今年以來，國際環境更趨複雜，世界經濟復蘇疲弱，國內經濟結構性矛盾加劇，風險隱患有所積累。

國內經濟結構性矛盾加劇。

上半年中國經濟怎麼看？

中國經濟處於預期增長區間，上半年GDP增長6.7%，供給側有所企穩，需求側明顯走弱。從供給側看，在工業品價格反彈、企業利潤回升、供給側結構性改革等因素推動下，工業生產穩中略升，二季度規模以上工業增長6.1%，較一季度回升0.3個百分點；在房地產市場活躍、科技創新研發設計、旅遊等服務業的拉動下，第三產業保持穩定增長，二季度第三產業增長7.5%，僅較一季度放緩0.1個百分點。從需求側看，固定資產投資增速持續放緩，特別是民間投資大幅下滑，但是服務業、高技術產業投資增長較快；消費品市場保持平穩增長，居民消費對經濟增長的貢獻率上半年大幅提高至73.4%；外貿出口依然低迷、進口降幅再度擴大。此外，物價水平溫和上漲，企業效益有所回升，金融市場總體平穩，城鎮新增就業持續增加。

供給側有所企穩，需求側明顯走弱。

下半年中國經濟怎麼走？

可以實現全年預期增長目標。展望下半年，由於國際環境複雜多變、民間投資斷崖式下跌、去產能進展緩慢、金融風險上升、居民收入增長放緩等問題，中國經濟運行下行壓力依然較大。但是，在積極的宏觀調控政策有力的托舉下，隨着供給側結構性改革紅利不斷釋放，中國經濟有望實現平穩運行，預計下半年和全年GDP均將增長6.6%左右，可以實現6.5%-7%的預期調控目標。

固定資產投資增速有望逐步企穩。上半年新開工項目明顯改善，企業效益的回升，將對下一階段投資增長帶來積極的支撐作用。當前信貸投放比較寬鬆，專項建設基金以及投貸結合明顯改善了資金到位情況。基建投資將繼續保持快速增長，是穩投資的關鍵，房地產投資隨着市場形勢回調將穩中趨緩，製造業投資在政策推動下有望遏制住下滑勢頭。預計全年固定資產投資將增長9.0%左右，其中，房地產投資將增長5.5%左右。

消費需求將保持平穩增長。當前，就業形勢基本穩定，城鄉居民收入增長和經濟增長基本同步，居民消費結構升級、商品房銷售形勢較好是消費需求平穩增長的主要支柱。但是，經濟和收入增長放緩對消費的滯後影響將會顯現。預計全年社會消費品零售總額均增長10.2%左右。

外貿進出口形勢仍將承壓。世界經濟復蘇難以強勁回升，外部市場需求低迷態勢仍將延續；經濟不景氣導致各國利益取向的分歧凸顯，貿易保護主義有所抬頭，尤其是針對中國的貿易壁壘尤為突出。當然，上半年人民幣實際有效匯率的貶值，會對外貿出口帶來一定促進作用。預計全年出口將下降6.2%左右，進口將下降8.0%左右。

居民消費物價將保持溫和上漲態勢，既沒有通貨膨脹壓力，也不會出現通貨緊縮問題。一是勞動力成本呈現出剛性上漲態勢，服務價格穩中略升。二是貨幣流動性相對寬鬆，有助於遏制居民消費價格進一步走低。三是儘管糧食供應充足，但是肉禽價格受季節需求變化，蔬菜受天氣等因素影響，食品價格具有較大不確定性。此外，下半年翹尾因素由上半年的0.9減弱至0.4個百分點。預計全年居民消費價格將上漲2%左右。

中國宏觀調控政策怎麼辦？

下半年經濟工作的核心是處理好供給側結構性改革和需求管理的關係。首先，適度擴大總需求，保持經濟運行在合理區間，為供給側結構性改革創造良好的宏觀環境。堅持問題導向和目標導向，大力緩解民營企業融資難，化解過剩產能、培育新增長動能，激發民間投資的積極性。其次，下決心加快推進供給側結構性改革，確保“三去一降一補”五大任務取得積極進展。去產能和去槓桿，關鍵是加快推進國企和金融領域基礎性改革，去庫存和補短板重在城鎮化推進，讓農民工成為真正的市民，降成本要考慮降低宏觀稅負。此外，要提高宏觀調控政策的質量，給市場明確預期，形成穩定的政策信號。

Since the beginning of this year, the international environment has become more complicated, and the world economic recovery has been weak, China's economic structural problems have become worse and the hidden risks have accumulated.

China's economic structural problems have become worse.

