日，巴勒斯坦解放組織（法塔赫）和哈馬斯的代表在北京舉行了具有歷史意義的會晤，重點是調和內部分歧。事實證明這是向前邁出的重要一步，因為雙方就未來的談判取得了進展。

法塔赫和哈馬斯進行內部和解談判並不罕見，但這次的不同之處在於出現了新的調解人——中國。此前，中國就致力於改善兩派間的關係，並且取得成功。而且，雙方最近在巴勒斯坦舉行了幾輪談判，表明中國在解決中東安全衝突方面發揮着越來越大的作用。

加沙激烈而殘酷的戰鬥已經持續近七個月。越來越清晰的是，巴勒斯坦問題的解決依賴於通過外部調解來重新平衡該地區的力量格局。然而當前形勢處於兩難境地：希望解決巴勒斯坦問題的外部力量只能起到平抑衝突的作用，卻無法找到持久的解決辦法。該問題的根源，在於以色列和巴勒斯坦之間的力量失衡。

《奧斯陸協議》簽署以來，巴勒斯坦方面出現了日益衰弱的趨勢，令人擔憂。雪上加霜的是，法塔赫和哈馬斯之間的內部分歧不斷加劇。這種衰弱的態勢進一步阻礙了實現巴以和平的前景。首先，由於內部競爭阻礙達成共識，雙方的談判更加困難。其次，巴勒斯坦日益衰弱，使得以色列極端主義勢力更加大膽地推動單邊的“一國方案”。

此外，巴以衝突的現有國際調解框架未能意識和解決雙方嚴重的實力不平衡問題。美國是“四方會談”的關鍵參與者，歷來在調解爭端方面發揮着主導作用，但它始終未能解決巴勒斯坦的弱勢地位。美國支持“兩國方案”，但同時允許以色列保持目前的主導地位，就清晰地體現出這一點。

美國的和平方針似乎旨在維持以色列對巴勒斯坦的優勢地位，卻忽視任何加強巴勒斯坦實力的行動。例如，巴勒斯坦雖然依賴美國的人道主義援助，但卻沒有任何手段來加強抵禦入侵的防禦能力。與此同時，即使在出現激烈衝突的時期，比如當前的加沙危機，以色列仍然是美國軍事援助的最大接受國。

此外，聯合國承認巴勒斯坦是一個主權國家，將是增強巴勒斯坦國際合法性的關鍵一步。然而，美國繼續拒絕這一提議，堅持將其成員國資格與一項永久解決衝突的全面和平協議掛鉤。這更加說明美國在解決巴勒斯坦問題上的缺陷——尋求和平談判，但拒絕提供手段讓巴勒斯坦擁有更多談判實力。

哈馬斯和法塔赫在北京舉行會議，標誌着巴勒斯坦內部調解邁出了關鍵的第一步。此前，埃及、沙特阿拉伯和瑞士等國曾嘗試在兩派之間進行調解，但幾乎都沒有取得進展。這次中國作為調停人，情況會有所不同嗎？

中國參與的一個重要方面，體現在它對哈馬斯和法塔赫之間衝突的態度。長期以來，中國政府認為建設性的調解是解決中東安全問題的最佳途徑，而不是軍事聯盟或者軍事干預。通過重點加強巴勒斯坦作為獨立國家的地位，中國恪守不干涉和不結盟的原則。其促進巴勒斯坦各派之間團結的外交行動，為中國做出積極貢獻創造了獨特機會。

但是，中國決定參與哈馬斯和法塔赫之間的斡旋也體現出其務實的態度。由於以色列決心使用武力消滅哈馬斯，傳統的調解方法已經沒有多少空間。通過從巴勒斯坦方面入手，努力實現其內部團結，中國或許能夠找到一條更為可行的解決路徑。這反映出中國對複雜局勢的理解，以及另闢蹊徑實現和平的意願。

此外，中國參與哈馬斯和法塔赫的調解，將對巴以之間的力量再平衡產生重大影響。這不僅將加強巴勒斯坦的內部團結，使其在和以色列的談判中擁有更多籌碼，而且還將向國際社會發出信號，展示推動該地區的持久和平計劃的重要意義。

中國作為調解人參與雙方衝突的調解，也是其為構建更具包容性國際調解框架而採取的具體行動。目前的“四方會談”機製成立於21世紀初期，當時中國未被視作全球安全治理的主要參與者，所以沒有包括在內。然而，隨着它國際地位的提升及其在全球各項安全倡議的參與，中國現在完全有能力為解決世界各地的衝突發揮重要作用。

加沙衝突爆發以來，中國一直主張召開一次以巴勒斯坦問題為主題、涉及各方的國際和平會議。通過在哈馬斯和法塔赫之間積極斡旋，中國有可能為此類機制的建立鋪平道路。同時，這將使更多的不同觀點被納入討論，從而推動制定解決巴以長期衝突的方案。

