對於今年金磚輪值主席國巴西來說，國際形勢最大的變量和挑戰莫過於特朗普顛覆國際社會認知的“常識革命”。弔詭之處在於，大幅“內顧”而對聯手盟友領導全球自由秩序興趣寡然的特朗普，卻對金磚引領全球南方構建多極世界耿耿於懷，特朗普多次威脅要嚴懲金磚國家任何“去美元化”的合作。在此國際政治新生態下，金磚東道主巴西能否頂住壓力順利推進“大金磚合作”的各項議程備受國際社會關注。

看點一：是否還會有眾多國家奔赴金磚，土耳其能否步印尼後塵加入金磚。

近年來，多達30多個國家爭相申請加入金磚，為了滿足這些國家的願望，金磚喀山峰會後，媒體公布了第一批“金磚夥伴國”名單，包括土耳其在內的13個亞非拉國家入圍，但是，具體國家並沒有立即公布，原因在於汲取了既往公布後出現諸多尷尬的教訓。因此，現已公布的“金磚夥伴國”均是它們走完國內程序後才發出確認函。其中，剛剛成為金磚夥伴國的印尼不久就被宣布為正式成員國。在特朗普恫嚇金磚合作的情形下，一些入圍國家在走國內程序時也許會遭遇更大阻力，一些國家對於加入金磚可能會望而卻步。當然，也會有一些國家迎難而上。

就地緣政治重要性和國際影響力而言，土耳其的含金量並不遜於印尼，它不僅具有橫跨歐亞大陸的特殊地理位置，而且在中東地緣政治博弈中扮演獨特的地區大國角色。

不過，國際社會也注意到，土耳其加入金磚的態度並非堅定如一，相關表態也含糊矛盾，且朝野分歧較大。因此，在特朗普多次放話打壓金磚後，土耳其、越南等國能否加入金磚，是“金磚巴西年”擴員進程中的懸念和看點。

看點二：“金磚支付體系”能否取得突破。

俄羅斯做東金磚期間，孜孜以求創建名為“金磚之橋”的支付體系，取得了一定進展，成員國領導人在喀山峰會上肯定了“高效、透明、包容的跨境支付體系具有廣泛益處。”但是，由於成員國存在各種技術性、政策性障礙和分歧，金磚支付體系並未取得突破性成就。為此，在喀山峰會上，成員國領導人決定，在“金磚支付體系工作組”的指導下，授權金磚國家財長和央行行長適時繼續研究本幣合作、支付工具和平台，並於巴西擔任金磚主席國期間內提交研究報告。無論是創建金磚支付體系，還是成員國加大貿易本幣支付力度，在以“美元之上”“利潤之上”為圭臬的特朗普看來，都是“去美元化”的冒犯舉動，勢必招致其零容忍報復。如此重壓下，金磚支付體系獲得突破並非易事，東道主巴西既要展現彌合成員國分歧的協調能力，更要展現直面外部壓力的智慧和勇氣。

看點三：新開發銀行是否會恢復對俄羅斯的業務，俄是否會讓出行長任期，普京是否會出席巴西金磚峰會。

俄烏衝突以來，為避免制裁，金磚“金字招牌”新開發銀行暫停對俄業務，俄一直努力推動新開行恢復對其業務。2025年7月，按新開行行長輪值制度安排，應由俄羅斯人接替現任行長羅塞夫的職務，但俄財政金融高官大多被西方制裁。媒體報道稱，俄已與巴西達成協議，同意延長羅塞夫的任期。俄的讓步應是一項多贏的決定，有利於新開行更好融入國際金融主流體系。此外，在俄美關係轉圜、俄外部環境趨緩的情勢下，普京是否會出席7月6日在巴西里約召開的金磚峰會也是媒體聚焦話題。若能出席，則是普京近年來首次現身境外金磚峰會。

“金磚巴西年”不僅有上述看點和懸念，還有如下難點需要東道主攻克。

難點一：東道主如何處理與特朗普的關係。

巴西總統盧拉與特朗普關係並不和睦。其一，盧拉的政敵、前總統博索納羅是特朗普的摯友，號稱“南美特朗普”。其二，盧拉“去美元化”的言論令特朗普頗為不爽。最近盧拉直接喊話特朗普立即停止挑釁和施壓，聲稱“沒有人可以一直虛張聲勢，一直發出威脅”。三是盧拉鍾情的“氣候變化”令特朗普嗤之以鼻。儘管盧拉不滿特朗普的特立獨行和頤指氣使，但是，盧拉若要辦好金磚峰會和世界氣候變化大會兩場盛會，還需妥處與美關係，畢竟作為巴西第一大投資國，美國因素在巴西國會、軍隊、企業中有着廣泛影響。

難點二：擴員後，協商一致的原則如何適應快速變化的國際形勢。

為了避免七國集團由美國一家說了算的弊端，金磚創建伊始便實施“協商一致”的決策機制，成員國無論實力強弱、加入時間長短，在金磚事務上均享有平等權利，這意味着只要有一個成員國不同意，相關事項就無法推進。然而，隨着金磚成員國不斷增加以及合作領域的全方位展開，這種展現平等的一票否決制的不足也凸顯無遺，聯合國安理會一票否決制帶來的失能和低效同樣也會出現在金磚身上。因此，在國際形勢快速演變的情勢下，如何處理協商一致的平等性與金磚行動高效性之間的關係，成為金磚機制建設繞不開的荊棘難題。

概而言之，“金磚巴西年”適逢美國開啟特朗普2.0時代，盧拉將人工智能、本幣結算、多極化等列為金磚優先議程，金磚機制建設與特朗普新政產生利益碰撞難以避免。挑戰中孕育機遇，特朗普向世界無差別揮舞關稅大棒以及抽身全球自由秩序，為金磚國家構建全球南方合作平台和國際議事新中心帶來難得契機。

For Brazil, the BRICS chair this year, the most daunting challenge is U.S. President Donald Trump's so-called “common sense revolution,” which practically upends international norms. The irony is that Trump, who is preoccupied with domestic issues and has scant interest in steering the global order with U.S. allies, turns out to be quite upset with the BRICS effort to lead the Global South in building a multipolar world. He has repeatedly threatened to punish any BRICS cooperation that moves toward “de-dollarization.” Amid this new international political landscape, Brazil's ability to withstand the pressure and advance the agenda to expand BRICS cooperation is under much scrutiny.

