中國有句俗話叫“事不過三”，多指壞事不可做多了，否則多行不義必自斃。可朝鮮在2016年1月6日又進行了其第四次核試驗，還自稱是“氫彈”試驗成功。不僅如此，朝鮮緊接着在農曆新年前夕，也就是除夕，運用彈道導彈技術發射衛星。朝鮮無視中國忠告，罔顧年節，堪稱不仁不義。而其一再公然違反聯合國安理會決議，又可謂冒天下之大不韙。安理會也因此正在加緊醞釀“最嚴厲的”對朝制裁決議。

朝鮮反覆折騰與“搗蛋”，特別是迫不及待地推進核導彈化，引發四鄰不安，招致美、日、韓三國強烈反彈，導致半島乃至東北亞再度緊張，也對中國的東北邊境安寧和國家安全利益構成嚴峻挑戰。對此，中國應儘快調整相關政策，多管齊下，多方周旋，剛柔並濟，以重新贏得半島問題戰略主動權。

首先，中國制定半島政策應主要依據兩大標準，一是有效維護自身國家利益，堅持反核、反戰、反亂；二是承擔維護地區和平穩定的大國責任。為此既要維護半島和平穩定，反對單方面挑釁和生戰、生亂，尤其反對朝鮮動輒叫囂的核戰爭；又要致力於無核化，迫使朝鮮信守棄核承諾。對此，王毅外長近日指出了中國處理半島事務的“三點堅持”：第一，半島不能有核，無論是北方還是南方，無論是自己製造，還是引進部署；第二，不能用武力解決問題；第三，中國自身的正當國家安全利益必須得到有效維護和保障。

其次，中國對朝鮮的政策應與時俱進，做到有理、有利、有力。當務之急是協同國際社會對朝實施精確、精準制裁，包括金融限制、防擴散、反走私等，同時也要盡量避免制裁對朝鮮民眾的日常生活和社會穩定造成大的影響。對此王毅外長明確指出，安理會可通過新決議和採取進一步措施，使朝為其行為“付出必要代價、承擔相應後果”，制裁的目的是“有效阻遏朝進一步推進核導計劃”，並藉此將半島核問題最終拉回到談判解決的軌道。他表示中方一方面支持安理會通過一個新的制裁決議，一方面爭取儘快重啟六方會談。

從長遠來看，中國還應儘早實現中朝關係的正常化，也就是把中朝關係轉變為正常的國與國關係，而不再糾纏與糾結於子虛烏有的“盟友關係”或所謂的“特殊關係”。為此應進一步淡化中朝關係中的意識形態因素，雙方彼此的權利與義務應對等均衡。對於朝鮮反覆無常、不負責任乃至威脅地區和平穩定的錯誤行徑，中國應義正辭嚴地說“不”，不姑息、不縱容、不袒護，當管則管，有效節制。在此基礎上，中國應敦促、引導、協助朝鮮走改革開放與和平發展道路，也就是走發展經濟與改善民生的正道。

再次，中國應敦促美國與中國相向而行，發揮建設性而非破壞性作用。對於當前朝鮮半島的緊張局勢，一意孤行、逞能鬥狠、窮兵黷武的朝鮮固然負有不可推卸的責任，而奧巴馬政府一味敵視、對抗施壓、孤立冷落的對朝政策亦難辭其咎。奧巴馬所謂的對朝“戰略忍耐”實質是逃避責任，這一僵化、無能的政策業已失敗，美國需要儘快改變對朝政策。這包括以下三點：

一是調整對抗思維，與朝進行接觸；二是直面問題與承擔相應責任。半島與朝核問題由來已久，其主要矛盾是北南矛盾與美朝對立，對立的雙方是朝鮮與美韓，中國並非矛盾的直接當事方，中國的責任並不比美國大，中國也敦促並樂見美朝雙方能坐下來談，探討如何解決彼此合理關切；三是美國不得渾水摸魚、趁火打劫，在反導問題上謀取私利，損害中國的戰略威懾與安全利益。項莊舞劍，意在沛公。美國眼下正企圖趁機在韓國部署“薩德”反導系統，該系統的覆蓋範圍特別是其X波段雷達監測範圍遠超半島防衛需求，深入亞洲大陸腹地，這將直接損害中國的戰略安全利益，中國對此也決不會坐視。

最後但並非不重要的一點是，中國還應針對半島問題大力強化危機管理，充分預防半島生戰、生亂。

A common saying in Chinese goes: Never do the same thing more than three times. It usually refers to bad deeds and indicates self-destruction of evildoers. Yet the DPRK conducted its fourth nuclear test on Jan. 6 and described it as a successful hydrogen bomb test. What's more, the DPRK used ballistic missile technology to launch a satellite on the day of the Chinese New Year's Eve. Such moves, in total disregard of China's warnings, are neither virtuous nor righteous. In so doing, the country also repeatedly and blatantly violated UN Security Council Resolutions in defiance of world opinion. The UNSC is therefore busy deliberating 'the toughest' sanctions against the DPRK.

