朝鮮最高領導人金正恩與韓國總統文在寅在平壤舉行了兩人之間五個月來的第三次會晤。

這次會晤的重點在於商談緩解南北軍事緊張的實際措施。雙方簽署了《板門店宣言軍事領域履行協議》。會晤發表的共同宣言決定，為了實現半島永久和平，停止包括非武裝地帶在內對峙地域的軍事敵對關係，將儘快啟動朝韓軍事共同委員會，防止偶發性武力衝突。

在半島無核化方面，雙方強調要儘快取得實質性進展。朝方承諾在有關國家專家見證下永久廢棄東倉里引擎試驗場和導彈發射台，重申如果美國採取相應措施，朝方有誠意採取永久廢棄寧邊核設施等追加措施。

在經濟合作領域，雙方商定年底前舉行東、西海岸線鐵路及道路連接工程奠基儀式，在條件具備時優先恢復運營開城工業園區和金剛山旅遊項目，同時就成立西海經濟共同特區和東海觀光共同特區問題進行協商。

作為重要姿態，金正恩臨時調整安排，親赴機場迎接文在寅，並首次在朝鮮勞動黨中央委員會總部大樓舉行北南首腦正式會談。會晤前，朝韓在開城工業園區設立了聯合聯絡處。

第三次“金文會”得以舉行最重要的背景，是金正恩與美國總統特朗普在新加坡舉行會晤後，朝美商談落實《朝美聯合聲明》的工作進展不順。特朗普政府不斷施壓，要求朝鮮在技術上並不可行的極短時間內棄毀核能力、交出彈道導彈項目成果，並按美方意圖將核導研發團隊人員送至境外安置，同時在朝方最需要的締結和平條約、提供安全保障方面不願做出實質承諾。儘管此一期間，金正恩與特朗普再次互致信函，但美方取消蓬佩奧國務卿再次訪朝的計劃，顯示雙方談判陷入卡頓。

這種延宕令金正恩頗為焦躁，因其急於實踐朝鮮勞動黨七大和七屆三中全會確定的路線調整，而朝美關係不獲實質改善，兩國談判不取得突破，朝鮮迫切渴求的國際制裁就難以鬆動，經濟改革顯效所仰賴的外部資金就無法入朝。事實上，進入7月以後，特朗普政府一方面與朝鮮繼續談判，一方面堅持制裁朝鮮不放鬆，同時多次通過情報機構、輿論機器散播朝核設施仍在偷偷運轉的信息，還聯合日、韓、澳、英、法等國加強海上巡邏，以斷絕朝鮮規避制裁走私燃料和特供商品的海上通道。

在此情況下，金正恩只能在自力更生保持經濟增長的同時，寄希望於通過吸引韓國、中國、俄羅斯的支持，增強自身與美國打交道的地位，進而真正撬動美國。

連月來，金正恩密集視察國內各地生產和民生設施，指導具體工作，意在對內對外釋放堅定不移將治國重心轉移到發展經濟上來的決心。金正恩也力邀中國最高領導人於9月9日朝鮮建國70周年之際訪朝，還一度考慮赴俄羅斯符拉迪沃斯托克出席第四屆東方經濟論壇。中方最終由中共中央政治局常委、全國人大常委會委員長栗戰書作為習近平的特別代表訪朝，朝方仍利用接待之機盡顯“傳承並盡全力發展朝中友誼”的姿態。

朝美後續談判的延宕同樣令文在寅政府倍感焦慮。文在寅出於理想主義信念，上台後用最快速度祭出“新陽光政策”，在改善南北關係方面賭上全部政治生命，目前背負着強大的國內民意期待，承擔著反對派漸增的質疑壓力。文在寅與朝鮮大幅改善關係的做法走在了美國前頭，與美方溝通不足，已招致特朗普政府不悅。在第三次“金文會”前，美方一度對包括韓方在內的同朝接觸協調過於密切的各方進行敲打，宣稱恢復美韓大規模軍演是“分分鐘的事”。內外雙重壓力之下，文在寅別無選擇，急於推動半島和平進程向前走，以印證自己戰略決策的正確性。

金正恩、文在寅均高調宣揚第三次會晤取得成功，文在寅甚至單方面宣稱韓朝已事實上結束軍事敵對狀態。兩人並在會晤次日攜手共登白頭山（中國境內叫長白山），在天池之畔手牽手舉過頭頂合影，發出了朝韓“自主”推動半島和平進程的強烈信號。金正恩還刻意把可以在解決核導問題過程中接受國際監督作為成果送給文在寅，以助其在下一步同特朗普進行協調時有所呈讓。特朗普聞訊後發推表示讚賞，稱這“激動人心”。

但是，朝韓真能主導半島未來命運嗎？這仍是一個疑問。

放在更大的框架下，第三次“金文會”所取得的成果只能被視作“小小的進展”，未來半島形勢的關鍵仍在於美朝協商談判能否在棄核換安全、無核保安全方面取得突破性成果。在美方不願在向朝鮮提供何種安全保障的問題上鬆口、朝方暫停核導計劃的迄有步驟也不足以滿足美方要求的情況下，其他樂見朝鮮改革的各方只能繼續遵守聯合國安理會制裁決議，無法尋獲更多向朝鮮提供經濟支援的“灰色空間”，試圖將朝鮮融入其中的東北亞區域合作新局面也難以落到實處。

中國有意在半島無核化進程中發揮更大協調作用，但特朗普政府對此深懷戒心。中美貿易摩擦的不斷升級、戰略關係的逐漸下滑也把中美在朝核問題上的協調置於進退維谷的選擇困境。

美朝仍在接觸，醞釀舉行第二次“特金會”。目前的消息是，會晤有可能以金正恩首次出席聯合國大會為契機舉行，特朗普也可能直接向金正恩發出到訪白宮的邀請。但無論如何，形式都不是最重要的。現在，球重新回到美方一邊，半島和平的“機會之窗”能否繼續敞開，取決於美方的誠意。

The DPRK’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un and ROK President Moon Jae-in met for the third time in Pyongyang.

