雖然西方專家們在1997年都作出了末日預言，但香港自20年前主權回歸中國後發展良好。“回歸”是一個具有歷史意義的事件，無論政治傾向如何，所有中國人都對此額手稱慶，它象徵著自鴉片戰爭起中國受西方列強欺凌的百年屈辱終於落下了帷幕。甚至連台灣都派代表團出席了香港的回歸儀式。

在香港特別行政區首任行政長官董建華的領導下，回歸本身平穩順利。但幾乎緊隨其後，亞洲金融危機席捲了包括香港在內的東亞地區，造成大規模的貨幣急劇貶值（除香港和中國內地）和普遍的經濟衰退（以及香港樓市泡沫的破裂）。隨後，香港又於2003年遭遇了非典疫情爆發、2008年全球金融危機以及隨之而來的歐洲主權債務危機，所有這些都對香港經濟產生了負面影響。

然而，堅韌頑強、足智多謀的香港成功抵禦住了所有危機。今天，香港實際人均GDP依然大幅領先韓國和台灣，雖然落後於新加坡15%（見下表）。最引人注目的轉變就是香港相對中國內地經濟規模比重的降低，從曾經的8.7%下降到不足3%，同時人均GDP從曾經的16.6倍下降到僅為5.6倍。

然而，在過去20年中，香港的收入差距急劇擴大，同時住房成本也迅速攀升，1997年至2016年期間翻了一番。相當一部分香港居民生活在狹小、簡陋、非法群租的房間，這帶來極大的防火隱患。我們只能祈禱，類似發生在倫敦格倫費爾大樓的火災不會發生在香港。卸任香港特首梁振英已經盡了最大努力改善住房問題。我們相信新任特首林鄭月娥會繼續致力於解決這一問題。然而，住房問題無法在一夜之間得到解決，甚至幾年都不夠。我們需要長遠設想及可靠規劃，這樣大家就會明白，所有人——比如10年後——都可以住上舒適得體、價格合理的房屋。這應該會在很大程度上幫助平息香港民眾積壓的憤怒。

在政治層面，香港的表現不盡如人意。普選方案的流產實在令人遺憾。但人們普遍誤解了“一國兩制”政策。這一政策是指一個單一國家，該國的一部分，即內地，實施社會主義經濟制度，而另一部分，即香港和澳門，實施資本主義經濟制度。這並非意味着兩個不同的政治體系。到2047年，無論“兩制”發生什麼變化，“一國”將是不變的。因此，關鍵是要接受“一國”理念，哪怕不支持中央或特區政府的現行政策。為實現這一目標，在香港中小學開設課程教授中國綿延5000年的歷史文化對於培育同一國民性至關重要。中國歷史在回歸前就是中小學的必修課，本應作為必修學科繼續存在。

眼下，內地和香港經濟都經歷着重大轉變，內地試圖達成“新常態”，減少對出口和固定投資的依賴，轉而注重促進內需和創新，而香港需要為自己尋求一個新定位。1949年以前，香港曾是服務華南的轉口貿易中心。中華人民共和國的成立令轉口貿易中斷，香港被迫在上世紀50年代中期開始發展輕工業，而政府通過在觀塘地區提供工廠用地支持該行業發展。60年代後期至70年代初期，香港勞動力成本上漲，加上來自台灣和韓國的競爭，輕工業開始走向衰落。但始於1978年的中國經濟改革開放令香港製造業轉戰內地，充分利用了那裡的低廉勞動力和土地成本。香港再一次成為轉口貿易中心，以及當時內地亟需的外國直接投資和外匯來源。香港證券交易所在上世紀90年代初期開始交易內地企業股票，同時幫助提供權益資本和外匯。毫不誇張地說，香港對於內地經濟改革開放的初期成就功不可沒。

然而，隨着內地經濟持續發展增長，香港扮演的角色開始式微。隨着內地將經濟發展模式重新定位為由龐大內需驅動，貿易增長開始放緩；無論如何，大部分貿易現在也都經由內地港口直接轉運。內地已經從進口國變為了凈資本出口國。因此，香港經濟開始愈發依賴內地，而非相反。

未來五年，相對內地，香港很有可能失去貨幣自由兌換的優勢；而隨着內地加入WTO及持續自由化，香港還將失去作為自由貿易港的大部分優勢。“一帶一路”倡議和大灣區發展規劃將給香港經濟注入新的活力。它們將給香港的重新定位帶來巨大經濟機遇。“一帶一路”倡議是涵蓋多個國家、歷時幾十年的發展規劃，旨在連接並改變亞洲、歐洲、非洲和大洋洲經濟體，並推動前所未有的、可持續發展的貿易和投資交流。香港很適合成為“一帶一路”基礎設施建設項目融資中心，因為香港不僅擁有可以自由流動的資本、自由兌換的貨幣、穩定的匯率、法治、低所得稅率（香港不對利息、分紅和資本收益課稅），還可以接入內地龐大的資本市場和儲蓄池，同時擁有“一帶一路”倡議主辦者中央政府的支持。香港可以推出一套融資方案，包括公共和私人資本，股權和債務，長短期債券和期票，或許還可以包括不同幣種。但它必須發展出一個擁有足夠流動性、更加活躍的債券市場。

