冷戰結束後，世界全球化、多極化、信息化及和平發展的趨勢在亞太地區表現顯著，亞太成為全球最具發展活力和潛力的地區。

在20多年時間裡，亞太地區秩序出現的積極重大變化主要表現在六個方面：

一、聯合國憲章宗旨與原則及主要國際協議得到較好遵守與實行，亞太地區總體上保持了和平與安全。雖然地區內仍存在不少安全熱點，但多數得到較好控制，嚴重軍事衝突與戰爭得以避免。

二、有別于軍事同盟的地區多邊對話合作組織較快建立與發展起來，中國政府先後參加的即有十多個，最著名的如中國－東盟對話合作、APEC、東盟與中日韓合作、六方會談、中日韓合作、東亞峰會、東盟論壇、東盟防長擴大會、上海合作組織、香格里拉對話會、香山論壇等。

三、地區各國間普遍建立各種夥伴關係，廣泛開展政治、經濟、軍事、人文等各領域對話合作。地區內大國關係相對平衡穩定。

四、諸多多邊、雙邊自貿區得以建立，各國經濟相互依存大大加強。

五、地區非傳統安全合作得到極大發展。

六、作為新興大國，中國開始為地區提供公共產品。如提出“一帶一路”合作倡議，推動沿線各國互通互聯。又如建立亞投行，有力地促進了地區基礎設施建設。

在此期間，唯一超級大國美國在地區秩序中的主導地位有所下降，東盟在區域合作中取得中心地位，中國在地區經濟上的影響力日益上升。此外，雖然中國軍力發展很快，但與美國相比仍有較大差距。與此同時，地區大國印度逐步崛起。

然而近年來，世界局勢變化的消極面也在亞太地區日益顯露。無論是去全球化逆流、大國地緣政治競爭再現，還是信息化及科學技術新發展帶來的不確定性，都給冷戰結束後的亞太新秩序帶來重大挑戰，使其面臨不進則退的風險。

當前亞太地區秩序面臨的挑戰主要包括：

一、大國關係嚴重失衡。美日與俄羅斯已形成全面對抗，中美關係嚴重惡化，中日關係亦出現較大倒退，印度成為美日極力拉攏的對象。

二、美國在俄烏衝突爆發後仍堅持將中國視為主要戰略競爭對手和最嚴峻、最長期的挑戰，決心將印太作為打壓和制衡中國的主戰場，對華進行政治、經濟、軍事、意識形態等各個領域的戰略競爭。為此，美國不惜以經濟科技半脫鉤甚至全脫鉤打壓中國，這將對地區產業鏈、價值鏈、供應鏈造成極大衝擊與破壞。

三、隨着美國大力加強地區雙邊軍事同盟、發展五眼聯盟、建立與加強QUAD和AUKUS、建立排他性的印太經濟夥伴關係和芯片四方聯盟等，冷戰結束後建立起來的區域內多邊經濟安全對話合作機制受到較大衝擊，一些對話合作停滯不前，一些步履維艱難以達成協議，一些甚至有中斷危險。

四、地區熱點普遍升溫，發生危機與軍事衝突的可能性上升，地區和平安全受到威脅。目前東亞最突出的熱點一是台海，二是朝鮮半島。不久前台海已爆發一場嚴重危機。在半島，由於美中、美俄關係嚴重惡化，半島無核化國際合作已嚴重削弱，面臨爆發新核危機的巨大風險。地區戰略穩定亦面臨嚴重挑戰。

五、軍備競賽趨勢在地區內再現。

六、地區內眾多國家面臨美國要求選邊站的巨大壓力。

七、地區治理與各國非傳統安全合作受到嚴重干擾。

面對國際形勢的巨變和亞太地區秩序受到的嚴重挑戰，中國和包括日本、韓國在內的地區各國不應持悲觀態度，相反我們應有決心共同努力，通過加強全球與地區治理，克服全球化、多極化、信息化的消極或不確定因素，發揚其積極因素，使世界的和平發展趨勢得以維護，使後冷戰時期形成的亞太新秩序得以鞏固和發展。事實上，新冠疫情終將過去；近幾年地區內仍有CPTPP、RCEP的建立與發展，仍有上合組織的擴大及東盟+對話合作的持續；中國仍致力於發展相互尊重、和平共處、互利共贏的中美關係，中日、中韓經貿合作仍在發展；地區內的絕大多數國家都不願在中美之間選邊站。此外，最近的台海危機畢竟得到控制，沒有發生俄烏戰爭那樣的悲劇。面這一切，正是亞太地區的希望之所在。

After the end of the Cold War, the trends of globalization, multi-polarization, information technology expansion and peaceful development have been especially obvious in the Asia-Pacific, turning it into the most dynamic region with the greatest potential in the world.

