周建成：

吳心伯教授，感謝您邀請我來到復旦大學。首先，我們回顧一下六年前的情況，也就是2019年。當時您認為，由於經濟安全和政治層面存在的結構性爭端，中美關係陷入了一種結構性困境。如今這種困境是否必然加劇呢？

吳心伯：

答案是肯定的，而且我們過去幾年確實看到這一趨勢。安全方面的摩擦有所增加，我們看到兩國在台灣海峽或南海發生衝突的風險不斷上升。政治方面，過去幾年拜登一直在宣揚民主對抗威權的敘事。因此我們看到，兩國在政治、經濟和安全領域的差距不斷加深並擴大。所以我認為，與2019年之前的30年相比，我們現在正朝着截然不同的方向發展。

周建成：

我們知道，與特朗普第一屆政府時期相比，此次貿易戰涉及的國家和行業範圍更廣，關稅也更高。您認為與六年前相比，中國從與特朗普總統的互動中吸取了哪些教訓？特朗普這次的做法有何不同？

吳心伯：

說到關稅工具的效用，我認為特朗普的態度與第一任期是一致的。他仍然堅信關稅是推動自己國內外政策議程的有力工具。因此，在第二任期里，他在更廣泛的領域運用這一手段，不僅針對中國或者幾個國家，而是幾乎涉及世界上所有國家。這是一方面。其次，有哪些區別？如果回顧他第一任期時的對華政策，會發現他採取的是漸進的、不斷加碼的策略，一步一步地加大對中國的關注。但這一次截然不同，短短10天內，對華關稅就從20%上升到現在的120%。這是對中國施加極大壓力，與第一任期相比，其策略截然不同。

周建成：

我們此刻是在復旦美國研究中心進行對話。該中心成立於1985年，幾乎和中美雙邊關係一樣悠久。您擁有非常深刻的見解，始終認為信任是雙方共同面臨的問題。那麼在不斷變化的雙邊關係以及不斷變化的世界裡，互信是否仍有可挽救的餘地？

吳心伯：

我認為，目前中美之間的互信充其量為零，甚至可以說是負值，這要歸咎於特朗普第一屆政府上台後七八年里發生的事情。與此同時，我們看到兩國、兩個社會之間的猜疑、不信任，甚至敵意日益增長。我認為，這是非常令人遺憾的趨勢，不僅對我們兩國，而且對世界其他國家也是如此，因為中美是世界上最大的兩個經濟體，也是兩個擁有核武庫的大國。因此，如果我們因為日益增長的不信任、誤判甚至敵意而走向衝突，整個世界都會蒙受損失。

周建成：

我們經常聽到像您這樣的學者談論戰略競爭。我想討教有關戰略耐心的問題。您認為，什麼是戰略耐心？

吳心伯：

戰略耐心如今幾乎成了奢侈品，因為政客們越來越缺乏耐心。看看特朗普，他希望實現一個目標，時間周期可不是一年，而是一個月、一周，甚至24小時。我認為，這將成為許多國家領導人的普遍現象，在相互交往時，戰略耐心成為他們指望不上的奢侈品，特別是特朗普總統，他往往只用極短時間思考其政策和政治議程。

周建成：

放眼整個世界，我們顯然正步入一個充滿轉型和不確定性的時期。為了迎接這個即將到來的全新世界，我們需要在情感、學識和其他方面培養哪些品質？

吳心伯：

這個問題問得好。我認為這並非政策問題，而是關乎我們的思維方式和智慧。現在，我們需要改變思維方式。我們不應該把思維局限於國界，不應該從零和博弈角度來思考與其他國家的關係，因為我們生活在一個越來越受他國影響的世界中。而且，你無法想像一個國家，無論它多麼強大，只顧自己的繁榮安全，而不考慮其他因素。這是不可能的。所以，我們真的需要超越國界進行思考，思考與其他國家建立雙贏的關係，這是應對諸多政策挑戰的關鍵。

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James Chau:

Professor Wu Xinbo, thanks very much for having me here on campus at Fudan University. Let's go back to six years ago when we spoke in 2019, you described the U.S.-China relationship then as one of a structural dilemma due to the parallel structural disputes on the economic security and also political fronts. Has that dilemma necessarily deepened today?