香港也是建立“一帶一路”地區性證券市場的理想選擇，尤其是對來自發展中經濟體的公司來說。2015年，內地證券交易所平均日交易總額超過41萬億美元，紐約證券交易所的這一數字是30萬億，香港為2萬億。這顯示出內地投資者巨大的購買力以及這種購買力吸引大公司在香港證券交易所上市的能力。香港還可以成為內地對外直接投資和證券投資的跳板，因為香港擁有國際網絡及高度發達的專業服務業。“一帶一路”倡議會進一步增強對災害、財產和人壽險的需求，這三者連同再保險衍生品已經開始經歷飛速發展。此外，由於內地是風險資本的潛在重要來源，香港還可以建立起一個國際化再保險中心。

大灣區涵蓋珠三角地區的11個城市，包括廣州、深圳和澳門，該地區將為香港提供其所需要的經濟腹地。利用大灣區的輕重工業、高科技企業、投資者、企業家、風險投資人、創業公司及研究型大學，香港有潛力成為一個集硅谷、紐約和蘇黎世為一體的、真正擁有全方位服務能力的國際金融中心。香港可以成為該地區風險投資和私募股權中心，其中包括“首次公開募股（IPO）” 等股票債券上市市場，同時成為囊括“企業併購（M&As）”和再保險的投資銀行業中心。但有必要推動大灣區內部貨物、服務、人員、資本和信息的自由流動及基本的基礎設施共享。一個可行的方案是建立大灣區自由貿易試點項目。大灣區擁有在10年內超越英國成為世界第五大經濟體的潛力。

積極的不干預主義為政府的無所作為提供了便利的借口，但這已無法再繼續服務香港利益。為充分實現“一帶一路”倡議和大灣區發展規劃的潛力，需要長期的規劃協調。香港必須令自身再次成為不可或缺、無法替代的存在，做內地城市所不能，同時共享繁榮成果。僅靠香港自己無法實現這一目標。

本文縮減版刊登於2017年7月1日《南華早報》。

Despite all the predictions of doom by Western pundits in 1997, Hong Kong has done well since its reversion of sovereignty to China twenty years ago. The “handover” was an historic event, hailed by Chinese everywhere, regardless of political persuasion, as the final closure of the century-long humiliation suffered by China at the hands of the Western powers beginning with the Opium War. Even Taiwan sent a delegation to Hong Kong for the handover ceremony.

The transition itself went smoothly under the leadership of TUNG Chee-Hwa, the first Chief Executive (CE) of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). However, almost immediately after the handover, East Asia, including Hong Kong, was engulfed by the East Asian currency crisis, leading to widespread massive devaluation (except in Hong Kong and the Mainland) and economic recession everywhere (and the bursting of the housing price bubble in Hong Kong). This was followed by the outbreak of the “Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)” in Hong Kong in 2003, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the subsequent European Sovereign Debt Crisis, which all impacted the economy negatively.

However, Hong Kong, ever so resilient and resourceful, survived all these crises. Today, Hong Kong still remains substantially ahead of South Korea and Taiwan in real GDP per capita but behind Singapore by 15% (see the table below). The most significant change is the decline in the size of the Hong Kong GDP relative to the Mainland—it went from 8.7% (176/2022) to just below 3% (321/10727) and on a per capita basis from 16.6 (27141/1636) times to only 5.6 (43788/7758) times.

However, during the past two decades, income inequality in Hong Kong has risen sharply, as has the cost of housing, which doubled between 1997 and 2016. A significant proportion of Hong Kong citizens live in tiny, sub-standard, illegally subdivided rooms, which are a major potential fire hazard. We just pray that something similar to the Grenfell Tower fire in London would not happen here. The outgoing CE, Chun-Ying LEUNG, has tried his best to improve the housing situation. We believe the incoming CE, Carrie LAM, will continue working on it. However, this problem cannot be solved overnight, or even in a couple of years. We need a vision and a credible plan, so that people know that decent and affordable housing will be available for all in, say, ten years. This should help dissipate a great deal of the latent anger among our citizens.

Politically, Hong Kong has not fared so well. It was a shame that the universal suffrage plan failed to pass. However, the “One Country, Two Systems” principle has been widely misunderstood. It is meant to be a single country, but with one part, the Mainland, operating under the socialist economic system and the other part, Hong Kong and Macau, operating under the capitalist economic system. It is not meant to be two different political systems. Whatever happens to the “two systems” in 2047, it will always be “one country”. It is therefore essential to embrace the idea of “one country”, even if one does not support the current policies of the Central or the HKSAR Government. To this end, the teaching of China's own history and culture, which span 5,000 years, in our primary and secondary schools is important to the nurturing of the sense of one nationhood. Chinese History, which was a mandatory subject in primary and secondary schools before the “handover”, should have continued to be mandatory.

