Power is a significant index for the assessment of a nation's strength and standing in the world. Hard power and soft power are different and have different impacts. Examining the changes in national power is a rather fiddly job that requires reference to a massive number of parameters, along with gathering solid research and making complex calculations.Meanwhile, because changes are closely related to factors that define a nation's position on the international stage, measuring and comparing the relative power of major countries is unavoidable.
Donald Trump and the “make America great again” crowd have been exerting a sophisticated influence on U.S. power and its global position. In the era of major power competition, this change alone is worth China's attention. Through meticulous observation of Trump's policies, one can take the pulse of U.S. national power and broadly track its trajectory.
From the “unipolar" status the U.S. has enjoyed since the end of the Cold War to the collapse of its hegemonic order, the country's relative decline in power and position has been a settled conclusion. The MAGA slogan that Trump and his Republican populists use indicates that they acknowledge the fact that the U.S. is declining and are determined to revitalize it.
Therefore, Trump's primary goal is to strengthen America's hard power. Economically, this involves rejuvenating its manufacturing industry, creating job opportunities, expanding overseas markets and reducing the national debt. Tariff policy is just one of the links, but the extreme volatile nature of tariffs has created global supply chain chaos. The U.S. will suffer rising inflation, insufficient supply and other negative impacts, but there's no denying that Trump will have gained some benefits given the country's dominant position and ability to apply pressure in one-on-one negotiations.Some countries have promised to reduce tariffs on U.S. goods, while many American multinationals have increased investment within the U.S. or are considering doing so in light of the geopolitical uncertainties and tariff impacts. In the long run, tariffs may will serve to drive the renewed growth of the U.S. manufacturing sector — high-end manufacturing in particular.
In the technology sector, Trump's deregulation of high-tech companies, his investment in AI and the expansion of overseas markets are conducive to U.S. technological innovation. The so-called Magnificent Seven continue to be sought by capital and hence have become the driving force of the rally in the U.S. stock-market, which has largely offset the impact of Trump's "reciprocal tariffs." As long as the bubble of the U.S. high-tech industry doesn't burst, the ongoing round of tech innovation and industrialization will continue upward.
In the military sector, Trump's slogan of “peace through strength” has led to a military buildup: The Pentagon announced a $1 trillion defense budget for fiscal 2026. In view of the Russia-Ukraine and Iran-Israel conflicts, Washington is putting more emphasis on building production capacity. In pursuing its policy of strategic containment of China, the U.S. is adjusting its military deployment, with ever-increasing investment in heavy-asset military branches, including the Navy and Air Force.To some U.S. strategists, the combination of a manufacturing rejuvenation, high-tech leadership and an expansion of military capacity will help maintain and promote the country's power, competitiveness and deterrence, in addition to consolidating its hegemonic position.
Even without regard to the America's alliance system and institutional hegemony, an absolute gain in hard power may not give it a head start over China; this remains a question subject to differing opinions. Nonetheless, what is certain is that Trump is damaging the country's soft power. From the withdrawals of the United States from important international organizations to cutoffs in international aid, the shifting of financial burdens to U.S. allies and disparagement of values Americans once held dear, Trump appears to be sabotaging the American image and soft power.
As for the Palestine-Israel issue, Washington offers unprincipled support for the Netanyahu government while turning a blind eye to the misery of Gaza's civilians, which has not only made a dent in America's international image but increased the discontent of American liberals.Trump has long since shed the fig leaf of being “a president for all” in his governance. He is reinforcing his political base and turning America further to the right by forcefully advancing a right-wing populist agenda. His mass deportations of undocumented migrants, his sweeping scrutiny of international students and his aggressive promotion of the Big Beautiful Bill — which the administration claims will take from the rich and give to the poor — only serve to exacerbate domestic tensions, in addition to crippling the country's internal cohesion and attractiveness to outsiders. It's no wonder that Joseph Nye, known as the father of the “soft power” concept, was critical of Trump before he died in May.
The United Nations is unable to maintain world peace. Power politics and the law of the jungle have surged in appeal rather than receding. As the international community descends further into anarchy, fists matter more than principles. Trump has continued to interfere in the conflict between Israel and Iran, covering for Israel's military actions during negotiations and directly ordering U.S. airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. He wants to broker a cease-fire via coercion, completely stripping Iran of dignity. To Trump, in this “nasty world,” the United States should follow Machiavelli, as represented by the lion and fox metaphor, where moral preaching and image appeal are good for nothing.
Despite its soft power losses, the U.S. retains its strong hard power, supported by a solid system of alliances. Its European allies continue to rely on it, and NATO remains a military machine dancing to its own tune. A few Western countries are hopeful that a “normal America” will return after Trump. But the bipartisan power rotation in the U.S. has not changed.If the Democratic Party returns to the White House, it will bring back liberal and internationalist policies to a degree, so the U.S. could see a restoration of its soft power. For instance, as long as American universities remain competitive in research, innovation and teaching, they will continue to attract international talent. If the U.S. government becomes more confident and open in attracting immigrants and international students, the country will be able to continue drawing global talent and labor at scale.But without hard power, soft power will have nothing to attach itself to. As the saying goes, without the skin, where can the hair grow? While Trump focuses on beefing up American hard power, the Democratic Party is willing to reinstate the damaged soft power, which is viable in some arenas.
What worries the American establishment and anti-Trump forces is that Trump's use of brute force to bully U.S. allies and rivals will probably accelerate the “de-Americanization” process in other countries and hasten the arrival of a multipolar world in the long run. This worry persists even as Trump makes quick gains in the short term. The U.S. will see absolute growth in its hard power, but changes in the configuration of global forces will put a strain on it.China needs to observe the changes in American hard and soft power and learn from experience. Many scholars use the terms “hegemonic rule” and “benevolent rule” to distinguish between American and Chinese policy approaches. At a time when the international order is shifting and China-U.S. competition is intensifying, Beijing continues to strengthen its own power and concentrate on its own development. It will only overtake the U.S. on curves or by switching lanes when necessary.
Compared with Trump's reliance on force, China prefers fair persuasion and would only strike back if left with no other choice. China doesn't need to make a detour to build up its hard power at the cost of soft power, as Trump has. Instead, it should enhance both kinds of power and leverage its soft power gains to reinforce its hard power. China's three major global initiatives — the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative and the Global Civilization Initiative — will not only help improve its influence but will contribute to its hard power buildup through win-win cooperation.China-U.S. competition is fueled by overall national strength. In addition to growing its own hard and soft power, it should pay attention to the evolving politics in the United States, as well as the changes in attitude by U.S. allies, and work to create a united front around the world.
