目前，國際組織機構對中國經濟走勢的預測都是一路走低。如IMF預測2023-2025年中國經濟增長率分別是5.2%、4.6%、4.2%，其假定是中國有效需求不足、內生動力不足、宏觀政策加力不足。然而，中國經濟更大的可能是逆勢而上，走出一條新趨勢線，即今明兩年增長率分別達到5%左右、5%以上，擺脫新冠疫情影響，回歸經濟運行合理區間。

李強總理在2024年《政府工作報告》中提出，今年中國一般公共預算支出規模28.5萬億元，比上年增加1.1萬億元。同時，為系統解決一些重大項目建設資金問題，從今年開始擬連續幾年發行超長期特別國債，今年先發行１萬億元；貨幣政策將保持流動性合理充裕；各地區各部門要多出有利於穩預期、穩增長、穩就業的政策，增強宏觀政策取向一致性。

可以預期，2024年中國政府將出台一攬子政策組合，其目的不是刺激經濟，而是問題導向，全面系統解決“高質量發展是硬道理，堅持經濟建設為中心”所面對的各種體制、結構和總量發展的矛盾和問題。在短期，重點是解決總有效需求不足問題，實現經濟穩定增長；在中期，重點是穩定房地產市場等大宗消費品，促進結構調整和供給側改革；在長期，重點是發展以創新為核心、以質優為關鍵、以提升全要素生產率為核心標誌的先進生產力，全面深化市場化改革和防風險，實現經濟質的有效提升和量的合理增長。

歷史上，為抵禦1997年7月爆發的亞洲金融危機衝擊，中國政府在1998-2002年曾發行長期建設國債6600億元，帶動了一攬子投資項目3.2萬億元。那次危機應對也是問題導向，解決了短期總有效需求不足，穩定了投資和消費增長，推進了中期紡織業限產砸錠、國有企業三年脫困、銀行業股份制改革，還解決了交通、市政、堤防、糧庫、生活垃圾處理、退耕還林還草還牧等長期歷史欠賬問題，2003至2012年中國經濟迎來高速增長。

今年，中國各地區各部門推動新舊動能轉換、加快發展先進生產力是一個重點。其中核心指標是全要素生產率（TFP）的提升。按照北京大學劉俏教授的研究，中國TFP 在2000年不到美國的30%，2014年超過40%，2035年能否超過60%是一個考驗。一方面，美國加大了再工業化戰略的實施力度，加快了對芯片和微電子、AI、量子信息領域的研發和投資，同時展開對華高技術領域長臂管轄和技術能力競爭。另一方面，中國也轉向科技高水平自立自強和全方位國際合作並重，用科技創新引領現代化產業體系發展。

