美國在韓國部署“薩德”反導系統引發惡性連鎖反應。美韓宣布部署“薩德”後不久，朝鮮再冒天下之大不韙，進行第五次核試驗。美韓隨即升高對朝戰略威脅。日前美國甚至首次派出可攜帶核彈頭的兩架B-1B超音速戰略轟炸機飛抵韓國上空，公開對朝叫板。朝鮮與美韓對立對抗趨於白熱化，半島形勢空前惡化，並嚴重危及東北亞的和平與穩定。美國在韓國部署“薩德”是半島危局的禍源亂根。尤應看到美國在韓部署“薩德”不僅針對朝鮮，還明顯針對中俄，嚴重破壞東北亞安全格局，後患無窮。

冰凍三尺非一日之寒。朝鮮發展核武器引發半島危局升級是美國與朝鮮非理性政策長期激烈碰撞的結果。朝核危機的實質是美朝矛盾長期未解。這兩家是朝核與半島問題的主要當事方，對事態如此惡化都負有直接和主要責任。

美國抱着冷戰思維不放，堅持敵視朝鮮，把朝鮮視為異端中的異端百般打壓：經濟上制裁封鎖，外交上圍困孤立，政治上妖魔化，軍事上重兵壓境，尤其是在韓部署“薩德”，以圖打掉朝鮮的核威懾力，使它痛感面臨致命威脅。朝鮮作出如此強烈反制，在某種意義上可以說是被美國“逼上梁山”。試想，如果在朝鮮第一次核試前，當時的小布殊政府能順應朝方一再要求，改變對朝敵視政策，作出改善關係和安全保障的承諾與行動，朝鮮有可能不會走上擁核之路。但美國沒有這樣做，從而錯失了半島無核化的有利時機。

一個巴掌拍不響。朝鮮劍走偏鋒，在核武化道路上越走越遠，是半島危機升級和亂局加劇的一大要因。面對美國強權欺凌，朝鮮作出必要反制，強化防衛手段，是正當和合理的，但走極端，堅持走核武化道路，是一大失策。朝鮮在軍力上與美韓相比雖有差距，但也擁有強大的常規武器，半島在軍事上實際上保持了某種“恐怖平衡”。如果美韓進攻朝鮮，南北爆發全面戰爭，半島將玉石俱焚，雙方都將遭受毀滅性災難。這是任何一方都無法承受之重。再者，東北亞是中俄地緣戰略要衝，美韓投鼠忌器，擔心引發中俄強烈反應，也不敢貿然對朝鮮動武。在當代歷史條件下，根本不存在朝鮮南侵，美韓北侵的問題。朝鮮明知如此，明知不發展核武也能維護國家安全，卻偏執於“核大國”的虛名，強行發展核武，就毫無正當性可言。朝鮮在擁核道路上越走越遠，以“核大國”自居，並執意將其有核國家地位法律化，固定化，危害了世界核不擴散體系，挑戰了地區和世界安全底線與人類良知，是違法不義之舉，於己於人於世都會帶來危險的不測後果。

解鈴還需系鈴人。挽救危機的鈅匙掌握在美朝手裡。雙方應臨歧而復，儘快重開談判，走和平協商解危之正道。美國宜切實改變對朝敵視政策，首先放棄在韓國部署“薩德”，謀求改善對朝關係，朝鮮則宜體現棄核誠意與行動，這才是解開半島危局癥結，實現半島和東北亞安全與穩定的根本途徑。

On Sept 9, North Korea, in defiance of strong global opposition, conducted its fifth and biggest, nuclear test. This is part of the chain reaction to and fearsome consequence of the US' planned deployment of the THAAD missile defense system in South Korea. The US and South Korea immediately upped the ante: The US recently deployed, for the first time, two B-1B supersonic strategic bombers, which are capable of carrying nuclear warheads, to fly over South Korea as an open intimidation of North Korea. With the latest developments, the confrontation between North and South Korea and the US worsened, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula deteriorated, which poses a grave threat to peace and stability in Northeast Asia. The fact that North Korea is developing nuclear weapons and the US planned deployment of the THAAD missile defense system on the peninsula are the cause and crux of the crisis.The deployment of the THAAD system is not only aimed at North Korea, but China and Russia sense they are targeted as well, despite US denials. This will deal a heavy blow to the security pattern in the Northeast Asia and may cause endless troubles in the future.

As the saying goes, Rome was not built in a day. The Korean nuclear issue and the subsequent escalation of the tensions on the peninsula are actually the consequences of long-term, vehement clashes between the irrational policies of both the US and North Korea. The root of the Korean nuclear crisis is the unsettled conflict between North Korea and the US. As the two parties at the center of the Korean nuclear issue, they bear direct and principal responsibility for the worsening situation.

The US has stuck to a Cold War mentality, being hostile to North Korea, and has considered North Korea the most evil among all evil states. The US has been trying every possible means to suppress North Korea with economic sanctions and blockade, with diplomatic isolation, and political demonization, and military threats aimed at the border of North Korea, in particular, the deployment of the THAAD system in South Korea, ostensibly as to deter North Korea's nuclear advances. All these have made North Korea feel a threat to its survival and take countermeasures.Previously, the George W. Bush administration could have adjusted its hostile policy towards North Korea and worked to satisfy some needs of North Korea by making a security pledge and taking actions to improve ties with North Korea before its first nuclear test in 2006. In that case, North Korea would probably have not embarked on the road to possess nuclear weapons. The US, however, failed to do so and missed the best opportunity of achieving the goal of a nuclear-free Korea peninsula.

As another saying goes, it takes two to tango. The fact that North Korea has stubbornly pursued nuclearization is also a major reason for the worsening situation. In the face of power politics and bullying by the US, North Korea may have reasons to take countermeasures and strengthen its defene, but it is a serious policy mistake if it goes extreme and sticks to the road of nuclearization. North Korea lags far behind the US and South Korea in terms of military power, but it possesses conventional weaponry, and there has existed a kind of military “balance of terror” on the Korean peninsula. If the US and South Korea launch an offensive against North Korea, and a full war between the north and south breaks out, it would mean catastrophe for both sides. This would be a consequence none of them could possibly bear. Furthermore, Northeast Asia is an important region in the geopolitical strategies for China and Russia. The US and South Korea, fearing that war might provoke reactions from China and Russia, dare not hastily wage war against North Korea. Under the current situation, it is not likely that North Korea would invade South Korea, nor likely that the US and South Korea would wage war against the North. North Korea knows this, and knows clearly it could defend its national security without developing nuclear weapons, but it still stubbornly seeks an undeserved fame as a “nuclear state”, and persists in developing nuclear weapons without any justifiable reason. When North Korea goes further down the road of nuclearization, self-claims to be a “nuclear state” and tries to legalize this status, it will endanger the global nuclear non-proliferation system, challenge the security bottom line of the region and the common conscience of the mankind. This is an illegitimate and unjust move, which would cause unforeseeably dangerous consequences to itself, the parties concerned and the entire world.

As a Chinese saying goes, whoever started the trouble should end it. The key to defusing the crisis is in the hands of the US and North Korea. In the face of risks and disagreements, the two sides should restart negotiations, and embark on the road of peaceful consultations to seek settlement to their disputes and ease the crisis. For the US, that means changing its hostile policy toward North Korea by, first of all, abandoning its plan to deploy the THAAD missile defense system in South Korea. For North Korea, it means showing its sincerity and action in abandoning its nuclear weapons program. Only exercising these fundamental options will put an end to the Korean Peninsula crisis and to achieve security and stability there and across Northeast Asia.