2013年9月中國國家主席習近平訪問哈薩克斯坦，首次提出共同建設“絲綢之路經濟帶”，並期望以點帶面、由點到線、從線到片、逐步形成歐亞區域大合作。同年10月，習近平訪問印度尼西亞，提出東南亞地區自古以來就是“海上絲綢之路”的重要樞紐，中國願同東盟國家加強海上合作，使用好中國政府設立的中國－東盟海上合作基金，發展好海洋合作夥伴關係，共同建設“21世紀海上絲綢之路”。“絲綢之路經濟帶”和“21世紀海上絲綢之路”統稱為“一帶一路”。

"一帶一路"需要陸海兩條經濟帶的創建：路上絲路包括橫貫中亞、西亞、中東及歐洲地區的原始絲綢之路沿線的國家，海上絲路則連接了從中國沿海地區到東南亞、非洲和歐洲沿線的國家。(中美聚焦圖片）

2015年3月，中國發佈《推動共建絲綢之路經濟帶和21世紀海上絲綢之路的願景與行動》，標誌着國家一項宏大倡議的正式出台。“一帶一路”的提出充實了新時期中國周邊外交戰略的內涵，也標誌着中國新一屆領導集體啟動了中國以互聯互通為導向、首重周邊、延及亞非歐大洋洲等地區、範圍廣闊的全球地緣經濟布局。

“一帶一路”倡議推進一年多以來進展如何？我們可從以下幾方面看個大致：

一是完成頂層設計，相關配套支撐的制度性框架已經確立。“一帶一路”倡議的提出及“願景與行動”的出台，標誌着“一帶一路”倡議頂層設計的完成。中共中央及時成立“推進'一帶一路'建設工作領導小組”，建立“一帶一路”建設風險評估機制。2015年4月，中國央行向國有政策性銀行注入620億美元，用於“一帶一路”項目。中國還出資400億美元設立絲路基金，中國主導成立的亞投行已於2016年初開張，57個國家成為創始成員，還有近30個國家有意向申請加入。亞投行作為一家多邊金融機構，雖非與“一帶一路”直接有關，但可以為“一帶一路”提供商業融資。如亞投行首筆融資項目已於2016年5月發放，為巴基斯坦的M4高速公路項目融資，這個項目是中巴經濟走廊建設的重要環節。

二是實現與“一帶一路”戰略對接或存有共識的國家與地區不斷增加。“一帶一路”倡議倡導“共商、共建、共享”，因此，與沿線國家或地區實現戰略對接十分重要。在具體推進過程中，相關對接加緊展開。在東南亞，與多年來存有共識的泛亞鐵路網建設相適應，雙邊戰略對接加快。印度尼西亞提出的“海洋軸心戰略”，與“21世紀海上絲路”倡議存有交叉，兩國政府同意對接兩國發展戰略。中越正在磋商“一帶一路”和“兩廊一圈”合作。中新探討在“一帶一路”倡議下加強在第三方的建設合作。在南亞，孟中印緬四方聯合工作組啟動，印度提出“棉花之路”，存在與“絲綢之路”對接的前景，中尼（泊爾）印走廊建設擺上日程，特別是中巴經濟走廊建設正在加快推進。中俄簽署並發表“絲綢之路經濟帶”與“歐亞經濟聯盟”建設對接合作聯合聲明。中蒙俄三方簽署《建設中蒙俄經濟走廊規劃綱要》，制定三方全作的中期路線圖。中蒙商定對接“絲綢之路”與“草原之路”。中國與哈薩克斯坦就“絲綢之路”與“光明之路”達成對接共識。中韓決定推進四項發展戰略對接。在南太，澳大利亞北部開發計劃對“一帶一路”對接高度期待。在歐洲，中國同歐盟決定實現“一帶一路”與歐洲側重基礎設施建設的“容克投資計劃”的對接。中德建立了“中國2025”同“德國工業4.0”對接協商機制。中英也在探討“一帶一路”與“英格蘭北部經濟中心”對接。中國與中東歐多數國家簽署了戰略對接備忘錄。

三是重點項目全面展開並有序推進。“一帶一路”包括通道建設、產能合作及基礎設施建設等，涉及項目十分廣泛，儘管有些項目因為當地國家政局變化、融資條件和債務問題突出而遭遇反覆，但一年多來，重點項目推進還算順利。從具體重點項目來看，雅萬（雅加達至萬隆）高鐵已開工，中老（撾）鐵路、中泰鐵路、匈（牙利）塞（爾維亞）鐵路、巴基斯坦拉合爾橙線輕軌等項目正在組織施工。在“21世紀海上絲綢之路”項目建設方面，瓜達爾港、漢班托塔港、吉布堤港、比雷埃夫斯港工程建設全面展開。此外，馬新（加坡）高鐵、中蒙鐵路、兩洋鐵路等項目也在積極推進中。

2016年2月，中國企業承建的烏茲別克斯坦“安格連－帕普”鐵路的“咽喉”工程、全長20公里的中亞最長火車隧道卡姆奇克隧道提前貫通，有力推動了中國與中亞互聯互通進程。中俄將在今年年底前就建設長度為700多公里的莫斯科－喀山幹線達成協議。據統計，2015年中國對“一帶一路”沿線49個國家的直接投資近150億美元，同比增長18%。2016年頭5個月，中國對外承包工程合同中超過一半的金額（52%）是與“絲綢之路”沿線國家簽署的（2015年為44%）。共有70多個國家和國際組織積极參与“一帶一路”建設。