How to view China's economy in the first half of the year?

China's economy remains in the expected growth range. In the first half of the year, GDP grew 6.7 percent and the supply side stabilized slightly while the demand side clearly got weak. In terms of supply, driven by such factors as the rebounding price of industrial products, expanded corporate profits and supply-side structural reform, industrial production stabilized and even edged up, and above-scale industrial output grew 6.1 percent in the second quarter, an increase of 0.3 percentage point over the first quarter. Promoted by the brisk real estate market, by the technological innovation, R&D and design, and by service sectors like tourism, the tertiary industrial output maintained a steady growth, up by 7.5 percent in the second quarter and only 0.1 percent lower than the first quarter. On the demand side, fixed asset investment continued to grow slowly and the private investment fell down sharply in particular. But the service sectors and the high-tech industries showed a fast investment increase; the consumer goods market remained stable and contributions from residential consumption to economic growth rose significantly to 73.4 percent in the first half of the year; export figures were still in the doldrums and imports further declined. Meanwhile, the rise of prices was moderate, the enterprise revenues bounced back somewhat, the financial market stayed stable in general and new jobs kept growing in cities.

The supply side stabilized slightly while the demand side clearly got weak.

Where will China's economy go in the second half of the year?

The expected goal of economic growth for the whole year can be achieved. Looking to the second half of 2016, China's economy will still be under a great pressure due to these factors: the complicated and uncertain international environment, the dramatic fall of private investment, the slow reduction of overcapacity, the rising financial risk, the slow growth of residential income and so on. But, backed by the proactive macro regulation policy and with the continuous release of dividends from the supply-side structural reform, China's economy is expected to run smoothly. The GDP for the second half of the year and for the whole year is predicted to grow around 6.6 percent. The expected goal of 6.5-7 percent can be realized.

Fixed asset investment is expected to become stable. In the first half of the year, the obvious increase of new projects and the rise of enterprise revenues will boost investment in the next stage. The availability of funds has clearly improved because of the current relative easing of credit, special construction funds and the combination of investment and loans. Investment in infrastructure will continue to grow fast, a key to stabilizing investment. The real estate market will grow steadily and slowly with the market correction. Helped by policies, the manufacturing investment is expected to stop falling. Fixed asset investment for the whole year is expected to grow about 9 percent, about 5.5 percent of which will be real estate investment growth.

Consumer demand will continue steady growth. Now, employment is basically stable, and income growth of both urban and rural residents is generally in line with the economic growth. The upgrading of the residential consumption structure and the improving sales of commercial property greatly shore up consumer demand. But the slow growth of the economy and income will have a lagging impact on consumption. Retail sales of consumer goods for the whole year will increase about 10.2 percent on average.

Imports and exports will still be under pressure. The global economy will struggle to recover and external market demand will stay sluggish; economic recession will lead to more differences among countries out of their own interests, giving rise to trade protection and trade barriers against China in particular. Of course, the real effective depreciation of the RMB in the first half of the year will prop up China's imports and exports to some degree. The figure for exports is expected to go down by 6.2 percent and imports down by 8.0 percent for the whole year.

Consumer prices will continue to show mild growth. There will be neither inflation nor deflation. The reasons for this: first, labor cost shows a strong growing momentum and service prices are steady but rising a bit. Second, monetary liquidity is relatively easy, which helps prevent the consumer price from declining further. Third, despite the ample supply of grains, food prices are rather uncertain because the prices of meat and poultry are subject to seasonal demand and vegetables are affected by the weather. In addition, carryover effects will reduce from 0.9 percentage point in the first half of the year to 0.4 percentage point in the second half of the year. Consumer prices for the whole year are expected to increase 2 percent.

What macro regulation policy should China implement?

The focus of the economic plan for the second half of the year is to better cope with the relation between supply-side structural reform and demand management. First, moderately expand the aggregate demand and keep the economy running within a reasonable range so as to create a good macro environment for the supply-side structural reform. Stay problem-oriented and target-oriented, considerably alleviate the financing difficulty of private enterprises, reduce excess capacity, foster new growth and stimulate private investment. Second, speed up the supply-side structural reform to ensure a vigorous progress of the five major tasks: cut overcapacity, destocking, deleveraging, reducing cost and strengthening weak links. The key to cutting overcapacity and destocking is to accelerate and push forward the fundamental reform of the State-Owned Enterprises and the financial area; the focus on destocking and improving the weak links is pushing forward urbanization, turning the migrant workers into real citizens. Consider lowering the macro tax in cost reduction. In addition, enhance the quality of the macro regulation policy and give markets clear expectations to provide a stable policy.