The repeated trouble-making moves by the DPRK, the rush toward combining a nuclear bomb with missiles in particular, has deeply disturbed its neighbors, evoking strong reactions from the US, Japan and the ROK, igniting tension on the Peninsula and in Northeast Asia and posing a severe challenge to the tranquility along China's northeast border and its national security interests. In this connection, China should readjust its policies as soon as possible, work along different lines and with all relevant parties and combine tough and flexible measure as to regain the strategic initiative on questions related to the Korean Peninsula.

First, Chinese policies towards the Korean Peninsula should be based on two points. The first is to effectively safeguard its own national interests and firmly oppose nuclear weapons, war and chaos. The second is to undertake the responsibility of a major country to safeguard regional peace and stability. To this end, China needs to safeguard Peninsula peace and stability and oppose unilateral provocation or war- or trouble-making moves, Pyongyang's clamor of nuclear war in particular. It also needs to remain committed to denuclearization and force the DPRK to honor its commitment to abandon nuclear program. In this connection, Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently pointed out that in Peninsula affairs, China insists on three points: There should not be nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula, whether in the North or the South, whether manufactured, imported or deployed there; force must not be used; and legitimate national security interests of China must be effectively maintained and protected.

Second, Chinese policies towards the DPRK should keep pace with the times and be reasonable, beneficial and strong.The top priority is to coordinate the international community to have accurate and precise sanctions against Pyongyang, including financial restraint, non-proliferation and counter-smuggling measures. At the same time, attention should be given to avoid a major impact on the daily life of the people or social stability in the country. In this regard, Foreign Minister Wang made it clear that the UN Security Council may adopt a new resolution and take further measures for the DPRK to 'pay the necessary price and take corresponding consequences' and that the purpose of sanctions is to 'effectively prevent DPRK from further advancing its nuclear and missile programs' and take the nuclear issue back to the track of negotiation. He said that the Chinese side supports a new UNSC sanctions resolution while working for resumption of the Six-Party Talks at an early date.

From a long-term perspective, China should achieve 'normalization' of its relations with the DPRK as soon as possible. In other words, the China-DPRK relationship should become a normal state-to-state relationship rather than the fictitious 'alliance' or so-called 'special relationship'. In this connection, ideological factors in the relationship should be further diluted and rights and obligations in the relationship should become more reciprocal and balanced. China should categorically say 'No' to DPRK's capricious, irresponsible and wrong behaviors, especially those moves endangering regional peace and stability. Rather, it should take effective measures to contain those moves. On this basis, China should also urge, steer and assist the DPRK to reform, open up and pursue peaceful development, which is the right way of economic development and improvement of people's livelihood.

Furthermore, China should urge the US to try meeting China halfway and play a constructive rather than destructive role.Although the DPRK is admittedly inescapably responsible for the current tension on the Korean Peninsula, the Obama administration's stubbornly hostile policies to confront, pressure and isolate the DPRK is also culpable. The so-called 'strategic forbearance' is in nature to shirk responsibility. This rigid and useless policy has already failed. The US should change as soon as possible its policies towards DPRK in three aspects.

The first is to change the confrontational mentality and engage the DPRK. The second is to face the problem squarely and undertake due responsibilities. The DPRK nuclear issue has been there for a long time, fueled by the North-South divide and US-DPRK antagonism. The parties opposite each other are DPRK on one side and US and ROK on the other. China is not a party directly involved in the dispute and China's responsibility is in no way greater than that of the US. China urges and will be happy to see that the US and DPRK sit down, talk to each other and explore how each other's reasonable concerns could be addressed. The third is to avoid fishing in troubled waters by pursuing selfish interests on the question of missile defense at the expense of China's strategic deterrence and strategic interests. The US is now attempting to deploy in the ROK the THAAD systems, the coverage of which is far beyond what is necessary for Peninsula defense. THAAD's X-Band Radar will cover vast areas of the Asian continent, being directly detrimental to China's strategic security interests. Certainly on this matter China will not sit by.

Last but not the least, China should also redouble efforts to strengthen crisis management and make full preparations for war or a chaotic situation on the Korean Peninsula.