今年，中國將在六個方面聚焦加快發展先進生產力。

一是推動新型城鎮化重大工程和農業轉移人口市民化，提升資源再配置的效率。

二是建設高質量教育體系，既包括建設一流研究型大學，也包括提升職業教育質量。

三是擴大高水平對外開放，主動對接高標準國際經貿規則，穩步擴大制度型開放，鞏固外貿外資基本盤。

四是推動科技高水平自立自強，強化基礎研究系統布局，增強原始創新能力。

五是全面深化改革，增強發展內生動力。

六是充分發揮中國大市場和全產業鏈的規模優勢，國有企業、民營企業、外資企業都是現代化建設的重要力量。

今年，中國還會大力推進現代化產業體系建設，重點是推動實體經濟、科技創新、現代金融、人力資源協同發展。

一是實施製造業技術改造升級工程，推進傳統產業數字化轉型和綠色化轉型。

二是實施產業創新工程，促進戰略性新興產業融合集群發展。

三是制定未來產業發展規劃，開闢量子技術、生命科學等新賽道。

2024年的中國經濟，無論是地方、部門還是企業都將是大浪淘沙的一年。逆境中勇於創新、轉型升級，就能釋放出更大的經濟增長潛力。

Recent forecasts by international organizations have all but revised down China's economic growth. The IMF predicts the country's 2023-25 growth rate at 5.2 percent, 4.6 percent and 4.2 percent, based on assumptions of insufficient effective demand, inadequate endogenous growth momentum and muted macro policy stimulation. However, I believe that China's economy will buck the trend and generate a new curve in which growth will reach toward 5 percent in 2024 and even beyond 5 percent in 2025 as it shakes off the lingering impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and returns to an appropriate range.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang delivered the Government Work Report at the opening meeting of the second session of the 14th National People's Congress, in which it says that China's general expenditures in 2024 will be 28.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.1 trillion yuan over the previous year. Ultra long special treasury bonds will be issued to provide sustainable financing for major construction projects, with 1 trillion yuan to be issued in the first tranche this year. China's monetary policy continues to aim at maintaining reasonably sufficient liquidity. Government departments and local governments must enhance the consistency of macro policy orientations to ensure stable expectations, growth and employment.It can be expected this year that the Chinese government will introduce a combination of policy packages, not merely with the purpose of stimulating the economy but also to be solution-oriented, namely rolling out measures to comprehensively and systematically address the institutional, structural and aggregate development constraints and impediments in the quest for high-quality development. It will be guided by the principle that development is of overarching importance.

In the short term, the focus will be on addressing insufficient effective aggregate demand and achieving stable economic growth. In the medium term, the focus will be on stabilizing the real estate market (which is related to bulk consumption), advancing structural adjustments and supply-side structural reforms. In the long term, the focus will be on the development of advanced productive forces, driven by innovation and underpinned by high quality. This will ultimately elevate total factor productivity (TFP), alongside efforts to comprehensively deepen market-oriented reforms and forestall risks. All these efforts will ensure that China's development is empowered not only by reasonable growth in quantity but also an effective upgrade in quality.

Back in July 1997, when the Asian financial crisis wreaked havoc, the Chinese government issued 660 billion yuan of long-term treasury bonds with tenor from 1998 and 2002, catalyzing a package of 3.2 trillion yuan for investment projects. This crisis response is also solution-oriented. It helped to solve the short-term problem of insufficient effective aggregate demand and stabilize investment and consumption growth, but it also facilitated the process of shutting down excess textile capacity, lifting state-owned enterprises out of difficulties within three years and reforming bank shareholding to introduce strategic investors for public listings.In addition, it also served to promote structural adjustments and resource reallocation, as well as to support projects that improve the well-being of the people in such areas as transportation, municipal services, embankment, grain depots, garbage disposal and the restoration of farmland and grassland, among other long-entrenched problems. China ushered in a period of accelerated growth from 2003 to 2012.

In the coming new year, China will prioritize the transition from old growth drivers to new ones and accelerate the development of advanced productive forces across all sectors. One of the core indicators is the improvement of TFP. According to the research of Professor Liu Qiao of Peking University, China's TFP as a share of the U.S. was less than 30 percent in 2000 but rose above 40 percent in 2014. It's conceivable that it could reach 60 percent in 2035.Meanwhile, the United States has stepped up the implementation of its re-industrialization strategy, featuring accelerated R&D investment in the field of chips and microelectronics, AI and quantum information, alongside the exercise of long-arm jurisdictions against China in high-tech and competition in capabilities. At the same time, China has shifted to a high level of self-reliance in science and technology and in comprehensive international cooperation, leading the development of a modernized industrial system driven by innovation.

China will focus on accelerating the development of advanced productive forces in six areas:

• Advance urbanization and integrate urban migrants into city life while enhancing the efficiency of resource reallocation.

• Develop a high-quality education system. This includes building first-class research-focused universities and upgrading the quality of vocational education.

• Expand high-level opening-up, primarily through alignment with high-standard international economic and trade rules, expanding institutional opening-up and attracting more foreign trade and investment.

• Promote high-level self-reliance in science and technology through efforts to comprehensively enhance our capability of independent innovation, improving the layout of the basic research system and enhancing the capability of original innovation.

• Deepen reform in a comprehensive manner and enhance the internal impetus for development.

• Leverage the scale advantages of China's supersized market and complete industrial chain. All types of businesses, including state-owned enterprises, private enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises, will play important roles in the modernization process.

China will also vigorously build a modernized industrial system. Its focus will be on science and technology innovation, modern finance, human resources and synergizing development of the real economy.

First, it will implement programs to upgrade the manufacturing technology system and promote the digital and green transformation of traditional industries.

Second, it will implement industrial innovation projects and promote the integration and cluster development of strategic emerging industries.

Third, it will formulate plans for the development of future industries and break new ground in frontier areas such as quantum technology and life sciences.

It can be concluded that China's economy in 2024 will see a renewed round of make-or-break, at the local, and sector levels, as well as for individual enterprises.The ambition to innovate, change, transform and upgrade in adversity will unleash its untapped potential for growth. There is a broad consensus that China should run its own house well and make the best of this opportunity. There is every reason to look forward to a promising year for the Chinese economy in 2024.