由於國際經濟環境複雜，“一帶一路”項目建設投資巨大、建設周期漫長、資金回收較慢，其中各種風險與挑戰相伴相隨，有序、穩妥、持續推進“一帶一路”建設，需要各方共同努力。

本文作者目前還是武漢大學邊界與海洋研究院在讀博士。

President Xi Jinping first proposed the idea to jointly develop a Silk Road Economic Belt during his visit to Kazakhstan in September 2013, and expressed the hope to gradually expand Eurasian cooperation on that basis. In October that year, Xi visited Indonesia and talked about Southeast Asia as an important hub along the maritime Silk Road since ancient times. According to him, China stood ready to strengthen maritime cooperation with ASEAN countries, make good use of the China-ASEAN Maritime Cooperation Fund set up by China and develop maritime partnerships with a view to building a 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. These were the origins of the Belt and Road Initiative (B&R).

OBOR calls for the creation of an economic land belt that includes countries on the original Silk Road through Central Asia, West Asia, the Middle East and Europe, as well as a maritime route that connects China’s coastal regions to Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe. (China-US Focus graphics)

In March 2015, China published Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road, marking the formal introduction of a grand initiative. The Initiative enriched the country's diplomatic strategy for the surrounding areas and marked the launch by the new Chinese leadership of a vast global geo-economic arrangement, which is led by connectivity, gives priority to the neighourhood and extends to regions further away.

Where does the B&R stand now, over a year since its introduction?

First, the top-down design has been completed, with supportive institutional framework basically in place. The Belt and Road propositions and the Vision and Actions document marked the completion of a top-down design. The Chinese government then followed it up with the formation of the Leading Small Group for Advancing the Belt and Road Initiative and a risk assessment mechanism. In April 2015, the Chinese central bank injected 62 billion dollars to state-owned policy banks for B&R projects. China also created a $40 billion Silk Road Fund. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), proposed by China, started operation in early 2016, with 57 founding members and nearly 30 applicants. As a multilateral financial institution, AIIB may provide commercial financing for B&R. The first loan was disbursed in May 2016 for the M4 highway in Pakistan, an important project in the development of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Second, more and more countries and regions now align or agree with the B&R strategy. China vows that the grand program will be jointly built through consultation to meet the interests of all. As such, strategic alignment with participating countries and regions is essential and effort to achieve such alignment has sped up in the process of advancing the initiative. In Southeast Asia, B&R is considered compatible with construction of the Trans-Asian Railway (TAR) network, on which consensus has existed for many years. Indonesia recently announced a Global Maritime Axis strategy, which overlaps with the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road proposal. The two governments have agreed to align their strategies. China and Vietnam also are now having consultations on cooperation, under B&R and 'Two Corridors and One Ring'. China and Singapore are exploring how to strengthen construction cooperation in third countries. In South Asia, a joint working group involving Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar has been launched. India has initiated 'Cotton Route', with the prospect of aligning with China's 'Silk Road'. Construction of a China-Nepal-India corridor is now on the agenda and efforts to build a China-Pakistan Economic Corridor are advancing fast. China and Russia signed and published a joint declaration 'on cooperation in coordinating the development of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) project and the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB)'. China, Mongolia and Russia signed an 'outline on developing a China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor', a medium-term roadmap for trilateral cooperation. China and Mongolia agreed to connect the Silk Road with the 'Grasslands Route'. China and Kazakhstan agreed to link the 'Silk Road' to the 'Bright Path' new economic plan. China and ROK decided to seize opportunities contained in four pairs of development strategies. In the South Pacific, Australia has high expectations for its plan to develop the country's northern region to be brought into alignment with B&R. In Europe, China and the EU decided to match B&R with the Juncker Investment Pan, which focuses on infrastructural construction. China and Germany have set up a consultation mechanism to connect 'Made in China 2025' with 'Industry 4.0'. China and the UK are also discussing alignment opportunities, between B&R and North of English Economic Center program. China has signed MOUs with most countries in Central and Eastern Europe.

Third, priority projects are in full swing. B&R covers transport connectivity, capacity cooperation and infrastructural construction, involving an extensive range of projects. Although some projects have had ups and downs due to changing local political situations, financing conditions and debt problems, priority projects have progressed smoothly. Specifically, work on high-speed rail connecting Jakarta and Bandung has started; railways linking China and Laos, China and Thailand, and Hungary and Serbia as well as the Orange Line of Lahore Metro are under construction; port construction at Gwadar, Hambantota, Djibouti and Piraeus is ongoing; and progress is also made in advancing railways linking Malaysia and Singapore, China and Mongolia, and the transcontinental railway in South America.

In February 2016, the Kamchiq Tunnel, the longest railway tunnel in Central Asia (20km) and a critical project along the Angren-Pap railway line in Uzbekistan, was successfully completed ahead of schedule, forcefully advancing connectivity between China and Central Asia. China and Russia will conclude an agreement before end of this year on the construction of a 700km trunk line between Moscow and Kazan. According to statistics, China directly invested nearly $15 billion in the 49 countries along the Belt and Road in 2015, an increase of 18% year on year. In the first five months in 2016, over half (52%) of the total value of China's overseas construction contracts came from countries along the Silk Road. Over 70 countries and international organizations take an active part in the B&R.

As the international economic environment is rather complicated, B&R will involve enormous investments, long construction cycles and slow payback. There will always been various risks and challenges. It will take concerted efforts of all parties concerned to advance the B&R in an orderly, reliable and sustained manner.

(The Author is also Ph.D. Candidate, Wuhan University China Institute of Boundary and Ocean Studies.)