在成立後，上海合作組織得到了穩步發展。截至2024年7月阿斯塔納峰會召開前，上海合作組織已有正式成員國、觀察員國、對話夥伴國26個，地理範圍涵蓋中亞、南亞、中東、東歐、南高加索、中南半島。在阿斯塔納峰會後，上海合作組織將從26個國家擴大到29個。不斷擴大的組織規模迫切需要上海合作組織對創建之初的治理理念和結構進行改革，而阿斯塔納峰會將是開啟上海合作組織變革的大門。

現實促動轉變

如果把現在的上海合作組織與其成立之初相比較，我們就可以發現，該組織奉行的多邊主義宗旨已然發生了重大變化，即從加強成員國間的相互信任和睦鄰友好升級到尋求建立包容性對話與合作、以實現可持續發展和繁榮。這種變化主要源於以下兩個原因：

內因是組織規模的擴大。目前，上海合作組織成員國GDP約佔世界三分之一、領土面積約佔歐亞大陸的60%、人口約佔世界的42%。成員國、觀察員國、對話夥伴國的政治制度、經濟發展水平、安全觀、文化屬性各不相同，這種特性要求上海合作組織轉向建設包容開放的多邊主義，從而實現“雙贏、多贏、共贏”。

外因則是國際體系的壓力讓上海合作組織變得具有吸引力。美國在國際體系中超強的“戰略優勢”讓其領導人越來越不願意客觀地認識它國的訴求，相反，為保持自己的“戰略優勢”，美國往往對它國採取打壓、孤立等反應過度的措施。因此，如果不能在對外事務中削弱利己主義並與其它國家平等相處，那麼美國領導人可能永遠不能理解為什麼會有國家願意通過上海合作組織對沖美國在國際體系中製造的壓力。

變革的方向

合作紅利是所有多邊機制保持持久生命力的關鍵，而有效推進各項合作措施落地是上海合作組織產生合作紅利的必要前提。為此，筆者認為，上海合作組織的變革方向包括但不限於以下幾點：

一是，提升協作水平，優化工作機制和決策程序，提高決策效率和執行力。現階段，上海合作組織需要突出元首峰會的引領作用，並強化政府首腦（總理）理事會的監督執行能力，保障各項合作落地。因而，《阿斯塔納宣言》將提出改進上海合作組織的工作建議來提高組織的議事決策效率。對此，現任上海合作組織秘書長張明表示，阿斯塔納峰會將成為組織發展歷程中的新里程碑。

二是，加強核心區建設。在2023年上海合作組織新德里峰會上，成員國元首一致認為中亞地區是上合組織的“核心區”。事實上，上海合作組織的發展離不開中亞地區國家的支持，而作為上海合作組織重要活動區域的中亞地區也需要擺脫因組織規模擴大而被邊緣化的現狀。

三是，聚焦綠色多邊主義。目前，傳統安全和經濟合作依然是上海合作組織的重點合作方向。但從未來的發展來看，成員國將會在應對氣候變化、減排和綠色轉型等合作領域達成更多共識，這些合作領域會是推動上海合作組織變革的核心動力。

變革中的挑戰

上海合作組織對內遵循“上海精神”，對外奉不結盟、不針對第三方和開放的原則。但受美國與中國、俄羅斯、伊朗、白俄羅斯等成員國關係的影響，上海合作組織常被貼上反美（或反西方）的標籤，從而使得變革中的上海合作組織將面臨諸多挑戰。

一是，組織規模的擴大導致緩衝的安全空間縮小。在本屆阿斯塔納峰會上吸納白俄羅斯為正式成員國後，上海合作組織的影響將擴大到北約東翼，並與北約的安全空間重疊。

二是，組織戰略自主性的增強加大了重建世界和平的分歧。除了《阿斯塔納宣言》外，本屆峰會還將通過《關於世界團結爭取公正和平與和諧倡議草案》。這份倡議在一定程度上可以看作是對G7集團普利亞峰會公報的回應。

三是，“新冷戰”思維增加了全球戰略穩定的脆弱性。“新冷戰”思維產生於美國國內政治壓力，而不是外部安全利益。大多數美國政治精英認為，俄羅斯正在破壞西方在第二次世界大戰後建立並在冷戰結束時重建的國際體系，而中俄關係將挑戰西方的安全利益和價值觀，美國及其西方盟友必須聯合起來遏制中國和俄羅斯。顯然，“新冷戰”思維將會拖累上海合作組織的變革。

國際組織的每一次變革都是國際體系互動的結果。可以說，上海合作組織變革成為維護地區和平、穩定、繁榮、發展的建設性力量正是現實與未來發展的需要。

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation has enjoyed stable development since its inception in 2001. As of July this year, it has grown to include 26 official member states, observer states and dialogue partners, encompassing nations in Central Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, South Caucasus, and the Indochina peninsula. Following the summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, membership in the regional organization will grow from 26 to 29. With an ever-expanding scale comes an urgent need for the organization to reform the governance philosophy and structure that was established in its early days. The Astana Summit is expected to provide an opportunity for internal transformation.