Over the past 20 years, six major positive changes in the regional order have been clearly visible.

1. The purposes and principles of the UN Charter and major international agreements have been well observed and implemented, leading to peace and security in the region as a whole. Although there are still security hot spots, most of them are well under control, and serious military conflict has, for the most part, been avoided.

2. Regional multilateral dialogue and cooperation organizations, rather than military alliances, have been established and have developed rapidly. The Chinese government has been part of around a dozen such organizations. The best-known include the China-ASEAN dialogue and cooperation, APEC, ASEAN+3, the Six-Party Talks, China-Japan-ROK cooperation, the East Asia Summit, ASEAN Forum, ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting Plus, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Shangri-La Dialogue, the Xiangshan Forum and others.

3. Countries in the region have developed various partnerships and conducted extensive dialogues and cooperation in the political, economic, military and cultural fields. Relations between major powers in the region are relatively balanced and stable.

4. Many multilateral and bilateral free trade areas have been established, and national economies have become increasingly interdependent.

5. Regional non-traditional security cooperation has been greatly developed.

6. As an emerging power, China has begun to provide public goods to the region. It has, for instance, put forward the Belt and Road Initiative to promote connectivity with countries along the routes. It also established the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to give a powerful push to infrastructure construction in the region.

During the course of events, the United States, the sole superpower in the world, experienced a relative decline in its position of dominance in the regional order, while ASEAN has gained a central position in regional cooperation and China's influence in the regional economy has increased. In addition, while China's military power is developing rapidly, there is still a big gap when compared with the U.S. At the same time, India, another regional power, is gradually rising.

However, in recent years, some negative aspects of the huge changes in the world situation have also become increasingly visible in the Asia-Pacific. The rising trend of counter-globalization, the resurgent geopolitical competition between major countries and the uncertainties accompanying new developments in IT, science and technology are all challenging the new Asia-Pacific order that has emerged after the end of the Cold War. It seems a moment of either advancement or drawing back for the region.

The challenges facing the current regional order in the Asia-Pacific are mainly the following:

Relations between major countries are seriously imbalanced. The U.S., Japan and Russia have gone into all-out confrontation. China-U.S. relations have seriously deteriorated, and China-Japan relations have seen major setbacks. The U.S. and Japan are trying to draw India to their side.

Even after the outbreak of conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the U.S. still regards China as its major strategic competitor and the most severe and long-term challenge. It is determined to take the Indo-Pacific as the main battlefield to suppress and counter China, and it engages in strategic competition against China in political, economic, military, ideological and other fields. In this connection, the U.S.s does not hesitate to suppress China with semi or full economic and technological decoupling, dealing a major blow and damage to regional chains — industrial, supply and value.

As the U.S. strengthens its regional bilateral military alliances, develops the Five Eyes Alliance, establishes and strengthens the Quad and AUKUS and sets up the exclusive Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and Chip4 alliance, many multilateral economic and security dialogue and cooperation mechanisms established after the end of the Cold War have been greatly impacted, with some in stagnation, some experiencing great difficulties in reaching agreements and some at the edge of interruption.

4. Regional hot spots are generally getting hotter, with a higher likelihood of a crisis or military conflict, thus threatening regional peace and security. At present, the most prominent hot spots in East Asia are the Taiwan Strait and the Korean Peninsula.A serious crisis occurred not long ago regarding Taiwan, and on the Korean Peninsula, because of the serious deterioration of U.S-China and U.S.-Russia relations, international cooperation on denuclearization has been seriously weakened. The peninsula faces a serious risk of a new nuclear crisis.

5.Regional strategic stability is seriously challenged.

6.Signs of arms race are emerging again in the region. Many countries in the region are under great pressure from the U.S. to make an either/or choice.

7. Regional governance and non-traditional security cooperation has been seriously disturbed.

In the face of great changes in the international situation and serious challenges to the regional order, China and other countries in the region, including Japan and South Korea, should not be pessimistic. On the contrary, we should be determined to work together to overcome negative or uncertain factors and expand the positive aspects of globalization, multi-polarization and information sharing through strengthened global and regional governance so that the trend of peace and development can be maintained and the new post-Cold War order can be consolidated and developed.After all, the COVID-19 pandemic will eventually be gone. The region has in recent years witnessed the creation of the CPTPP and RCEP, the expansion of the SCO and a continuous ASEAN+ dialogue and cooperation. China remains committed to developing its relationship with the U.S. on the basis of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, mutual benefit and win-win. China-Japan and China-ROK economic and trade cooperation is still developing. And the vast majority of countries in the region are reluctant to choose sides between China and the U.S. Moreover, the recent crisis over Taiwan was brought under control without a tragedy — unlike the Russo-Ukraine war. These are exactly where the hope lies.