況且，中國的地位獨特。作為正在崛起的全球大國，它在國際舞台上具有重要影響力，這有助於推動哈馬斯與法塔赫之間的和平。作為調解人，中國的整體影響力對於確保和平協議的可信度和推動談判期間必要的妥協都是至關重要的。憑藉此前在沙特阿拉伯和伊朗之間的成功調解，中國現在對巴勒斯坦境內兩個敵對派系擁有巨大的影響力。

此外，中國擁有廣泛的夥伴關係，這成為推動實現持久和平的重要基石。當前的加沙衝突中，美國主要同埃及和卡塔爾合作，以實現這些國家與以色列的和平。然而，美國可能不會被哈馬斯視作最佳調解者，因為它已將該組織列為恐怖組織。另一方面，中國在整個中東地區保持着廣泛的夥伴關係，這給各類反美組織吃了定心丸，也讓中國成為可靠的朋友。

當前的時機也非常合適。現在正是中國在加沙衝突斡旋中發揮積極影響力的大好時機。中國斡旋靠的是適逢其會的建設性接觸。最近，中國在沙特阿拉伯和伊朗之間的調解取得成功。當前，法塔赫和哈馬斯也表達了達成關係正常化協議的真誠意願。值得注意的是，一些衝突在某些時間點更有可能得到解決，調解文獻稱之為 “成熟的時機”。

巴勒斯坦內部和解的前景正在接近成熟時機。經過七個月的激烈戰爭，現在越來越清晰的是，統一將是巴勒斯坦捍衛其權利並獲得國際社會支持的唯一途徑。由此看來，中方在這個關鍵時刻的參與是及時的、恰當的。此外，其他有影響力的地區國家和國際組織也多次嘗試調解，這為中國未來的參與鋪平了道路。

隨着加沙衝突持續不斷，中美兩國必須相互支持，尋求最終解決方案。儘管兩國存在着緊張的地緣政治關係，但中東為兩國提供了尋找共識的機會。兩國都是該地區的重要合作夥伴，因此有可能建立一種互利關係。在中東地區，美國被視為安全夥伴，中國是可靠的發展夥伴。在巴勒斯坦問題上，兩國都致力於推動“兩國方案”。此外，兩國一致認為，中東的穩定與和平符合它們的最大利益。

美國曾多次嘗試軍事干預伊拉克、敘利亞和利比亞，但慘遭失敗。現在，美國應該承認軍事方案無法解決問題。它應該接受中國在法塔赫和哈馬斯之間進行調解的努力，將其視作為實現持久和平而做出的積極貢獻。持久和平需要重新平衡巴勒斯坦的地位，而中美兩國的共同努力將是成功實現這一目標的重要保證。

Chinese diplomat Wang Kejian met with Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Qatar on March 17, 2024. Hamas Media Office

At a historic gathering, representatives from the Palestine Liberation Organization and Hamas met in Beijing at the end of April for a conference focused on reconciling their internal differences. The conference proved to be a significant step forward, as progress was made toward future negotiations.

While it is not uncommon for the PLO and Hamas to engage in internal reconciliation talks, what set this instance apart was the involvement of a new mediator — China. It came after China's successful efforts to improve relations between the two factions. Moreover, recent rounds of negotiations between them in Palestine highlight China's increasing role in addressing security conflicts within the Middle East.

After nearly seven months of fierce and brutal battles in Gaza, it has become increasingly clear that the solution to the ongoing Palestine issue rests on a rebalancing of the power dynamics in the region through external mediation efforts. However, the current situation is caught in a dilemma, as external attempts to address the issue may only serve to stabilize the conflict rather than find a lasting resolution. The root cause of this problem lies in the imbalanced power structure between Israel and Palestine.

Since the Oslo agreement, there has been a worrisome trend of increasing weakness on the Palestinian side, compounded by internal divisions between Fatah and Hamas. This weakening further hinders the prospects for achieving peace. First, it makes negotiations more challenging as internal rivalries prevent consensus. Second, a weakened Palestine emboldens Israel's extremist wing to push for an egocentric and unilateral one-state solution.

Furthermore, the existing international mediation framework for the ongoing Palestine-Israel conflict fails to acknowledge and address the significant power imbalance between the two sides. Despite being a key player in the so-called Quartet, the United States has historically played a dominant role in mediating the dispute but it has consistently failed to address Palestine's weakened position. This is evident in U.S. support for a two-state solution while simultaneously allowing Israel to maintain its current dominance.

The American approach to peace seems to revolve around maintaining the status quo of Israel's power over Palestine, while disregarding any efforts to empower it. For example, while Palestine relies on humanitarian aid from the U.S., it is not provided with any means to strengthen its defensive capabilities against invasion. Meanwhile, Israel continues to be the top recipient of military aid from the U.S., even during times of intense conflict such as the recent Gaza crisis.

