美國總統唐納德·特朗普最近發推特說，華為可以成為潛在貿易協議的一部分。換言之，美國近期對華為的禁令並非真出於國家安全原因——這一指控毫無根據——而是將其當成與中國達成“偉大協議”的籌碼。在美國宣布從5月10日起把2000億美元中國商品關稅稅率從10%提高到25%，以及美國貿易代表公布即將加征25%關稅的3250億美元中國商品清單後，美國財政部長史蒂文·姆努欽又立刻表示願意繼續和中國進行談判。上述種種讓人相信，這一最新的更粗大棒也屬於特朗普“交易的藝術”，即用極限施壓來獲取最好協議。這也給最近中美貿易談判突然中斷提供了解釋：美國政府欲索要更多。美國揮舞更粗大棒，逼迫中國投降的同時又要求談判，這將確保美中全面貿易協議有利於美國。

特朗普總統似乎對這一結果很滿意，宣稱美國因上調關稅可以從中國那裡收到1000億美元，並迫使製造業從中國轉移到越南。不過，這種“交易的藝術”卻遭到中國斷然拒絕，並且，特朗普的沾沾自喜也僅僅是因為錯誤的經濟學知識，以及對歷史的誤解。

中國政府非但沒有投降，反而立刻予以反擊，提高了600億美元美國商品的關稅，並對華為表達了堅定支持。中國財政部還宣布，對中國的芯片和軟件研發提供五年財政支持。外交部和商務部發言人均對美國最新舉動予以譴責，強調中國不想打、不願打，但也不怕打，並將奉陪到底。發言人還指責華為禁令是美國政府對個別企業的不合理打壓。中國媒體也紛紛強烈批評美國這一做法。中國政府已經排除了達成一份傾向於美國利益協議的可能，並強調任何協議必須雙方平等互利。

中國沒理由同意美國予取予求

美國對中國的“極限施壓”因此似乎完全無效。中國沒有必要向美國讓利，因為美國不是中國加入WTO的受害者。中國加入WTO不是美國仁慈的禮物，那一刻也不是中國經濟和貿易起飛的開端。在中國加入WTO之前的17年（1985-2001），中國年均GDP增速就高達9.8%。在中國加入WTO之後的17年（2002-2018），中國年均經濟增速降至9.2%。中國在加入WTO前17年出口累計增幅為901.8%，而加入後17年的累計增幅為834.8%。由此可見，中國的快速經濟增長始於1980年代早期的改革開放，而加入WTO只是總體開放進程的一部分，加入後的經濟高增速只是既有趨勢的延續。

此外，正如上文所說，美國絕非是中國加入WTO的“受害者”。據美國商務部發佈的貿易數據，2002-2017年間，美國對中國出口累計增長了487.0%，是同期美國全球出口總額累計增幅（123.1%）的近四倍。同期，美國從中國的進口額累計增長了303.8%，是其全球進口額增幅（101.7%）的三倍，但增幅顯著低於對中國的出口增幅。

關稅和華為禁令同樣損害美國

特朗普“關稅由中國支付”的觀念是基於錯誤的知識框架。基礎貿易經濟學告訴我們，關稅是由進口者而非出口者支付的。事實上，對中國商品加征的關稅由美國進口商支付，他們再將部分負擔轉嫁給美國消費者和用戶。據美國工商組織“關稅傷害美國腹地”2019年5月24日發佈的估算數字，2018年關稅令美國消費者損失250億美元，相當於貿易戰每秒鐘讓美國人損失810美元。隨着2000億美元中國商品關稅被上調，額外3250億美元中國商品還可能被加征25%關稅，這些負擔還將顯著上升。

一個基本現實是，美國很難找到中國商品的替代供應方。目前已經被加征25%關稅的2500億美元中國商品中，美國對超過1000億美元中國商品的進口依賴度超過50%。例如，美國2018年從全球進口了4140.3億美元電腦和電子產品，其中1864.5億美元進口自中國，佔比為45%，超過其他八大供應方的總和。美國進口商如今能去哪裡找到替代供應商？2018年，美國玩具市場規模為280億美元，其中進口額高達184.9億美元。中國佔美國玩具進口總額的88%，金額達163.2億美元。美國玩具經銷商從哪裡去找這種規模的供應商？因此，美國進口商、零售商和消費者別無選擇，只能支付更高的價格。在中間商品方面，用戶們將面臨更高的成本和更低的利潤。據估計，對2500億美元中國商品加征25%關稅，將導致一個美國四口之家每年多支出767美元，並還將威脅到93.4萬個就業機會。據行業團體“貿易合作夥伴”的分析，如果特朗普對剩餘的3250億美元中國輸美商品也加征25%關稅，將導致美國損失210萬個就業崗位，美國四口之家每年將多支付超過2000美元。瑞銀集團（UBS）近期的一份研究預計，今年將有1.2萬家美國零售商關門，而對中國商品加征關稅將導致美國零售商成本進一步升高。沃爾瑪、梅西百貨以及其他主要零售商已感受到了衝擊。

