當前，美國經濟飽受高通脹之痛。為控制高通脹，美聯儲開啟了激進加息模式，宣布將聯邦基金利率的目標區間大幅上調75個基點，並創下美聯儲1994年以來最大加息紀錄。鑒於美國通脹的頑固性和結構性，要在激進加息抗通脹和不對經濟踩剎車之間搞平衡幾乎是不可能的，世界也要為新一輪衝擊做好充分準備。

美國通脹已經持續一年之久，連續12個月超過5%，連續3個月超過8%，而5月份更是飆升至8.6%，創下40多年來新高。事實上，美國此輪通脹具有廣泛的基礎，其中住房、汽油和食品的貢獻最大。能源價格指數在5月同比上漲34.6%，為2005年9月以來的新高；食品價格更是同比增長10.1%，為1981年3月以來新高。高通脹侵蝕了消費者購買力與經濟增長，因此美聯儲將抗通脹作為頭號任務。

然而，加息是一把“雙刃劍”。由於美國自身經濟增長正在失去動能，加息和貨幣抽水將對經濟產生重大影響。利率上行，層層傳導，包括抵押債務和商業貸款在內的借貸成本將上升，這會打擊房地產，削減消費者支出，讓企業擴張降溫，削弱勞動力市場和經濟增長前景。近一時期以來，美國經濟信心指數和經濟痛苦指數都已顯露出經濟衰退的苗頭。

首先，美國消費者信心指數創下40多年來新低。在持續高企的通脹面前，美國消費者信心指數遭遇重創。6月份密歇根大學美國消費者信心指數降至50.2，不僅比5月下跌了8.2個百分點，甚至低於2020年（新冠疫情暴發時期）和2008年（雷曼危機時期）水平，創下44年來的最低。美國是消費驅動型經濟，消費是拉動經濟增長的主要引擎，因此這也是對美國經濟增長悲觀預期的信號。

其次，美國經濟痛苦指數創二戰以來新高。一般而言，把通脹率和失業率結合起來看，就組成了經濟學家稱為的“經濟痛苦指數”，這是由耶魯大學經濟學教授阿瑟·奧肯在上世紀70年代創建的，是用來衡量普通人經濟福祉的經濟指標。這一指標越高，表明經濟痛苦程度越高。5月份美國失業率為3.6%，雖然失業率尚處於歷史低位，但高通脹導致對未來美國經濟衰退的擔憂會影響到美國就業市場，對企業招聘造成負面影響。從美國6月份就業市場來看，美國持續申請失業救濟趨勢較低，但初次申請失業救濟的趨勢卻出現了明顯上升，而通脹對就業市場的壓力會進一步顯現。當前美國經濟痛苦指數已經飆升至12.2，以歷史標準衡量，比二戰後的幾次衰退都要高。

第三，前期拉動美國增長的房地產市場也出現明顯退潮。6月美國住宅建築商信心指數下降2個點至67，創下2020年6月以來的最低水平，這也是該指數連續第六個月下降。隨着國債收益率持續上升，美國30年期抵押貸款利率已經上升了2個百分點，再次回到10多年前的水平。作為對利率最為敏感的部門，房貸利率飆升將抑制購買需求，使房價回落，進而衝擊房地產市場。

而縱觀美國抗通脹的歷史，經濟衰退也是必然要付出的代價。1979-1982年期間，時任美聯儲主席的沃爾克以“壯士割腕”的態度抵抗通脹，開啟了“暴力加息”進程。在這一過程中，公眾逐漸認識到美聯儲控通脹的決心，雖然最終扭轉了通脹預期，並使通脹率逐步回落至5%附近，但沃爾克抵抗通脹之戰的代價最終是美國陷入自1930年代“大蕭條”以來最嚴重的經濟衰退，以及失業率飆升至10%。

沃爾克時期，美國貨幣緊縮政策使聯邦基金利率激增至20%的峰值。而目前美國聯邦基金利率的目標範圍是0.75%-1%，這意味着還有很長的加息和緊縮路程要走。美國此輪通脹是頑固的、結構性的，要想將核心通脹降至2%，而又不讓經濟陷入衰退，幾乎是不可能的事情，美國經濟將不可避免地再一次經歷“沃爾克式緊縮”。