The Summit focused on measures to ease military hostilities between the two Koreas. The two sides signed the Agreement on the Implementation of the Historic Panmunjom Declaration in the Military Domain. Both sides decided to expand the cessation of military hostilities to transform the Peninsula into a land of permanent peace and to promptly activate the Inter-Korean Joint Military Committee to prevent accidental military clashes.

The North promised to permanently dismantle the Dongchang-ri missile engine test site and launch platform under the observation of experts from relevant countries. The North expressed its willingness to continue to take additional measures, such as the permanent dismantlement of the nuclear facilities in Yeongbyeon, as the U.S. takes corresponding measures.

The two sides agreed to hold a ground-breaking ceremony within the year for the east-coast and west-coast rail and road connections. They also agreed, to first normalize the Gaeseong industrial complex and the Mt. Geumgang Tourism Project, and to discuss the issue of forming a west coast joint special economic zone and an east coast joint special tourism zone.

Kim changed his schedule that day to welcome Moon at the Pyongyang International Airport and hosted the summit in the headquarters of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea for the first time. Before the meeting, a joint liaison office had been set up at the Kaesong (Gaeseong) Industrial Zone.

Then there was the Singapore Summit between Kim Jong-un and the U.S. President Donald Trump. The Trump-Kim Joint Statement was not smoothly implemented as the Trump Administration pressed the North to, in an impractically short time, abandon its nuclear capabilities and hand over ballistic missile programs as the U.S. wishes. Besides, the U.S. has been unwilling to make concrete commitments to conclude a peace treaty and provide a security guarantee, which the North demands.

Trump’s delay made Kim restless as he was eager to practice the policy adjustments decided at the 7th Party Congress and the Third Plenary Meeting of the Seventh Central Committee of the Workers' Party. DPRK-US relations yielded no practical progress with no breakthrough made in negotiations. Consequently, the North’s longing for softer sanctions could not be fulfilled and there was no way for foreign capitals to flow in to improve its economy. In fact, the Trump Administration has been continuing its negotiations with the North while insisting on sanctions against it since July. Besides, the U.S. has been spreading through the voice of intelligent agents and mass media that the North is still operating its nuclear equipment in secret. It also increased maritime patrol forces with Japan, South Korea, Australia, the UK, and France in the hopes of cutting off the DPRK’s sea routes to prevent its attempts to dodge sanctions by smuggling special supplies and fuels.

Under these circumstances, North Korea can only rely on South Korea, China, and Russia for help.

For months, Kim has had his schedule booked up inspecting production and public facilities and giving instructions for work across the country, signaling his firm determination to shift the focus of governance to economic development. Kim once considered visiting Russia's Vladivostok for the 4th Eastern Economic Forum. He also extended a sincere invitation to Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend the 70th anniversary of the founding of the DPRK on September 9th. In the end, China designated Li Zhanshu, Member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Chairman of the Standing Committee of China's National People's Congress as the special representative of President Xi to visit North Korea. Despite this, the North still made good use of the opportunity to carry on and develop friendship with China.

The delay in the follow-up discussions after the Singapore Summit also upset Moon’s government. In the spirit of idealism, Moon has gambled all this political life on improving the North-South relations, with strong expectations from his people and pressure and increasing doubts from the opposition. Moon began the revival of the Sunshine Policy to greatly improve its relations with the North, however, moving faster than the U.S. with inadequate communications. This elicited discontent from the Trump Administration who had warned it before the third Kim-Moon meeting. Under pressure at home and abroad, Moon had no way out but to push forward for peace in the Peninsula to vindicate his strategies and decisions.

Kim and Moon climbed Mount Paekdu together on the second day of the Summit and raised each other’s hands above their heads for photographs on the shore of the Heaven Lake. Intending to give Moon something to hand over to Trump, Kim agreed to accept international supervision in dealing with nuclear missiles. Having heard of the news, Trump tweeted “Very exciting” as appreciation.

However, it remains a question whether the two Koreas have the power to determine the destiny of the Peninsula.

In the larger picture, the results of the third Kim-Moon summit can only be regarded as a “minor step”. The key to the future of the Peninsula still lies in negotiations between the U.S. and the DPRK. As the U.S. doesn’t intend to guarantee North Korea’s security and the North is not in a position to satisfy the U.S.’ requirements for nuclear missile suspension, other parties can only abide by the sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council’s resolutions. There is almost no way to provide economic support for the North through “grey areas” and it is difficult to incorporate the North into the rest of Northeast Asia.

China is inclined to play a greater role coordinating the Peninsula’s denuclearization. However, the Trump Administration has been keeping a wary eye. With escalating trade conflicts and declining strategic relations between China and the U.S., China is faced with a dilemma about whether to help the U.S. or not.

The US and the DPRK are still keeping in touch on the second Trump-Kim meeting. The meeting may take place when Kim Jong-un attends the UN General Assembly for the first time. Trump could also send a direct invitation to Kim to visit the White House. No matter how it will take place, the ball is back in the U.S.’ court for now. The Peninsula’s peace prospects depends on the sincerity of the U.S.