在中國供給側一方，美國在中國的跨國公司貢獻了中國對美國出口的50%。關稅也將損害它們的利益。中國美國商會近期的一項會員調查顯示，74.9%的受訪者認為關稅損害了自己在中國的競爭力，52.1%的受訪者表示需求降低，42.4%的受訪者表示製造業成本升高，38.2%的受訪者表示出現銷售額下滑。

特朗普政府的華為禁令也對全球半導體研發、製造和應用的供應鏈造成巨大破壞。2018年，華為在全球有1.3萬個供應商，採購了700億美元設備和服務，其中110億美元來自高通等美國供應商。美國領先的芯片製造商也有自己的全球供應鏈。禁令迫使華為執行B計劃，即採用自己的芯片和系統，這破壞了國際供應鏈，並同樣損害了美國高科技行業。中國市場的銷量佔美國前十大芯片廠商全球銷量的比重很大，思佳訊的比重達80%，高通為63%，科爾沃為60%，博通為52%，美光科技為50%，英特爾為23%。如果丟掉了龐大中國市場的銷售額，美國芯片巨頭們將難以維持它們對研發的巨額投入來確保其國際領先地位。這也是為何美國科技股在過去一周出現暴跌。

持續的緊張局勢毫無疑問將影響中國的出口、工業、就業和經濟增速。同時，美國經濟也將受損。美國經濟已經顯露出弱化跡象。儘管2019年第一季度美國GDP增速仍達3.2%，但其主要支柱個人消費開支和私人固定資產投資合計只貢獻了1.09個百分點，低於2018年第四季度的2.20個百分點。這一趨勢在4月份得到延續，零售銷售下滑0.2%，工業生產下滑0.5%。

世界經濟也將成為中美貿易戰的受害者。IMF最近一篇文章說，如果對全部中美貿易加征關稅，全球GDP將損失0.3%。如果貿易關係繼續惡化，經合組織預計到2021年全球GDP將損失0.7%，即約6000億美元。

事實將再一次證明，貿易戰不會有贏家。美國的單邊貿易霸凌正在走進死胡同。唯一的出路是基於WTO規則的面對面談判，達成雙方平等互利的協議，結束目前的緊張局勢，並將雙邊貿易、全球經濟帶回正軌。

US President Donald Trump said recently on Twitter that Huawei could be part of a potential trade deal. In other words, America's recent outright ban on Huawei was not truly done for national security reasons — there was no evidence supporting the allegations — but rather as a bargaining chip to help get “a great deal” with China. Immediately after announcing the US tariff hike on $200 billion of Chinese goods from 10% to 25% starting May 10, and the subsequent US Trade Representative's release of the list of $ 325 billion of Chinese goods subject to 25% tariffs, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin expressed willingness to continue talks with China. All of the above leads people to think that this latest and much larger stick is also part of Trump's “art of the deal” — extreme pressure to produce the best deal possible. It also provides an explanation for the recent abrupt suspension of China-US trade talks: the US government wants much more. It thus made the stick much bigger, then asked for talks while pressing for a decisive Chinese defeat, that ensures a comprehensive US-China trade deal would be in America's favor.

President Trump seems happy with the outcome, claiming that the US could collect $100 billion from China from tariff hikes and force manufacturing activities to move from China to Vietnam. However, the “art of the deal” has just received a strong rebuff from China, and Trump's seeming happiness is merely the result of faulty economics and a mistaken understanding of history.

Instead of yielding at all, the Chinese government immediately counterattacked. It raised tariffs on $60 billion of US goods and vowed its strong support for Huawei. Then Chinese Ministry of Finance announced five years of fiscal support for chip and software R&D in China. The Foreign Ministry and Commerce Ministry spokesmen both condemned the latest US moves and reiterated that China is for trade talks, not for trade war, but is not afraid of the trade war and will fight to the very end. The spokesmen also accused the US government of using the Huawei ban as an unreasonable government suppression of an individual company. Strong criticism prevailed in the Chinese media. The Chinese government has excluded any possibility of a deal tilted towards American interests by reiterating that any deal must be equitable for both parties.

China Has No Reason to Grant the US a Favor

The “extreme pressure” America has put on China thus seems to have been ultimately useless. China does not need to yield a favor to the US as the US was not the loser from China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). China's WTO accession was not a benevolent gift from the US—still less did that moment mark the start of China's economic and trade takeoff. During the 17 years from 1985 to 2001, before China joined the WTO, China's average annual GDP growth rate hit 9.8%. During the 17 years after WTO accession, 2002-2018, the average annual growth rate slowed down somewhat to 9.2%. Chinese exports grew by an aggregate of 901.8% during the 17 years before WTO accession and 834.8% during the 17 years post-accession. Thus China's fast growth started from the early 1980s since its reform and opening-up, and the WTO accession was only a part of the overall process of opening-up—the fast growth after that was the continuation of the already existing trend.