Moreover, a crucial step toward bolstering Palestine's international legitimacy would be recognition as a sovereign state by the United Nations. However, the United States continues to reject this proposal and insists on linking Palestinian membership to a comprehensive peace agreement that would permanently resolve the conflict. This further exposes the flawed approach of the U.S. towards the Palestine issue — seeking peace negotiations while simultaneously rejecting methods that would provide Palestine with greater bargaining power.

The meeting in Beijing between Hamas and Fatah marks a crucial first step toward internal mediation for Palestine. Despite previous attempts by countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Switzerland to mediate between the two factions, there has been little concrete progress. Could it be different this time with China playing the role of mediator?

One significant aspect of China's involvement is its approach to the conflict between Hamas and Fatah. The Chinese government has long believed that constructive mediation, rather than military alliances or intervention, is the best way to address security concerns in the Middle East. By choosing to focus on strengthening Palestine as an independent entity, China is staying true to its principles of noninterference and nonalignment. Its diplomatic move to promote unity among the Palestinian factions presents a unique opportunity to make a meaningful contribution.

But China's decision to involve itself in mediating between Hamas and Fatah also shows pragmatism. With Israel determined to use military force to eliminate Hamas, there is little room for traditional mediation methods. By starting from the Palestinian side and working toward internal unity, China may be able to find a more feasible path toward resolution. This demonstrates China's understanding of the complex dynamics at play and its willingness to think outside the box in pursuit of peace.

Further, China's involvement with both Hamas and Fatah in the Palestinian territories will have a significant impact on rebalancing power between Palestine and Israel. Not only will this strengthen the unity of Palestine, giving it more leverage in negotiations with Israel, but it will also signal to the global community that investing in a sustainable peace plan for the region is crucial.

China's participation as a mediator between these two conflicting parties also serves as a concrete step toward creating a more inclusive international mediation framework. The current Quartet, established in the early 2000s, did not include China as a major player in global security governance. However, with its increasing international stature and efforts in global security initiatives, China is now well-equipped to play an important role in resolving conflicts around the world.

Since the beginning of the Gaza conflict, China has advocated for an inclusive international peace conference specifically focused on the issue of Palestine. By actively mediating between Hamas and Fatah, China could potentially pave the way for the establishment of such a mechanism. This would allow for a more comprehensive and diverse range of perspectives to be included in discussions of a solution to the longstanding conflict

In addition, China holds a unique position. As a rising global power, it possesses significant influence on the international stage to broker peace between Palestine and Fatah. The mediator's overall impact is crucial in securing the credibility of any peace deal and facilitating necessary compromises during negotiations. With its successful mediation efforts between Saudi Arabia and Iran, China has substantial leverage over the two rival factions within Palestine.

Furthermore, China's extensive partnerships can serve as a vital cornerstone in achieving lasting peace. In the current conflict in Gaza, the U.S. has primarily worked with Egypt and Qatar to bring about peace with Israel. However, the U.S. may not be viewed as an optimal mediator for Hamas because the U.S. has designated the group as a terrorist organization. On the other hand, China maintains inclusive partnerships throughout the Middle East, which could provide reassurance to anti-U.S. organizations and establish China as a reliable friend.

The timing is also good. Now is an opportune moment for China to exert its positive influence through mediation in the Gaza conflict. Chinese mediation relies on constructive engagement at the right moment. With its recent success in mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran, China's involvement comes at a time when both sides are expressing sincere intentions to reach a normalization agreement. It is worth noting that some conflicts have more potential for resolution at certain points in time — known as “ripeness” in mediation literature.

The prospect of internal reconciliation within Palestine is reaching ripeness. After seven months of intense war in Gaza, it has become increasingly clear that a unified Palestine will be the only way to defend their rights and gain support from the international community. In light of this, China's participation at this critical juncture is timely and appropriate. Additionally, there have been multiple attempts by other influential regional and international players to mediate this issue, paving the way for future involvement by China.

Amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza, it is imperative that China and the United States support each other in finding a final solution. Despite their tense geopolitical relations, the Middle East presents an opportunity for both countries to discover common ground. With their respective roles as key partners in the region, there is potential for a mutually beneficial relationship between them. While the U.S. is seen as a security partner, China has established itself as a reliable development partner in the Middle East. With regard to the Palestine issue, both China and the U.S. are committed to a two-state solution. Furthermore, they share the belief that a stable and peaceful Middle East is in their best interests.

After multiple failed attempts at military intervention — in Iraq, Syria and Libya — it is time for the U.S. to acknowledge that a military solution cannot bring about a resolution. Instead, it should embrace China's effort to mediate between Fatah and Hamas as a positive contribution toward achieving lasting peace. A sustainable peace requires a rebalancing of Palestine's status; thus a combined effort from China and the United States would serve as an important guarantor of success.