1. Are prospective aspirants keen to join the BRICS grouping, and will Turkey follow in Indonesia's footsteps?

In recent years, more than 30 countries have sought to join BRICS. To accommodate their aspirations, the first group of “BRICS partner countries” was released after the Kazan Summit, featuring 13 countries from Asia, Africa and Latin America, including Turkey.Not all the names were immediately disclosed to avoid backlash in the wake of premature announcements, as happened in the past. Now, a country is confirmed as a BRICS partner only after completing its domestic procedures and sending a confirmation letter. For example, Indonesia was recently admitted as a partner and swiftly upgraded to full membership.Amid Trump's threats to BRICS cooperation, some countries may face significant domestic pushback, causing them to hesitate. Others will likely forge ahead regardless.

In terms of geopolitical importance and international influence, Turkey is no less significant than Indonesia. Its unique position straddling the Eurasian continent, combined with its distinctive role in the geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East, underscores its value as a regional power.

However, Turkey's stance on joining BRICS remains inconsistent, marked by ambiguous statements and significant divisions between the government and the opposition.Against this backdrop, following Trump's repeated attempts to undermine the BRICS, whether or not countries such as Turkey and Vietnam will join still hangs in the balance and weighs on the BRICS expansion process during the BRICS Brazil Year.

2. Can the BRICS payment system achieve a breakthrough?

During its BRICS presidency, Russia actively promoted the creation of a new payment system called the BRICS Bridge and has made some progress. At the Kazan summit, BRICS leaders recognized the extensive benefits of an “efficient, transparent and inclusive cross-border payment system.” However, because of technical and policy barriers, as well as differences between member countries, the BRICS payment system has yet to achieve a breakthrough.The leaders decided at the Kazan summit to authorize BRICS finance ministers and central bank governors to continue studying local currency cooperation, payment instruments and platforms under the guidance of the BRICS payment system working group. They will submit research reports during Brazil's tenure as BRICS chair.Trump regards both the creation of the BRICS payment system and the increased use of local currencies in trade by member countries as provocative — moves toward “de-dollarization.” These actions clash with his stance of prioritizing the dollar and profits above all else and thus are certain to provoke Trump's zero-tolerance retaliation.Under such immense pressure, achieving a breakthrough in the BRICS payment system is no easy task. As host, Brazil must not only mediate differences between member countries but also demonstrate wisdom and courage to address external pressures.

3. Will Russia extend the term of the current NDB president? Will Putin attend the BRICS summit in Brazil?

Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the National Development Bank has suspended its Russia operations to avoid sanctions. Russia has been pushing for a resumption. Under the NDB's rotating presidency, a Russian was due to succeed current President Dilma Rousseff in July 2025. However, most Russian financial officials are under Western sanctions. Media reports indicate that Russia has agreed with Brazil to extend Rousseff's term, a concession seen as a win-win move that helps the NDB better integrate into the global financial mainstream.Additionally, thanks to improved Russian-American relations and a more favorable external environment, President Vladimir Putin's possible attendance at the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro on July 6 is being closely watched by the media. If it happens, it would mark his first overseas BRICS summit in recent years.

Beyond these new developments and uncertainties, the BRICS Brazil Year also presents several challenges for the host to address.

Challenge 1: How will the host navigate its relationship with Trump?

First, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has a fraught relationship with Trump. Jair Bolsonaro, Lula's political rival and former president, is a close ally of Trump and is often dubbed the Trump of South America. Second, Lula's advocacy for de-dollarization has irked Trump. Recently, Lula directly called on Trump to cease provocations and threats, protesting that no one can keep bluffing and throwing threats around indefinitely. Third, Trump dismisses Lula's climate change advocacy. Despite Lula's frustration with Trump's unilateralism and domineering behavior, he needs to manage the relationship with the U.S. effectively if he wants to successfully host the BRICS summit and the World Climate Change Conference. After all, as Brazil's largest foreign investor, the United States wields significant influence in Brazil's Congress, military and business community.

Challenge 2: How can the principle of consensus adapt to the rapidly changing international landscape after BRICS expansion?

To avoid the pitfalls of the G7, where the U.S. dominates decision-making, BRICS has adopted a consensus-based mechanism. This ensures that all member states, regardless of size or strength, have equal say in BRICS affairs. Essentially, any member can veto a proposal, preventing it from moving forward.But as BRICS expands and cooperation broadens, the drawbacks of this veto power — similar to those in the UN Security Council — has become more evident, potentially leading to inefficiency and stagnation. Thus, balancing consensus-based equality with BRICS operational efficiency has become an inherent challenge for BRICS institutional development.

In summary, the BRICS Brazil Year coincides with the launch of the Trump 2.0 era. Lula has prioritized artificial intelligence, local currency settlements and multipolarity on the BRICS agenda. Inevitably, BRICS institutional development will clash with Trump's new policies.Yet, these challenges may generate opportunity. Trump's indiscriminate tariffs and withdrawal from the global liberal order provide BRICS countries with a rare chance to build a cooperation platform for the Global South and a new center for international discourse.