At the present time, both the Mainland and Hong Kong economies are undergoing important transitions—with the Mainland trying to achieve a “New Normal”, with reduced reliance on exports and fixed investment and greater focus on domestic demand and innovation, and Hong Kong needing to find another role for itself. Before 1949, Hong Kong was an entrepot port, serving southern China. The establishment of the People's Republic of China halted the entrepot trade and forced Hong Kong to develop its light manufacturing industries in the mid-1950s, with the support of the government, which provided land for factories in Kwun Tong. In the late 1960s and early 1970s, the rising wage rate in Hong Kong and the competition from Taiwan and South Korea caused light manufacturing to decline. But the Chinese economic reform and opening to the world in 1978 allowed Hong Kong manufacturers to re-establish their operations on the Mainland, taking advantage of the lower costs of labour and land. Hong Kong also became once again the entrepot port and the source of the then much needed foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign exchange for the Mainland. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx) began to list the shares of the Mainland enterprises in the early 1990s, also helping to provide equity capital and foreign exchange. It is no exaggeration to say that Hong Kong was indispensable for the initial success of the Mainland economic reform and opening.

However, as the Mainland economy continues to develop and grow, Hong Kong's role gradually diminishes: The growth of Mainland trade has slowed as the Mainland reorients its economy to its own huge domestic market; in any case, most of the trade is now carried out directly through Mainland ports. The Mainland has become a net capital exporter rather than importer. Thus, the Hong Kong economy has become more dependent on the Mainland rather than the other way around.

Hong Kong is likely to lose the advantage of the full convertibility of its currency over the Mainland in the next five years; it will also lose much of its advantage of a free trade port on account of the Mainland's accession to the WTO and continuing liberalization. The “Belt and Road (B&R)” and the “Greater Bay Area (GBA)” initiatives can give the Hong Kong economy yet another new lease on life. They will open up significant new and continuing economic opportunities for Hong Kong to re-invent itself once again. B&R is a multi-country, multi-decade development plan with the objective of linking and transforming the economies of Asia, Europe, Africa and Oceania, and creating sustainable trade and investment exchanges where none exist before. Hong Kong is ideal as a centre for the financing of the “B&R” infrastructure projects because of not only its complete capital mobility, full currency convertibility, stable exchange rate, rule of law, and low income tax rates (no tax on interest, dividends and capital gains), but also its ready access to the huge Mainland capital market and savings pool, and the support of the Central Government, the principal sponsor of B&R. Hong Kong can readily put together a financing package that includes both public and private participation, equity and debt, and short- and long-term bonds and notes, and possibly in multiple currencies. However, it must develop a more active bond market with sufficient liquidity.

Hong Kong is also an ideal home for a B&R region-wide stock market, especially for enterprises in the developing economies. In 2015, the average daily turnover of Mainland stock exchanges combined was more than US$41 trillion, compared to US$30 trillion for the New York Stock Exchange and US$2 trillion for the HKEx. This demonstrates the huge buying power of Mainland investors and what it can do to attract major enterprises elsewhere to list their shares on HKEx. Hong Kong can also serve as a springboard for outbound Mainland direct and portfolio investment because of its international links and highly developed professional services sector. B&R will further increase demands for casualty, property and life insurance, which have already been growing by leaps and bounds, as do the derivative demands for re-insurance. In addition, since the Mainland is potentially a major sources of risk capital, an international re-insurance center can be developed right here.

GBA, which comprises eleven cities of the Pearl River Delta, including Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Macau, will provide Hong Kong with its economic hinterland. Taking advantage of the presence of light and heavy manufacturers, high-technology enterprises, inventors, entrepreneurs, venture capitalists, start-ups, investors and research universities in the GBA, Hong Kong can potentially become a truly full-service international financial centre that combines the Silicon Valley, New York and Zurich into one. It can become the region's venture capital and private equity hub, the market of choice for the flotation of stocks and bonds, including “Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)”, and a centre for investment banking, including “Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As)”, and re-insurance. However, it is necessary to promote the free flow of goods and services, people, capital and information as well as the sharing of basic infrastructural facilities within the GBA. One possible approach is to establish a pilot GBA Free Trade Area. The GBA has the potential of overtaking the U.K. to become the world's fifth largest economy in ten years' time.

Positive non-interventionism, which provided a convenient excuse for the government not to do anything, no longer serves Hong Kong's interests. Long-term planning and coordination are needed to realize the full potentials of both B&R and GBA. Hong Kong must make itself once again indispensable and irreplaceable, doing what other Chinese cities cannot do, but at the same time sharing the prosperity with them. Hong Kong alone cannot make it.

(A shortened version of this paper appeared in South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 1 July 2017.)