Volodymyr Zelenskyy's “victory plan” is closely intertwined with the evolving dynamics of relations between China, the United States and Russia. To achieve his aims, Zelenskyy must either wait for or help create the right external conditions.During the United Nations General Assembly, Zelenskyy sought the support of the U.S. and its Western allies for his victory plan. Although the specifics of the plan remain unrevealed, it likely seeks to increase military aid from the U.S. and its allies, while globally intensifying Russia's isolation. In Zelenskyy's view, only through such measures can Russia be compelled to engage in peace negotiations. However, uncertainty is a constant in international relations, and no one can predict the cost or likelihood of his achieving the plan's objectives. Thus, any assessment of Zelenskyy's plan must focus on external conditions.
Continuity of U.S. support
Ukraine's attack on Russia's Kursk region may have embarrassed the Kremlin, but it has not forced Russia to back down. On the contrary, Russia has expanded its gains in eastern Ukraine. It is widely acknowledged that Zelenskyy's victory plan relies heavily on U.S. backing, which in turn may hinge on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November. Should Donald Trump win, the prospects for the plan could dim considerably. Trump has not only mocked Zelenskyy as “the greatest salesman of all time” but has also refused to meet with him.At the General Assembly, Zelenskyy presented his plan to U.S. President Joe Biden and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris (the sitting vice president). If Harris wins, the chances of Zelenskyy achieving his goals would improve. Consequently, Zelenskyy is expected to intensify his lobbying efforts with the Biden administration, hoping to expand aid and position Ukraine to launch a military offensive in 2025.To complement the military effort, his victory plan will likely call for a global political and economic offensive, led by the U.S. and its Western allies, to isolate Russia comprehensively. By adding significantly to America's sunk costs, even a Trump administration might find it difficult to swiftly reverse the country's Ukraine policy.
A battle of wills
Reflecting on Russia's so-called special military operation launched two years ago, it's clear that Russia underestimated both Ukraine's resolve and capacity to resist, as well as the West's unity in support of Ukraine's defense. That misjudgment has cost Russia dearly in the ongoing war, yet it remains confident in its perceived advantages.First, Russia believes, based on historical interactions, that Western governments are prone to compromise. The longer the war drags on, the more war fatigue will grow in Western societies, making it harder for those governments to sustain their current level of support for Ukraine.Second, in a war of attrition, Russia's Keynesian military approach may provide an edge over Ukraine, making continued fighting the optimal strategy. Russian decision-makers view Zelenskyy's victory plan as an unacceptable attempt to impose peace on Russia. For Russia, victory is the only acceptable outcome and the only basis for negotiations with the West.Third, Russia's military rebuilding is progressing faster than Western analysts expected. According to a report by the Atlantic Council in September, Russia's military restructuring — covering weapons upgrades, new equipment and personnel — is proceeding more rapidly than anticipated. Recently, President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia's military would expand to 1.5 million troops two years ahead of schedule. Simultaneously, Russia has begun deploying modernized main battle tanks, with plans to supply 1,000 tanks annually to its forces.
Triangular relationship
Zelenskyy's victory plan is tightly entwined with the dynamics of China-U.S.-Russia relations. The state of bilateral U.S.-Russia and China-Russia relations significantly impacts the stability of China-U.S. ties. Regarding Ukraine, China has consistently advocated for a political solution. However, the U.S. and its Western allies are attempting to impose substantial economic costs on both China and Russia through a combination of long-arm jurisdiction, high-tech export restrictions and international opinion. These efforts aim to pressure China into altering its stance and breaking the deadlock in Ukraine. In his speech at the United Nations, Zelenskyy argued that if countries stopped supporting Russia, the war would end quickly. Conversely, if countries ceased supporting Ukraine, Ukraine would soon face annihilation.
While Zelenskyy's victory plan is closely linked to China-U.S.-Russia relations, these dynamics are not the decisive factor. What truly matters are the positions of Ukraine and Russia in resolving the crisis. In foreign relations, China adheres to two complementary policy principles: an independent foreign policy of peace and a modernization path based on peaceful development.Without considering the policy stances and interests of other nations, cooperation between countries becomes untenable. Thus, for Zelenskyy to consummate his victory plan he must either wait for or create favorable external conditions.
