過去幾十年，亞洲經濟增長比世界其他多數地區快，特別是隨着中國出現經濟“奇蹟”，全球政治經濟版圖結構出現有利於新興國家的變化。

根據IMF，按購買力平價（PPP）計算，當今世界四大經濟體是中國、美國、印度和日本，其中三個在亞洲。拉動經濟增長的是人口。到2025年，全球三分之一人口將居住在亞洲，美國和歐洲分別只佔5%、7%。美國參議院情報委員會2012年預測，到2030年，亞洲GDP、人口、軍事開支、科技投入等方面的“全球實力”將超過美國與歐洲的總和。亞洲的增長縮小了東西方貧富差距，推動全球治理從“西方治理”向“東西方共同治理”轉變。

就亞洲而言，區內貿易長期以來已經達到占對外貿易總額50%的基準線。區域經濟一體化獲得推動，而政治穩定和亞洲團結是關鍵。

但近年的地緣政治發展令人感到棘手。尤其美國，作為最有影響力的域外勢力，美國進入全球戰略收縮周期以後通過“亞太再平衡”“重返亞洲”，導致包括南海島礁之爭在內的地緣政治爭端加劇，使亞洲特別是東亞出現“碎片化”。“經濟增長依賴中國而安全依賴美國”這一奇特地區現象不斷延續。同時，在美國大力支持下，其日本、菲律賓等盟國膽敢直接挑戰中國在南海和東海的核心利益，製造地區緊張，破壞區域經濟一體化。

人們能想到的第一個亞洲分裂事例，顯然是南海爭端的國際化、政治化。菲律賓搞出來的政治鬧劇也許已經結束，但“後遺症”仍在，局勢仍高度緊張。沒有跡象顯示美國在南海的直接介入和武力威脅有所減少。

面對這一棘手問題只有兩個選擇：

第一，美國堅持它的“離岸平衡”政策並加緊挑釁，而菲律賓、越南和其他國家不斷突破底線。

第二，根據中國提出的“雙軌思路”重回政治談判。從目前形勢看，第二個選擇很難獲得動力。

另一個事例是地區戰略平衡被破壞，危險的軍備競賽已經開始。這方面有兩件事值得一提：首先是美國在東亞靠近中國領土的地方完成了反導系統部署，包括美韓最近決定在韓國領土部署配有先進“X波段雷達”的“薩德”，它給中國的核威懾能力造成威脅，從而打破了微妙且重要的地區戰略平衡。其次是由於日美軍事同盟更加緊密，日本通過軍事化和擺脫《和平憲法》與《雅爾塔協議》的束縛，尋求“正常大國”地位，導致中韓等鄰近國家的憂慮。

維持亞洲持續增長的團結目前正面臨“碎片化”（新加坡學者鄭永年稱之為“亞洲的中東化”）考驗和威脅。如果不加控制，亞洲的經濟增長與凝聚力將受到損害，這對亞洲和世界來說無疑是壞消息。

如果不加控制，亞洲的經濟增長與凝聚力將受到損害，這對亞洲和世界來說無疑是壞消息。

當然，亞洲積極的發展永遠多過消極。只要亞洲國家從自身根本利益出發，克服種種障礙，“碎片化”終會消失。眼下，各國至少應在以下領域立即採取行動：

第一，加快地區一體化，精簡各類自貿協定，展開亞太經濟組織（APEC）範圍內的自貿協定談判，為促進亞洲和世界經濟持續增長創造更好的貿易投資環境。

第二，努力維護地區戰略平衡，防止軍備競賽升級。美國在東亞中國周邊部署的反導系統無疑削弱了地區戰略平衡。明智的做法是美國及其盟國重新考慮並取消反導系統的部署，因為那最終也會損害它們的安全。必須認真儘快開展政治對話，讓有關各國走出地緣政治迷局。

第三，就南海、朝核和地區反恐問題展開外交對話與談判。如前所述，解決南海問題的最好方法肯定是當事國之間的“雙軌”談判與對話。這是解決爭議、避免衝突的唯一可行方法。在朝鮮半島核問題上，儘快重啟政治談判極為重要，因為已經不起拖延。在反恐問題上，地區合作對各方都有利，它還可以增加目前極度缺乏的戰略互信。

亞洲以文化多樣著稱，自古以來各國就有自己的核心價值觀。最近幾十年，中國的和平與飛速發展為地區經濟增長和一體化作出巨大貢獻。我們必須用歷史眼光看待今天發生的事情。“碎片化”是暫時的，亞洲的團結與共同發展將永遠是這一地區的鮮明標誌。

The last few decades have witnessed the economy in Asia growing at a faster pace than in most regions in the world, especially with China's economic “miracle”, making it possible for the global political and economic landscape to shift tectonically in favor of emerging nations.