Need to transform

A review of SCO's past and present status reveals significant changes in the organization's principle of multilateralism. Its focus has expanded from strengthening mutual trust and enhancing good neighborliness among member states to forging inclusive dialogue and cooperation for the sake of sustainable development and greater prosperity.This transformation is driven by two factors:

First, the SCO is expanding its geographic reach. At present, SCO member states account for one-third of the world's GDP, 60 percent of the Eurasian landmass and 42 percent of the world's population. Given different political systems, levels of economic development and perceptions of security and cultural background in the member states, observer states and dialogue partners, there is a need to adopt inclusive and open multilateralism to achieve a win for all.

Second, pressure from the international system enhances the appeal of the SCO. Because of the strategic advantage of the United States in the international system, American leaders are increasingly reluctant to recognize the needs of other countries. They often act aggressively to maintain their country's advantage by, for example, suppressing and isolating others. If U.S. leaders can't move beyond the self-centered approach in international affairs and learn to treat other nations as equals, they may never understand why the SCO appeals to many: They are seeking a counterbalance to the pressures exerted by Washington in the international system.

Direction of change

The effective implementation of cooperation projects is essential for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation to generate dividends of cooperation. These hold the key to the enduring vitality of multilateral mechanisms. In this context, I believe that the transformation of the SCO should include the following aspects at least:

First, it should maximize collaboration and optimize working mechanisms and decision-making procedures. It should also bolster decision-making efficiency and execution. The organization needs to emphasize the leading role of its summits and strengthen the supervision and execution capabilities of the Council of Heads of Government (prime ministers) to ensure the effective implementation of cooperation projects.The Astana Declaration, which expected to be published at the end of the summit in July, will contain suggestions for improving the organization's efficiency in deliberation and decision-making. As Secretary-General Zhang Ming said, the Astana Summit will become a milestone in the history of the SCO.

Second, it should strengthen the development of the core area. At the 2023 summit in New Delhi, the heads of member states unanimously agreed that Central Asia is the core area of the SCO. In fact, the organization's development depends on the support of countries in this area, and now these countries need to address the ongoing challenge of marginalization associated with the SCO's geographic expansion.

Third, it should devote resources to green multilateralism. At present, issues of traditional security and economy remain the main areas of cooperation within the SCO. Going forward, the member states need to reach greater consensus in more areas, such as climate change, emissions reduction and green transformation. Cooperation in these sectors has the potential to become the locomotive for the transformation of the SCO.

Challenges to transformation

Internally, the SCO follows the Shanghai Spirit; externally, it adheres to the principles of non-alignment, non-targeting of third parties and openness. However, because of shifts in the relationships between the United States and some SCO member states — such as China, Russia, Iran and Belarus — the SCO is often labeled anti-American or anti-Western, which poses many challenges to its transformation efforts.

First, the SCO's expansion has led to the shrinkage of the buffer zone. With Belarus set to join the organization as a formal member at the Astana Summit, the organization's reach will expand to the eastern flank of NATO's sphere of influence and overlap with its buffer zone.

Second, divisions in efforts to rebuild world peace may intensify as the SCO increases its strategic autonomy. In addition to the Astana Declaration, this summit is expected to adopt the Initiative on World Unity for a Just Peace and Harmony, which is seen as a response to the G7 Leaders' Communique released at the summit in Apulia, Italy.

Third, the rise of a new cold war mentality has increased global strategic instability. This mindset stems from domestic political pressure in the United States, rather than from external security interests. According to most American political elites, the United States and its Western allies must unite to contain China and Russia because Russia is destroying the international system established by the West after World War II (rebuilt at the end of the Cold War) and because China-Russia relations threaten to challenge the security interests and values of the Western world. Obviously, this mentality is likely to slow the pace of transformation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

Every transformation of international organizations is shaped by interactions in the international system. Within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the need to transform into a constructive force for regional peace, stability, prosperity and development aligns with the need for development, now and in the future.