在信息社會化和大眾對即時新聞熱情高漲的時代，對當選總統唐納德·特朗普的許多評論似乎都集中在他的團隊建設和政策制定上。這些很重要，但中國不應該隨着特朗普的調子起舞，而是應該尋找主動塑造、主動創新和可能的替代方案。因此，為維護世界和平與繁榮，尤其是維護穩定而雙贏的中美關係，我想向當選總統特朗普提出以下五點建議：

首先，當選總統特朗普應該順應時代潮流，而非逆向而行。美國與其他主要大國之間的權力重置是當今最重要的動向。以史為鑒，可以讓我們更好地看清未來。21世紀初恰逢小布殊當政，他在阿富汗和伊拉克的兩場戰爭極大削弱了美國的一超地位。儘管美國相對衰落將是一個漫長過程，甚至會有局部反彈和回升，但無論使用傳統還是非傳統手段，歷史的趨勢都無法逆轉。而且，美國作為守成大國，不能躺在往日的輝煌上指責其他趕上並超過它的國家。事實上，當選總統特朗普必須用無情的現實來衡量他的國家。故此美國應該以前瞻思維遵循全球化進程，把握住經濟和科技發展的高端領域。

其次，當選總統特朗普應該真正了解自己的使命和局限。在這次大選中，美國選民希望特朗普先生可以帶領國家擺脫眼下的挫折和困難。廣大民眾要求通過強有力的領導，徹底扭轉日益惡化的局勢，即使這意味着他們不得不接受一個非常規的政府。然而，儘管他們授權進行激烈和根本性變革，美國人民卻並沒有為魯莽而草率的戰略和政策開綠燈。當選總統特朗普應當充分了解自己的局限。作為一個國家，美國總體是由既有憲法和機構管理，對於其中的絕大部分總統只能遵循，不能推翻。作為總統，特朗普先生必須讓自己從商人變成“政治家”。一個紐約的商人與一個華盛頓的政治家是截然不同的。只有商人的DNA，遠不足以成為一個稱職的、成功的美國總統。

第三，當選總統特朗普應該學會處理錯綜複雜的國際事務。魔鬼在細節當中。對當選總統特朗普來說，在學習曲線的初段，謹慎處理外交政策可能更為安全。至少，他必須避免涉入以下三個危險水域。一是不能沉溺於簡單化和情緒化。推特的確助他贏了這次大選，但它不會帶來成功的外交政策。二是不能以單邊主義取代多邊主義。當選總統特朗普威脅退出巴黎氣候變化協議、伊朗核協議和北美自由貿易協議等。而在對聯合國、核不擴散協定和全面禁止核試驗條約的處理上，小布殊總統曾經付出高昂代價。三是不能把他所有的非常規決策都等同於重要的制度性革命。美國的確需要徹底變革國家機構，但這些變革應該精心設計，謹慎實施。

第四，當選總統特朗普應該在對華戰略政策上有一個整體構想。美國和中國對維護世界和平與發展負有特殊責任。唯有將中美關係置於全球和地區背景下，當選總統特朗普的對華政策才能是互惠互利的。因此，在制定對華戰略和指示對華政策的時候，當選總統必須考慮所有的可能性，尤其是在這一政策形成的時期。他與蔡英文通話，嚴重違背了尼克松以來連續八屆美國政府的“一個中國”政策。同理，他對中國的草率評論也引起嚴重關注，造成了不確定性。事實上，讓美國再次偉大要從國內做起，一味在外面尋找替罪羊是沒有出路的。當選總統特朗普把美國大部分經濟問題歸咎於中國實在是選錯了對象。

最後同樣重要的是，當選總統特朗普應該區分地緣戰略承諾與經濟參與。有鑒於美國不得不採取地緣戰略和地緣政治收縮的事實，當選總統特朗普必須明白，反經濟全球化會適得其反。在全球化方面，絕大多數國家都認為它不可避免，這些國家都將順應歷史趨勢。當選總統特朗普可以說服一些美國企業家留在國內，但他無法撕毀所有市場規則。在全球和區域治理方面，如果美國置身事外，則會失去更多。亞投行就是一個很好的例子。奧巴馬總統作出不加入亞投行的錯誤決定，後來追悔莫及。甚至對於中國所謂的操縱匯率，《華爾街時報》的評論建議：“特朗普說他上任後將很快宣布中國是匯率操縱國，因為它使人民幣對美元貶值。他也許要重新考慮這個問題了。”

我的所有上述建議既是出於好意，也是希望雙方共贏。中國認為，合作是中美關係唯一正確的選擇。根據中國的一貫思維與做法，中國行事克制，會給特朗普總統更多時間了解中美關係的重要性並加以實踐。但國內外的形勢發展不會等待太久，當選總統特朗普必須正確了解以建設性方式處理美中關係的緊迫性。

At the time of socialized information and popular zeal for immediate news, many comments about President-elect Donald Trump seem to focus on his team-building and policy formulation. Important as they are, the Chinese should not dance to Mr. Trump's tune but look for proactive shaping, creative initiatives and possible alternatives. Therefore, I would like to give the following five pieces of advices to President-elect Trump for maintaining peace and prosperity of the world in general and stable, win-win China-US relations in particular..

