1月28日，美國總統特朗普公布了醞釀已久的“中東和平新計劃”（也稱“世紀協議”）。特朗普版本的這個中東和平協議剛一面世，就遭遇了外交挫折。除了美國鐵杆盟友以色列歡呼雀躍外，即便是美國的歐洲盟友也鮮有掌聲。“世紀協議”的出台使中東局勢出現了三個值得關注的新動向。

首先是以色列在巴以問題上的立場進一步強硬。以色列總理內塔尼亞胡應邀飛抵美國與特朗普聯袂揭曉“世紀協議”，這一“政治秀”本身就清楚說明“世紀協議”是美以之間溝通和協商的產物。這份完全沒有和巴勒斯坦方面商量的協議一邊倒地偏袒以色列，幾乎滿足了以色列的每一個主要要求，包括承認耶路撒冷為以色列首都（巴勒斯坦國未來將在東耶路撒冷部分地區建立首都）、承認以色列在約旦河西岸擴建的猶太人定居點的主權、巴勒斯坦解除武裝、巴難民問題擱置不談等等。受協議內容及當天公布的一份巴以概念地圖鼓舞，以色列已緊鑼密鼓地着手繪製以色列新地圖，迫不及待地想把協議內容通過新地圖的繪製和出版迅速轉化為現實。毫無疑問，依仗特朗普的支持和“世紀協議”的背書，以色列在巴以問題上已經無所顧忌，對來自巴勒斯坦及阿拉伯世界的反對意見也可做到充耳不聞了。2月8日，在約旦河西岸城市圖勒凱爾姆舉行的抗議活動中，巴勒斯坦民眾與以色列士兵發生衝突，以色列軍人直接用實彈射殺了一名19歲的巴勒斯坦青年。

其次是巴勒斯坦在絕望中同樣走向強硬，巴以和談幾成泡影。“世紀協議”醞釀三年以來完全被邊緣化的巴勒斯坦自然對協議充滿失望和憤怒。巴勒斯坦總統阿巴斯更是憤怒地將該協議稱為打在巴勒斯坦人臉上的“世紀耳光”，是對巴勒斯坦人民極不公正的協議，將被巴勒斯坦人民扔進歷史的垃圾桶。阿巴斯還於2月1日宣布斷絕巴勒斯坦與以色列和美國之間的“一切關係”，包括安全領域在內一切聯繫。與此同時，巴方各武裝組織也開始進攻以方陣地。2月1日當天晚上，巴方向加沙地帶以東的以色列社區發射多枚火箭彈。被逼到牆角的巴勒斯坦早已宣布美國不再具備調和巴以衝突的資格。如今宣布與美以完全“斷交”，無疑等同宣布巴以和談的“臨床死亡”。“世紀協議”的出台也使國際社會長期以來支持的“兩國方案”名存實亡，巴以和平前景變得更加渺茫和遙遙無期。

最後，美國近年圍堵伊朗及邊緣化巴以問題是“世紀協議”得以出台的重要背景，也是未來推進“世紀協議”的重要基礎。特朗普入主白宮以來，美國中東政策的基石是圍堵伊朗和削弱伊朗在中東地區的影響力。圍繞這一核心目標，美國近年通過安全及經濟合作等多種手段成功將沙特、埃及等地區大國收編到支持美國中東政策的核心或外圍區域。多年來中東地區的核心關切——巴以問題則被持續邊緣化，過去堅定支持巴勒斯坦的地區大國如今態度出現了變化，包括沙特、埃及在內的部分阿拉伯國家對“世紀協議”的反對聲並不高，甚至表示支持美方的“努力”，顯示出阿拉伯國家對巴方的政治支持正在減弱。從巴勒斯坦方面看，由於巴以雙方實力太過懸殊，除了表達憤怒、動員阿拉伯世界及國際外交支持，以及對以色列發起一些規模不大的進攻以外，並沒有太多反制美國和以色列的實際手段。美國和以色列也正是看準了這一點，認定“世紀協議”已然是巴勒斯坦建國的“最後機會”，否則巴方的前景只會更加黯淡。但“世紀協議”能否從草案變成現實，美國的阿拉伯國家支持基本盤是否牢固，以及對巴勒斯坦“以壓促變”是否奏效都還是一個大大的問號。

On Jan. 28, U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled his long-awaited new Middle-East peace plan, which he called, in grandiose fashion, the “Deal of the Century.” But he suffered a diplomatic setback the moment it was launched. With the exception of Israel, a hardcore supporter, there was little applause, not even from America's European allies.The introduction of the “deal” has brought about three new trends in the Middle East.

