Donald Trump formally defeated Kamala Harris to become president-elect of the United States with 312 of the total 538 electoral votes on Dec. 17 — a high for the last three general elections, which have all had narrow margins. Fewer than half the voters chose Trump, whose victory was based on America's quirky state-by-state electoral vote system. So his victory was far short of a landslide or mandate, as he has claimed. Trump's Democratic opponent trailed by a mere 1.5 percentage points. Nevertheless, Trump's victory margin gives him a good start for his administration.
Meanwhile, the Republican Party retained control of the House of Representatives by a razor-thin margin (218 of the 435 seats), with the possibility of moderate crossover votes for Democrat positions rendering Republican power uncertain. Republicans also won a majority of Senate seats, potentially clearing some obstacles for Trump.
The U.S. economy was healthy and stable in 2024, with growth of 2.8 to 3 percent. Inflation dropped to 2.4 percent, unemployment fell to 4.1 percent and the U.S. dollar strengthened. Plus, Trump 2.0 should have accumulated experience and learned lessons during his previous four years in office and become more mature in dealing with domestic and international affairs.
Finally, Trump has been choosing cabinet members and organizing his administration, making significant progress by the middle December. These are favorable conditions as he assumes office.
Challenges to Trump's wisdom
Trump 2.0 faces a variety of challenges including:
• How to handle domestic issues such as heated partisan struggles, deepening racial contradictions and a widening social divide.
• How to gain the upper hand in competition with a stronger and more experienced China
• How to realize his promise to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 24 hours after his inauguration.
• How to end the Palestine-Israel conflict and restore peace and stability in the Middle East.
• How to de-escalate the tense situation on the Korean Peninsula.
• How to dispose of Biden's legacy of alliances and exert control over allies and partners.
Foreign policy: Trump 2.0 will probably continue to implement his “America first” strategy for making America “great again.” His regional strategies, including the Indo-Pacific Strategy to contain China, will also likely continue.
Ambiguity on China: Trump has mentioned a number of possible policy positions regarding China. At a news briefing in December, he remarked: “Because China and the United States can together solve all of the problems of the world, you think about it. So it's very important.” This might suggest that Trump 2.0 will have a different policy than Trump 1.0. Whatever change might occur, his position that China is a long-term strategic competitor will not change, nor will his goal of holding back China's development and to outcompete it.
Tariffs: Trump 2.0 might continue to impose extra tariffs on China's export products to force it to make more economic concessions. He might continue to increase the U.S. defense budget to strengthen the country's all-domain military advantages over China and adopt Biden's “small yard, high fence” strategy to prohibit the export of high-tech products and civil-military dual-use technology to hinder China's science and technology development.
Cooperation: Trump 2.0 might also cooperate with China on such issues as global climate change, developing AI rules, denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, overall nuclear disarmament and ending the Russia-Ukraine and Palestine-Israel conflicts. It's also possible that a more stable China-U.S. relationship will emerge.
Russia relations: Trump 2.0 might soften U.S.-Russia relations with a view toward ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Candidate Trump promised to end the conflict within 24 hours if he became president. Now it's time to for him to fulfill his promise. Trump 2.0 has to establish some trust with Putin before he can mediate between Russia and Ukraine. But it will be rather difficult for him to convince Putin to make major concessions, even though Trump claims the two had positive “chemistry.”
Middle East: Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are firm supporters of Israel. The Palestine-Israel conflict has left at least 45,129 Palestinians dead and 107,338 wounded since Oct. 7, 2023. A resolution for a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip was approved by most of the UN Security Council on Nov. 20, — but the United States vetoed the measure. Israel has spread its war fire into Syria instead of ceasing fire in Gaza. Trump 2.0 might make use of Israeli military attacks to weaken Russia's and Turkey's influence and regain U.S. dominance in the Middle East by supporting Israel to end the conflict in a way that benefits both the United States and Israel.
North Korea: Trump met North Korea's Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un three times four years ago and might resume U.S.-DPRK summits to stabilize the situation on the Korean Peninsula. The root cause of the ever-worsening situation there is the Nuclear Consultative Group established in the Washington Declaration and the trilateral security cooperation partnership created at Camp David Summit in 2023 — which brings the two Koreas, north and south, to the brink of war.
Trump claims that he had maintained good personal relations with Kim Jong-un and might put Biden's political legacy aside to resume the summits to ease the increasing tension.
Alliances: Trump 1.0 thought the U.S. had taken on too much responsibility for its allies and demanded that they share more of the burden. Four years later, NATO member states have met Trump's demand that they increase their defense budgets to 2 percent of their GDP figures, owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Japan and the Republic of Korea are spending more for the U.S. forces stationed in their countries. Trump 2.0 might discard Biden's alliance legacy altogether and continue to require NATO member states to increase their defense budgets.
Japan and the ROK would have to assume all the costs of U.S. forces stationed locally. And the trilateral security cooperation partnership might end up on the shelf and exist in name only.
The most prominent characteristic of the incoming U.S. president is uncertainty. We must drop all illusions and get ready to compete so that we can sit tight in the fishing boat and steer it to safety despite the rising wind and waves that Trump's second term portends.