First of all, President-elect Trump should move along with instead of against the trends of our times. The re-configuration of powers between the United States and the other major players is one of today's most significant developments. History is a mirror that could help us to see the future more clearly. The beginning of the 21st century coincided with the presidency of George W. Bush, whose two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq greatly weakened the United States' status as the world's sole superpower. Although the US' relative decline will be long and even feature some partial resilience and reversion, historical trends cannot be turned back, whether by conventional or unconventional approaches. Moreover, the US as an established power cannot sleep on its glorious past by blaming others who are catching up and overtaking it. Indeed, President-elect Trump has to gauge his country by the hard truth of the realities. Therefore, the United States needs to follow the globalization path with forward-looking thoughts and holding the high-end of economic and scientific developments.

Second, President-elect Trump should truly understand his mandate and know his limits. During the past election, the American voters wished that Mr. Trump could lead the country out of the present debacles and difficulties. The broad masses demanded radical changes of the deteriorating situation through strong leadership, even it means that they have to accept an unconventional administration. However, while giving a mandate for drastic and fundamental changes, the American people are not giving the green light to rash and careless strategies and policies. President-elect Trump should know fully his limits. As a country, the United States is generally governed by its established constitution and institutions, most of which the president cannot deny but follow. As the president, Mr. Trump has to turn himself from a businessman to a “statesman”. A businessman in New York City is very different from a statesman in Washington, DC. The businessman's DNA alone is far from enough for a competent and successful president of the United States.

Third, President-elect Trump should learn to deal with intricate and complex global affairs. The devil is in the details. At the beginning of his learning curve, it would be safer for President-elect Trump to be prudent in the actual handling of foreign policies. At the least, he needs to avoid wading into the following three troubled waters. One is not to be addicted to oversimplification and emotionalization. Twitters did help him win the election, but it would not lead to successful foreign policies. Two is not to replace multilateralism with unilateralism. President-elect Trump threatens withdrawals from the Climate Change Paris Agreement, Iran Nuclear Agreement and the North American Free Trade Agreement, among others. President George W. Bush paid dearly for his approaches towards the United Nations, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Three is not to equate all of his unconventional decision-making to the essential institutional revolution. It is true that the United States needs revolutions in state apparatus. However, these revolutions should be well-designed and carefully-executed.

Fourth, President-elect Trump should have integrated thoughts on its strategy and policy towards China. The United States and China carry on special responsibilities of maintaining peace and development of the world. Only putting China-US relations in the global and regional context, can President-elect Trump's China policy be mutually beneficiary. Therefore, when formulating China strategy and directing China policy, President-elect must factor in all the possible. It is extremely so at this policy-forming period. His phone talk with Ms. Tsai Ing-wen is a serious breach of the One-China Policy by eight consecutive US administrations since President Nixon. In the same vein, his rash comments on China have also caused grave concerns and invoked uncertainties. As a matter of fact, to make America great again starts from home and will lead to nowhere if focusing on outside scapegoats. Indeed, President-elect Trump is barking up the wrong tree when he attributes most of America's economic problems to China.

Last but not least, President-elect Trump should differentiate geo-strategic commitments and economic engagements. Given the fact that the United States has to adopt geo-strategic and geo-political retrenchments, President-elect Trump must realize that counter-economic-globalization is counterproductive. In terms of globalization, most countries believe that globalization is inevitable and they will move along with the historical trends. President-elect Trump could persuade some American enterprises to stay at home but he will not be able to tear up all market rules. In terms of global and regional governance, the United States will lose much more by staying out than in. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is a good case in point. President Obama made a wrong decision not to join the AIIB and had to regret it later on. Even regarding China's so-called currency manipulation, the Wall Street Journal's comment advises him: “Donald Trump says he'll declare soon after he takes office that China is a currency manipulator because it is devaluing the yuan against the dollar. He may want to rethink that.”[1]

All the aforementioned advice points of mine are both well-intentioned and win-win oriented. China believes that cooperation is the only correct choice for China-US relations. With its usual thinking and practice, China exercises self-restraints and gives more time to President Trump to learn the importance of China-US relations and practice accordingly. However, the internal and external developments will not wait too long. Therefore, President-elect Trump must truly realize the urgency of managing US-China relations in a constructive manner.

[1] http://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-chinese-currency-manipulation-1481155139?utm_source=Media+Action+Report+December+8%2C+2016&utm_campaign=Media+Action+Report&utm_medium=email