Furthermore, as stated above, the US was not by any means a “loser” from China's WTO accession. According to the trade data released by the US Department of Commerce, during 2002-2017, US exports to China grew by an aggregate 487.0%, almost four times the speed of its global exports which grew by an aggregate 123.1%. During the same period, US imports from China grew by an aggregate 303.8%, three times the speed of its global imports (101.7%), but considerably slower than its exports to China.

Tariffs and Huawei Ban Hurt America as Well

Trump's notion of “tariffs paid by China” is based on a mistaken framework. Basic trade economics tells that the tariffs are paid by the importer, not exporter. In fact, the hiked tariffs on Chinese goods have been paid by US importers who have passed part of the burden on to American consumers and users. According to related calculations, American firms and consumers paid additional billions of dollars in 2018 due to tariffs—as a whole, they are currently paying $810 every second. With tariff hikes on $200 billion of Chinese goods set to begin June 1 of this year, with pending additional 25% tariffs on $325 billion of Chinese goods, these burdens will rise considerably.

A basic reality is that it is extremely difficult in America to find alternate supplies to replace Chinese goods. Out of the $250 billion of Chinese goods currently subject to 25% tariffs, for over roughly $100 billion worth the US has over 50% import dependence on China. For example, the US imported $414.03 billion of computers and electronics worldwide in 2018. Out of the total, $186.45 billion, or 45.0% was from China, larger than the next 8 largest supplies combined. Where could US importers find alternate suppliers now? In 2018, the US market for toys was $28 billion, depending largely on imports worth $18.49 billion. China accounted for 88% of total imports, valued at $16.32 billion. Where else can US toy dealers find this kind of supply? As a result, US importers, retailers and consumers have little choice but to pay a higher price. In the case of intermediate goods, the users will face a higher cost and falling profit. It is estimated that the 25% tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods will lead to $767 in additional annual costs borne by an American family of four, while further threatening 934,000 jobs. If this 25% is applied to the additional $325 billion of Chinese goods, the same family will pay $2000 more a year, and 2.1 million jobs might be lost. A recent study by UBS showed that the tariffs on Chinese goods will result in higher cost for US retailers, while 50% of the 12,000 US public retailers will close. Walmart, Macy's, and other leading retailers have already felt the shocks.

On the Chinese supply side, US multinational enterprises in China carry out 50% of Chinese exports to the US. The tariffs are also tilted to harm their interests. A recent American Chamber of Commerce member survey shows that the 74.9% of the respondents say that their competitiveness in China has been affected unfavorably by tariffs, with 52.1% respondents finding lower demand, 42.4% finding higher manufacturing cost and 38.2% finding lower sales.

The Trump administration's ban on Huawei is also causing phenomenal damage to the global supply chain for semi-conductor R&D, manufacturing, and application. Huawei had 13,000 suppliers worldwide in 2018, procuring $70 billion of devices and services, with $11 billion from Qualcomm and other US suppliers. The leading US chipmakers also have their own global supply chains. The ban has hit Huawei and forced the latter to follow Plan B — its own chips and systems — thus breaking the global supply chain and hurting America's high-tech sector as well. China's market accounted for a major share of the top 10 US chipmakers' worldwide sales. It varied from 80% of Skyworks Solution, 63% of Qualcomm, 60% of Qorvo, 52% of Broadcom, 50% of Micron, all way down to 23% of Intel. Without the massive sales revenue from the huge Chinese market, the US chip giants will be in a difficult position to continue their huge inputs of R$D to maintain leadership in this global, cutting-edge technology. That's the reason why US tech stocks nosedived over the past week.

The continuous trade tensions will undoubtedly affect China's exports, industry, jobs, and GDP growth. Meanwhile, the US economy will also suffer. The US economy is already showing signs of weakening. Although its GDP grew by 3.2% during Q1, 2019, its fundamentals — personal consumption expenditure (PCE) and private fixed investment combined, contributed only 1.09 percentage points, down from 2.20 in Q4 of 2018. The trend continued into April with retail sales down 0.2% and industrial production down 0.5%.

The world economy will also be a victim of the China-US trade war. A recent IMF article found that if the hiked tariffs were to apply to all China-US trade, world GDP would be cut by 0.3%. If trade relations continue to deteriorate, the OECD forecasts that global GDP would fall by as much as 0.7%, or roughly $600 billion, by 2021.

Facts will prove once again that there will be no winner from a trade war. The unilateral trade bullying by the US is running into a dead end. The only way ahead is through face-to-face trade talks on the basis of WTO rules, to reach agreements equitable and beneficial to both sides, thus ending the current tension and bringing bilateral trade, as well as the world economy, back to a normal track.