The first is that Israel is taking a tougher stance on the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was invited to go to the United States to join Trump at the unveiling. That political show was a clear indication that the plan was the product of communication and consultation between the United States and Israel.The deal is biased in favor of Israel, and the agreement, which had not been negotiated with the Palestinian side, meets almost every one of Israel's main demands, including the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel (the future capital of a Palestinian state will be in parts of East Jerusalem), recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Jewish settlements in the West Bank, Palestinian disarmament, Palestinian refugee issues put on hold and other pro-Israel provisions.Encouraged by the content of the agreement and a conceptual map of the Israeli-Palestinian border released on deal launching day, Israel has been working to draw a new map of Israel and is eager to quickly translate the content of the agreement into reality.There is no doubt that with President Trump's support and the grandiose label of the Deal of the Century, Israel will have no qualms about the Israeli-Palestinian issue and will turn a deaf ear to opposition from the Palestinians and the Arab world. When Israeli soldiers shot a 19-year-old Palestinian teenager during a protest in the West Bank city of Tulkarem on Feb. 8, another footnote was added to the story of Israel's hardening position.

The second is that the Palestinians are also getting tougher in their despair, and peace talks are almost in vain. Palestine, which was completely marginalized as the Deal of the Century brewed over the past three years, is naturally disillusioned and angry. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas angrily called the agreement the “slap of the century” with regard to the Palestinians and a highly unjust document that will be thrown in the trash can of history. Abbas also announced on Feb. 1 that “all ties,” including the security sector between the Palestinians and both Israel and the United States would be severed.At the same time, Palestinian armed groups have begun to attack Israeli positions. On the evening of Feb. 1, the Palestinian side fired several rockets at Israeli communities east of the Gaza Strip. Forced into a corner, the Palestinians continue to declare that the United States is no longer eligible to reconcile the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.The announcement of a complete breakup with the United States and Israel is no doubt tantamount to announcing the clinical death of the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.In that sense, the introduction of the Deal of the Century has also rendered lifeless the two-state solution, long supported by the international community. The prospects for peace talks between Israel and Palestine also become more remote and distant.

Finally, the U.S. siege of Iran and the marginalization of the Israel-Palestine issue in recent years provided important background for the introduction of Trump's Deal of the Century and formed an important basis for advancing the agreement in the future.With Trump occupying the White House, the cornerstone of U.S. policy in the Middle East has been to contain Iran and weaken its influence in the region. With this core goal in mind in recent years, the United States has successfully incorporated regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt into core or peripheral areas that support U.S. policy through various means of security and economic cooperation. The Middle East's core concern, the Palestinian-Israeli issue, has been continually marginalized. And the attitude of regional powers that used to be staunch supporters of Palestine, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt and some other Arab countries, has changed also. They are not speaking out against the Deal of the Century and have even expressed support for the U.S. “efforts.” So Arab political support for the Palestinians appears to be waning.From the perspective of the Palestinians, because of the disparity of power, they have little practical means to counter the U.S.-Israel combination, apart from expressing anger, mobilizing Arab and international diplomatic support and launching some small-scale attacks.The United States and Israel say the Deal of the Century is the last chance for Palestinian statehood, and the prospects for the Palestinians will only become bleaker.But whether the Deal of the Century can go from a draft to a reality depends on just how firm support is from other Arab states. Moreover, whether the strategy of pressure for change on the Palestinians will work or not is a big question mark.