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The vice president of the United States, JD Vance, lashed out at Europe's regression on “basic values,” claiming that the biggest threat does not come from Russia or China but from European countries' own suppression of freedom of speech, along with mismanagement of migration. He called out the United Kingdom, Germany, Romania and Sweden in particular.Vance's blunt remarks revealed a conspicuous split between the U.S. and Europe. The CSIS recently released a series of reports titled “The Transatlantic Alliance in the Age of Trump,” stating that Donald Trump no longer considers Europe to be at the center of U.S. global strategy. The U.S. instead seeks to relegate responsibility for European security to Europe itself and plans to gradually reduce its troop presence there. It uses security commitments as a bargaining chip to press for European concessions in economic, trade and technological realms.The U.S. is first stimulating Europe, knowing that European nations are not of one mind. Some will try to curry favor with the U.S. and appease the Trump administration by increasing military spending to purchase U.S. weapons and energy. Then they will be further divided and more easily blackmailed separately. Ending the Ukraine conflict will bring the ironic scenario of “resources for the U.S., debt for Europe and honors for Ukraine.”
European hopelessness: Ukraine on the menu, Europe not at the table
At last year's Munich Security Conference, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made the shocking “at the table or on the menu” statement. Unfortunately it came true this year: Ukraine ended up on the menu, and Europe isn't yet at the table.Vance's humiliating speech, which irked Europe, was not as simple as revealing the U.S.-Europe division. The U.S. is attempting to take advantage of its security leverage to make Europe accept stricter requests on defense, trade and sci-tech regulation. Owing to political differences, however, as well as to economic pressures and pluralistic pursuits, Europe has yet to come up with a unified strategy.
Global South helplessness: Where is the promised global public good?
Global South nations found themselves in a helpless position at Munich. With Trump now back in the White House, the U.S. State Department announced a 90-day moratorium on the implementation of all financial aid programs worldwide. There will be a reevaluation, it said. Asked to comment on Trump's decision (via Elon Musk, his special adviser and the world's richest person),to close USAID, the newly elected president of Ghana, who poked fun at himself in Munich as a “recycled president” like Trump. He listed the troubles in his country and asked: Where is the global public good that was promised? After all, the majority of African countries have yet to get rid of the pattern of relying on aid for development.A Nepalese representative said sadly that the U.S. aid agency MCC has already suspended financial support. Belt and Road had been abandoned in favor of getting MCC support, but now many programs, including those with the World Health Organization and UNICEF, have been affected.
Orderless world: Poles have not yet emerged, but order is gone
In the name of “multi-polarization,” this year's Munich Security Conference Report addressed worries about an orderless world. With the rise of the Global South, the dawn of the AI revolution and especially Trump's fateful return, Europe faces an embarrassing situation regarding order and poles.First, where there is no order, there can be no pole, as former European Commission High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell once put it. The world is like a jungle, while Europe is a garden.Second, there are poles without order (China and the U.S., for example). European Commission Chair Ursula von der Leyen said during a conference speech that the world is at risk from the rivalry between China and the U.S. — two poles. She was concerned about “orderlessness,” a condition in which neither China nor the U.S. cares about EU norms, and the EU risks marginalization.Third, there can be order without poles (GO era). The mentions of a “post-West” and “post-truth” era in the Munich reports in previous years foresaw the anxiety.Fourth, there can be both order and poles — the awkward situation of multiple poles, but without Europe. French President Emmanuel Macron's recent move to host the AI summit and his proposal for a third path for AI development were aimed at getting rid of the embarrassing position.