According to the IMF, based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), the biggest four economies in the world today are China, the US, India and Japan. Three are in Asia. What drives economic growth is population. By 2025, three-quarters of the world's population will live in Asia, while the US and Europe will account for only 5% and 7% respectively. In 2012, the US Senate Intelligence Committee forecast that by 2030 Asia will surpass the US and Europe combined in terms of “global strength” indexed in GDP, population, military expenditure and technological input. The growth in Asia has contributed to narrowing the gap in wealth between East and West, which in turn has moved global governance from “West domination” to “sharing of power between East and West”.

As far as Asia is concerned, intra-regional trade has long reached the benchmark of 50% of its total external trade, and regional economic integration has gained traction for which political stability and Asian unity is the key.

However, troublesome geopolitical developments have emerged in recent years. Notably the US, as the most influential external power, has engaged in its “Pivot to Asia” with “Asia-Pacific rebalancing” while entering periodic strategic retrenchment worldwide. As a result, geopolitical tussles including disputes on islands and reefs in the South China Sea have intensified, creating “fragmentation” of Asia and East Asia in particular. The strange regional phenomenon of assuming that “economic growth relies on China while security depends on the US” continues. Moreover, with strong American support, its allies like Japan and the Philippines have been emboldened enough to directly challenge the core interests of China in the South China Sea and East China Sea, driving up the tension in the region and disrupting regional economic integration.

The first case that comes to mind about Asia fragmentation is obviously the internationalization and politicization of South China Sea disputes. The political farce staged by the Philippines might be over, but its “hangover” remains and tensions are still high. American direct involvement and saber-rattling in the South China Sea has shown no signs of receding.

There are only two options on this tricky issue:

1. Confrontational with continued “off-shore balance” by the US as the Philippines, Vietnam and others will persist in pushing the envelope.

2. A return to political negotiation, adopting the “dual track” approach as suggested by China. In view of the current circumstances, the second option will not easily gain momentum.

Another case is regional strategic balance, which is now being undermined and a dangerous arms race is under way. In this connection, there are two things worth mentioning: First, the US is completing its deployment of missile defense systems (MDS) close to Chinese territory in East Asia, including the most recent decision by the US and ROK to deploy the THAAD system with advanced X-band radar on ROK soil, which poses a threat to China's nuclear deterrence capability, thus breaking the delicate and important regional strategic balance. Second, with a closer Japan-US military alliance, Japan is pursuing “normal big-power” status through militarization and loosening the constraints of its Peace Constitution and Yalta arrangements, which worries its neighbors including China and the ROK.

Asian unity sustaining its continuous growth is now being tested and threatened by “fragmentation” (described by Zheng Yongnian of Singapore as “Mid-Easternization of Asia”). If unchecked, Asia's economic growth and cohesion could be compromised which is undoubtedly bad news to Asia and to the world at large.

If unchecked, Asia's economic growth and cohesion could be compromised which is undoubtedly bad news to Asia and to the world at large.

Needless to say, positive developments in Asia always outweigh negative ones. As long as Asian nations proceed from their fundamental interests and overcome various obstacles, the “fragmentation” will fade away eventually. At present, they should focus on the following areas inter alia for immediate action:

1. To speed up regional integration by streamlining all sorts of FTAs and start negotiation on an APEC-wide FTA with a view to creating a better environment for trade and investment for the benefit of promoting sustained economic growth both in Asia and the world.

2. To make strenuous efforts to maintain regional strategic balance and prevent further arms race. American deployment of missile-defense systems surrounding China in East Asia no doubt undercuts strategic balance in the region. It would be wise for the US and its allies to reconsider and rescind that deployment, because in the end it will also hurt their security. Political dialogue needs to begin for real and with urgency to walk countries concerned through the zigzags of geo-political landscape.

3. To start diplomatic dialogue and negotiation on the issues of the South China Sea, the nuclear problem of the Korean Peninsula and regional counter-terrorism. As I put it above, the best approach to the South China Sea is certainly the “dual track” negotiation and dialogue between and among parties. This is the only viable way to settle the disputes and avoid possible confrontation. On the Peninsular nuclear issue, it is of utmost importance to restart political negotiation as soon as possible. It cannot afford further delay. On counterterrorism, regional cooperation will benefit all parties and increase strategic trust that is sorely lacking.

Asia is famous for its multiple civilizations and their core value systems that have guided Asian nations since ancient times. Recent decades have seen China making great contributions to regional economic growth and unity with its peaceful and rapid development. We need to take a historic view of what is happening today. “Fragmentation” is something that is temporary while Asian unity and common development will always be the hallmark of this great region.