美國是全球最大經濟體，美元是全球主要結算貨幣，美聯儲進入加息周期對世界經濟的衝擊是顯而易見的，世界經濟將面臨多重風險。當前世界多個經濟體追隨美國啟動加息進程，根據美國銀行全球研究報告（BofA Global Research）顯示，全球部分央行今年年內加息次數已累計達124次，超過了2021年全年數量。而在2020年，全球央行累計加息次數僅為6次。持續累加的貨幣緊縮將導致全球金融環境大幅收緊。高通脹加上貨幣緊縮導致的經濟下行壓力，以及全球化倒退、產業鏈供應鏈重構所導致的重置成本上升，有可能讓全球陷入“滯漲”的風險。

The United States economy is suffering from high inflation. To control it, the Federal Reserve moved aggressively to raise interest rates, with the target range for federal funds up by a hefty 75 basis points, the sharpest hike since 1994. Given that inflation in the American economy is persistent and structural, it is almost impossible to counter inflationary pressure with aggressive interest rate hikes and also avoid slamming the brakes on the economy. The world needs to prepare for new shocks.

U.S. inflation has been running at more than 5 percent for 12 months and 8 percent for three consecutive months. It surged to 8.6 percent in May, its highest in more than 40 years. In fact, the ongoing inflation is broad-based, with housing, gasoline and food contributing the most. Energy prices rose 34.6 percent in May from a year earlier, the highest since September 2005, and food prices rose 10.1 percent year-on-year, the highest since March 1981. High inflation erodes consumer purchasing power and economic growth, and the Fed has made fighting inflation its top priority.

But raising interest rates is a double-edged sword. With economic momentum running out of steam, higher interest rates and monetary tightening will have a big impact. As interest rates rise and the impact is felt at different layers of finance, the cost of borrowing — including mortgage debt and commercial loans — will rise, which will hit the real estate sector, cut consumer spending and chill business expansion, thus weakening the labor market and growth prospects. Recently, the U.S. economic sentiment indicator and misery index have both shown signs of recession.

First, consumer confidence is at its lowest level in more than four decades, as reflected in the plummeting consumer confidence index, in the face of persistent inflation. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 50.2 in June, down 8.2 percent from May. It was the lowest in 44 years, even below 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic and 2008 during the Lehman Brothers crisis. Given that American economic growth is mainly consumption-driven, low consumer confidence signals pessimism about growth.

Second, the misery index is at its highest since World War II. The index is the sum of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. It was created in the 1970s by Arthur Okun, a professor of economics at Yale University, as a measure of the economic well-being of ordinary people. The higher the index, the greater the economic misery.The unemployment rate was 3.6 percent in May, which is pretty low historically. However, the concern that high inflation will lead to recession will affect the job market and have a negative impact on corporate hiring. In June, the U.S. employment market showed a low trend in unemployment benefit claims but a clear increase of initial claims. Pressure on the job market will become more apparent as time goes by. The misery index has already soared to 12.2, higher by historical standards than that of any of the post-WWII recessions.

Third, the housing market, which had been a driver of growth, has also seen a significant ebb. The index of homebuilder confidence fell two points to 67 in June, its lowest level since June 2020 and the sixth straight monthly decline. As treasury yields continue to rise, 30-year mortgage rates have risen by 2 percentage points, returning to the level last seen more than a decade ago. In the most interest-sensitive sector, a surge in mortgage rates will dampen buying demand, bringing prices down and thus impacting the property market.

Throughout the history of America's fight against inflation, recession is the inevitable price. From 1979 to 1982, Paul Volcker, who was chairman of the Fed, made a resolute decision to fight inflation with sharp interest rate hikes. In the process, the public came to appreciate the Fed's determination to control inflation. Inflation expectations were eventually reversed and inflation was gradually brought down to around 5 percent, but Volcker's epic battle against inflation also led to the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s and a 10 percent unemployment rate.

When Volcker was in office, monetary tightening sent the federal funds rate soaring to a peak of 20 percent. The current target range for the rate is between 0.75 and 1 percent, which means a very long journey ahead on the path of raising rates and tightening. This round of inflation has been stubborn and structural. It is almost impossible to bring core inflation down to 2 percent without tipping the economy into recession. The U.S. economy will inevitably experience a Volcker-style contraction.

As the U.S. is the world's largest economy and the U.S. dollar is the world's main settlement currency, the Fed moving into an interest rate raising cycle will obviously bring multiple risks to the global economy. Many economies have followed suit in raising interest rates. According to a BofA Global Research report, some central banks have cumulatively raised interest rates 124 times this year, more than the total in 2021. They did so only six times in 2020. Continued cumulative monetary tightening will lead to a sharp tightening of global financial conditions. Downward pressure from high inflation and monetary tightening, plus higher replacement costs due to the reversal of globalization and the restructuring of supply chains, could drive up the risk of stagflation for the whole world.