Wu Xinbo:

Well, the answer is yes, as we have seen over the last several years. On the economic front, I mean, there have been more frictions on the security front, we see the rising risk of some conflict between two countries in the Taiwan Strait or in South China Sea. And politically, I mean, over the last several years, Biden's vision had promoted the narrative of democracy versus authoritarian. So we can see this kind of gap between two countries — in political, economic and security realms — has deepened and widened. So I think we are moving in a very much different direction compared with, you know, the first 30 years before maybe 2019, when we talk about this issue.

James Chau:

When we look at the trade war now, we can see a broader set of countries and industries and larger tariffs involved compared to the first Trump administration. What do you think China has learned from its interactions with President Trump from six years ago compared to today, and what feels different about the Trump approach this time around?

Wu Xinbo:

Well, when it comes to the utility of tariff as an instrument, I think Trump has been very consistent compared with his first term. He still strongly believes that tariff is a very useful instrument in pushing his domestic and foreign policy agenda. So this is why in his second term, he basically used this leverage in a much broader context, not just touching on China or several countries, but almost to everybody in the world. So that's one thing. And second, what are the differences? Is that if you look at approaches to China in his first term, that was a gradual, escalatory approach, step by step, you know, to raise attention on China, but this time is very much different. Within a matter of 10 days, the tariff imposed on China went from 20% to now maybe 120%. This is a very drastic pressure on China that shows a very different tactic as compared with his first term.

James Chau:

We're speaking here at the Center for American Studies, which was established all the way back in 1985, so it's almost as old as the bilateral relationship itself. With all that insight, you always speak about the mutual issue being trust. Do you think that mutual trust is still salvageable in not only a changing bilateral relationship, but also a changing world?

Wu Xinbo:

Well, I think the mutual trust between China-U.S. is at best zero at the moment, or even negative because of what happened in the last seven or eight years since Trump's first administration. At the same time, we have seen the growing suspicion, mistrust, and even hostility between the two countries and two societies. Assume this is a very unfortunate development, not only for our two countries, but for the rest of the world, because here are the two largest economies in the world, here are the two major countries with nuclear arsenals. So if we are going to head to a conflict because of the growing mistrust, misjudgment, and even hostility, the entire world will suffer from it.

James Chau:

We often hear scholars like yourself speaking of strategic competition, but I want to ask you about strategic patience. What does that look like to you?

Wu Xinbo:

Well, strategic patience is something like a luxury these days, because politicians are becoming more and more impatient. I mean, if you look to Trump, he wants to get something, you know, not in one year, but one month or one week, or even 24 hours. So, I think you know this is going to be a common phenomenon for many country leaders, strategic patience is not the luxury they can count on when dealing with each other, and this is especially in the case when you know President Trump thinks about his policy, his political agenda, in a very short time frame.

James Chau:

Let's look at the world as a whole. We're obviously moving into a period of transition and uncertainty. What are the qualities that we need, emotionally, intellectually, and otherwise, that we must cultivate now to prepare for this different kind of world that we're heading towards?

Wu Xinbo:

Well, this is a good question. I don't think it's a policy issue. It is really an issue related to our mindset and wisdom. I mean, today we need to change our way of thinking. We should not, you know, confine our thinking to national boundaries. We should not think about relations with other countries in a zero-sum perspective, because we are living in a world that we are more and more subject to the influence coming from other countries. And also, you know, you cannot imagine that a single country, no matter how powerful you are, you know, you just enjoy your prosperity and security without taking into consideration other actors. That is impossible. So I think we need, we really need to think beyond national boundaries. We really need to think about win-win, you know, relations with other countries. I think that's key to deal with many, many policy challenges.

Click to watch the interview with Professor Wu Xinbo